Sunday Night Football Picks: Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
The AFC West has turned out to be quite the strong division. After the first month of the NFL season, the AFC West was not much more than the Kansas City Chiefs and everybody else.
It's now Week 14, and the Chiefs and Chargers are each above 95% to make the postseason. We must remember the Broncos, too, as they are 75% to make the playoffs.
However, the division title is more out of reach for LA and Denver. The Chargers are 15-1, and Denver is 75-1.
I like these teams. They all play good defense. If I had to pick the team I think will struggle the most over the final five games of the year, it's the LA Chargers. They are banged up at their skill positions (WR1 and RB1) on offense. And while that's bad for any team, it's worse for the Chargers because they have no depth on that side of the ball.
Heck, they don't even have a good WR2 or tight end. Justin Herbert, however, has proven he can do without a great game from his running backs to move the ball. He can sling it. He can run it himself, too.
Who he does need, though, is without question. More on that in a moment. Ladd McConkey's playing status is currently "up in the air" and "in doubt" for Sunday night's matchup in Kansas City.
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LA Chargers (-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (-4)
The betting odds for the Sunday Night game opened up at (-5.5) for the home Chiefs. And as expected, money poured in on the Bolts. Why? Well, Kansas City has yet to cover a point spread since mid-October. Why would a struggling offense suddenly catch fire against one of the best defenses in the NFL?
Moneyline Odds
Chargers: +170
Chiefs: -200
Many people think the wheels have slowly been falling off the wagon in KC for a while now, and this week could be a golden opportunity to fade them on the moneyline. Hopefully, that hasn't been your strategy to this point because lately, they win and don't cover. That was more or less the team they were last year, too.
If LA can shut down Isiah Pacheco, they have a good chance at the upset. The weather is now cold, but a warm front is moving in for the weekend.
Point Total: 43
This total opened at 44.5, but I think they were just betting it down so they could hammer it, as 94% of the money has come in on the over. I don't really understand the logic behind that one, but welcome to NFL betting. It's like arguing with your partner. Logic doesn't always work like it should.
LA Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis
The Kansas City Chiefs have become one of, if not the, best run-stopping defenses in the NFL. They're right up there with the Ravens and the Broncos. The strength of the Chargers' defense, though, isn't against the run, where they rank 23rd in the league on the season.
We mentioned McConkey's playing status earlier, and the quotes coming out of LA aren't promising. He has a sprained AC joint in his shoulder that he's been dealing with, albeit still producing. However, the knee sprain from Sunday doesn't look good, especially for a guy so quick and explosive.
We mentioned the Chargers need him. When targeting McConkey, the team's average EPA is among the best in the NFL. However, when targeting anyone else, the EPA drops 85%. Running back J.K. Dobbins is also banged up.
I would actually bet KC this week to cover the spread, but they're missing a key defender, and their secondary hasn't been the same without him. I just read that he sent out a cryptic tweet about a potential return before the end of the season, but he's out for this week.
I like KC's spot and the matchup, but betting on them ATS is challenging after they failed to cover for six consecutive weeks. They've also beaten LA six straight times, if that counts.
LA Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Pick
Let's avoid a side or total in this one and target a player prop. We've teased his name already. I love Pacheco this week to have a breakout game. Andy Reid brought him back slowly last week, giving him and Kareem Hunt seven carries a piece. They were shut down by the surprising best run defense of the previous three weeks, the Las Vegas Raiders, who've only allowed 3.3 yards/carry over that span.
Pacheco broke one for 34 yards, bumping him up to 44 on the seven carries. Hunt had just 15, though, and the team knows who they need to feed to rejuvenate this offense. The writing is on the wall. It's on the piece of paper on your desk. It's on a sticky note on your fridge. KC's offense struggled without him, and now that they've tested it back out, they'll give him plenty more of the carries this week. Let's hope.
His rushing yards total is low at just 51.5 this week. Let's bet he will go over the total while simultaneously taking the pressure off the rest of the team. It's what they need.
Pick: Isiah Pacheco Over 51.5 Yards Rushing: -127
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