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Sunday Night Football Picks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys

by Mike Allen - 12/18/2024

Sunday Night Football picks Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys Bucky Irving

Do we have a shootout on the horizon in Big D this Sunday night? Dallas Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush had his best game of the season by a Texas mile in Sunday’s spanking of the Carolina Panthers.

Hold your horses, Cowboys fans. You beat an inflated Panthers team, who had been hanging with some of the best in previous weeks after beating up on the Saints and Giants. That said, this team is playing together and with heart.

Baker Mayfield leads his Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday night focused on avoiding the dreaded let-down game, as they just put up 40 on the Chargers' elite, albeit depleted, defense. Tampa will be going for five wins in a row Sunday night, with the Cowboys trying to win their fourth in five games.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) at Dallas Cowboys (+4)

This line opened at (-3.5) for the Bucs, and we've seen heavy money pour in on the favorites ever since. I'm surprised we're still holding at 4. And with 88% of the money already bet on Tampa, we might be looking at (-4.5) sooner rather than later.

Moneyline Odds

Tampa Bay: -200

Dallas: +170

The Tampa moneyline of (-200) is pricey for a 4-point betting favorite. They're scaring me off at the moment. Let's see if we can justify a Tampa cover, or perhaps we see that shootout we spoke of.

Point Total: 48.5

The point total opened above the key number of 47 at 47.5 and has yet to scare off 94% of the money, comprising 96% of the tickets. We mentioned Rush having his best game of the season, but the resurgence of the Cowboys has primarily been due to their defense getting healthy.

The combination of shutdown cornerback Daron Bland and edge-rushing superstar Micah Parsons on the field together for the first time this season has made a world of difference. Bland returned from a fractured foot about a month ago, and their only loss in that span came in flukey but typical Cowboys fashion to the Bengals.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys Betting Analysis

Another catalytic component to the Cowboys' recent success is running back Rico Dowdle. Including their win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in early October, Dallas is 4-0 when Dowdle carries the ball 19 or more times.

The question we have to ask ourselves next is, can Dallas stay ahead in a shootout with Mayfield's Bucs? 'Dem Boys are designed to play with the lead, especially considering the strengths and weaknesses of their defensive line and the fact that Dak Prescott will be in street clothes.

We've mentioned Mayfield several times already. He won't have Chris Godwin, but Mike Evans is that guy. His matchup with Bland will be the one to watch for Sunday night.

The Tampa quarterback is so much fun to watch that we forget about one of the most underrated backfields in the NFL. Rookie Bucky Irving is at 5.7 yards a carry for the season and 7.0 over his previous three starts. The two to Irving's one, Arizona State alum Richard White, has been good for 4.2/carry all year and is a threat to run the seam like a tight end, beating an overaggressive secondary creeping up on the run. Throw in Mayfield's 5.7/carry, and you have a problem.

Stopping the run is where the Dallas D has struggled this season. I think they get worn down playing from behind, and Irving has another big game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys Betting Pick

The quotes from the Bucs' coaching staff lead me to believe they are in the midst of an identity switch. The leaders realize they'll be playing on the road in the playoffs, far outside their element. Therefore, the least they can do for themselves is become a more physical, run-first team.

The numbers don't lie. They're #1 in the NFL over the past four weeks, rushing for more than 190 yards per game. I like the Bucs (-4) here, but the game plan of spam CeeDee Lamb could lead to a backdoor cover.

Take Irving to go over his rushing yards prop of 72 yards. He was taken out of the Raiders game early due to injury, and they never needed him back. Outside of that, he's gone over his rushing total in every game this year, minus the Bucs' losses to the Chiefs and Ravens, two of the best run-stopping defenses and teams in the league.

Pick: Irving over 72 Yards Rushing (-127)

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