Super Bowl Betting Public Action Report

by Joey House - 2/7/2024

As everyone knows, the Super Bowl is the single-most watched sporting event in the American sporting calendar. As can be expected, it is also the biggest sports betting event of the year. With such a popular betting market occurring, there will be a significantly larger amount of "square", or novice, money being placed on the game. The question then becomes, how do we exploit all of this "dead" money?

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Tenets of Square Betting

The basic principles that squares usually follow are betting on the favorites and betting the over. The main reason for this is that they usually lack in-depth knowledge of the sport and oftentimes the favored team is the more popular team. They tend to back overs because a lot of people, sharps and squares alike, want to see offensive fireworks and the points that result from them. The average viewer doesn't want to see a Super Bowl like SB LIII, where New England defeated the Los Angeles Rams 13-3. Games like last year's 38-35 Chiefs victory over the Eagles garner more excitement.

In normal games, sharp bettors can take advantage of this square mentality and find value in the opposing side. But a game with the popularity of the Super Bowl changes the dynamics and equations of that thinking.

Playoff betting vs. Regular Season Wagering

An interesting gambling switch occurs once teams reach the postseason. During the regular season, most people take the points when they are betting on the underdog. The line of thinking is that while the favored team might be a better squad, a good underdog can make it a game and keep it within the spread.

During the playoffs, people who back the underdogs are much more inclined to take them on the moneyline, which naturally results in a bigger payout if they win. The logic behind that strategy is playoff teams are usually competitively close and the underdog has as good of a chance to win as the favorite.

Savvy gamblers can use this information in their favor, as it may make favorites a bit more attractive because the books don't want to increase the spread, and the moneyline odds, to accurately depict the proper odds.

Super Bowl LVIII betting has been different

The wagering that has been taking place so far in this Super Bowl has been fascinating to observe. San Francisco opened last week as a short 2-3 point favorite among the sportsbooks. Kansas City, a public team in a non-public location, started attracting loads of the public's hard-earned cash, and the spreads started shrinking quickly and within 24 hours, had dropped to as little as San Francisco minus 1 point.

Since then, some serious sharp action has come in on the Niners' side and we have seen these lines go back up to 2 and even the stray 2.5 out there.

What this is giving us currently is a classic "reverse-line split", where the majority of the action (in both the number of wagers and the amount wagered on) is coming down on one side (Kansas City), yet the spread is moving in the opposite direction, with San Francisco's line increasing.

Strategies going forward

There are ways to attack this line in the next few days for each side. There is an adage that says "The best time to bet on the Super Bowl is the first two hours after the lines have been released. The odds after that have already been trampled on." Observing SB 58 proved that maxim to be 100% accurate. A great deal of money came in on the Chiefs initially, causing the line to shrink, and then the sharp hawks swooped in and got the Niners at their best price.

However, there is still a lot of square, public money out there to be wagered. Oftentimes, a novice gambler may be indecisive or unsure about their wager and want to get as much information as possible. This can often lead to a veritable flood of money coming in on the public's side close to game time. So, with that rationale in hand, if you are backing San Francisco, you may want to wait until closer to game time, as the public money that comes pouring in on Kansas City may shrink the lines a bit, giving you a slight edge in numbers.

Conversely, if you think Patrick Mahomes will win another game as an underdog (he is an impressive 8-3 SU in his career), then you will want to get your money in now before the flood of square money reduces your value.

Whomever you decide to back, make sure that you continue to visit Doc's as we keep you up-to-date with all of the pertinent information you need to make informed and profitable wagers.

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Start:	December 21, 2024 @ 5:00 PM
Expert:	Griffin Murphy
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Super Bowl Betting Public Action Report

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