Sunday Night Football Picks: Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
Primetime Kirk Cousins needed the Philadelphia Eagles to blow not one, not two, but three chances deep inside the red zone to even have the opportunity to drive his team 70 yards for the game-winning touchdown in what seemed like 17 seconds.
As I was beginning to explain the prevent defense to my girlfriend and how it can prevent the team from winning, Cousins beat me to my point.
That was a massive primetime win. The Falcons are on a short week welcoming the defending Super Bowl Champions to town. This is a classic fade spot for the Falcons. However, with the recent injury to Kansas City running back Isaiah Pacheco, we might see Atlanta hang tough or get their second win in a row at home against an elite team.
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Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons (+3.5)
The betting line opened at (-4.5) for the Chiefs, and we have seen some Atlanta money come in. I don't particularly think it's because of the miraculous comeback and win. It's the fact that, despite the low team point total, Kirk Cousins played quite well.
Unless something off the wall happens, we won’t see this betting line get under 3 points. If it does, every Patrick Mahomes bettor/backer will appear from the shadows, each with 10 Mahomes-esque “cheat code” trends to tell you.
This may not be the week to back the two-time MVP, though. Losing Pacheco is massive for the Chiefs. He was the difference-maker on offense for KC last season.
Point Total: 46.5
Moneyline
Chiefs: -180
Falcons: +150
Chiefs at Falcons Betting Analysis
The Kansas City Chiefs were an abysmal 1/8 on third downs last week in their matchup against the Bengals, who are not a strong defensive team. That isn't a good look, but they still won the game. Mahomes threw two interceptions, and the team still found a way to win. Travis Kelce had one catch for five yards. If that wasn't bad enough, he ran the ball for one yard. The 6-foot-5 future Hall of Famer from Westlake, Ohio, isn't going out like that, though.
He will be a big part of the Chiefs' success this season. People are freaking out over nothing. Kansas City changed their stripes a couple of years ago, becoming a defensive team whose games often went under the point total. They lost a couple of key players, but their defense, at least after Week 2, looks like one of the best in the NFL.
It is the new-look offense that I’m referring to. The additions of Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy have completely changed how opposing defenses game plan against KC.
The Chiefs lost their deep threat when Tyreek Hill left, but they have it back. Hollywood Brown just had successful surgery. He'll return before the end of the season. This offense reminded me of last year's Dolphins team with all the speed. This will open things up for Kelce underneath. He will have a breakthrough performance sooner than later.
It's a good thing the Atlanta Falcons don't have to travel this week, because I know they are sore. I'm not just talking about what we saw on Monday night. We heard those hits! Philly may have found a way to lose this game, but they played an incredibly physical game, cracking the Falcons every chance they got.
How Atlanta handles the speedy receivers will be an x-factor this week. They have been playing two deep safeties and giving up one of the highest catch rates in the league but not allowing a lot of yards.
Chiefs at Falcons Betting Pick
How Atlanta handles the speedy receivers will be an X-factor this week. They have been playing two deep safeties and giving up one of the highest catch rates in the league but not allowing a lot of yards.
This pick is difficult. On one hand, Atlanta is a highly talented team, but they have new parts. They needed something like that winning drive to raise their confidence and chemistry. At the same time, we like to fade teams coming off of an emotional comeback win. We can't forget they're on a short week.
Do the Chiefs sputter without their two-way RB1? Yes, I think they do. Mahomes still makes the plays underneath, taking what the defense gives him, including some shots behind the linebackers to Kelce. This will lead to a lot of clock-chewing drives, likely capped off by Harrison Butker field goals.
Take away the touchdown they shouldn't even have had the opportunity to try for, and Atlanta has put up 25 points in two games this year. I believe they lean on their back, Bijan Robinson, in the running and short passing game. This will bleed the clock as well, leading us to another primetime game of two strong offenses going under the fairly high point total of 46.5.
Both Falcons games went under the point total so far. KC's games went over in the first two weeks. Had they been missing Pacheco, however, I think these games would have gone under.
Pick: Under 46.5 Points
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