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Sunday Night Football Picks: Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings

by Mike Allen - 10/30/2024

Sunday Night Football picks Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings Joe Flacco

I’m digging my flyer on the Colts to win the AFC South at 9-1 after hearing yesterday that the Indianapolis Colts have decided to do the right thing and start Joe Flacco at quarterback until further notice. It’ll be an uphill battle making up three games over their next nine. But they’ve made a commitment to winning, which brings me to my next point.

As much as Flacco’s return made me smile, it’s making me rethink my pick for this game. Anthony Richardson versus Vikings’ Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores coming off two losses on a long week is not a fair fight.

Thankfully, adjusting on the fly is something we’re used to. Flacco makes the Colts a much more competitive team. However, he has his weaknesses. More on those in a moment. Let’s see how far these betting lines have moved.

Indianapolis Colts (+5) at Minnesota Vikings (-5)

We opened up at (-6.5) for the Vikings, and this one has dropped a bit since the QB change. We may see it move even more, but it’s hard to say. Maybe there’s some buyback. Arguments can be made that Flacco may not match up that well with the Minnesota defense.

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Moneyline Odds

Colts: +195

Vikings: -245

Leadership’s commitment to winning may be enough to energize a tired Colts team. Whether or not it helps them catch fire this week, it’s a spark. For the moneyline, I think it’s Indy or pass.

Point Total: 46.5

We haven’t seen as much adjustment to the point total as we did the spread or moneyline since Richardson’s benching. This could be telling, and it does line up with the direction I’m leaning for this game.

Colts at Vikings Betting Analysis

Minnesota comes into this Sunday Night Football game off of a mini-bye, which, depending on injuries, can be more advantageous to win your next game than a full week off. You have enough time to recover but not enough time to get lazy. This is a fine line that many of us walk, but I believe NFL athletes are the best at it.

On the Colts’ sideline, I am a fan of head coach Shane Steichen, particularly his ability as a play-caller. However, that’s about where it stops for Indy in the coaching matchup. We spoke of Vikings’ DC Flores already. This guy will be the difference.

How? Well, simply do what he does best, blitz the quarterback. After that, he may blitz some more. This is where Flacco could hurt his team tremendously. There’s good reason he hasn’t started more than nine games in a season since 2017. The guy is a statue in the pocket. He’s aware in there, but those 40-year-old feet just don’t get moving as quickly as they used to.

The key for the Colts will be getting Jonathan Taylor going early. I expect the Vikings’ offense to come out hot in the first half as they’ve done all season, especially off that break and likely some well-scripted plays to execute against a weak, albeit healthy defense.

Speaking of health, the Vikings get back tight end T.J. Hockerson this week for the first time in nearly a year after tearing ligaments in his knee. He says he is bigger, faster, and stronger than ever. It’ll be interesting to see how many targets he gets as Minnesota is “last” in the league with just 27 pass attempts per game.

Colts at Vikings Betting Pick

While some people may see the value on the Colts here, I think it’s a great time to buy-low on the Vikings. Even after losing their last two, they’re more than 50 points up against the spread over just seven contests. That’s more than a touchdown ATS/game.

Minnesota is just as healthy as the Colts coming into this one. Steichen may need to call one of his best games with a 40-year-old statue at quarterback against possibly the best blitzing DC in football.

I love the Vkings’ extra rest in this spot against Indy, who has to travel after such a hard-fought and more importantly, meaningful, division loss to the Texans. The Vikings have been hot starters all year long leading the league, by far, in 1st quarter points with 11.4/game. Even on the short week, after getting beat up and their feelings hurt against the Lions, they put up 14 against the Rams.

Minnesota is also 2nd in the NFL behind the Chargers allowing a minuscule 1.4 points in the 1st quarter. Give me these stats, a healthy offense, and the better coaching staff off the mini-bye for the win!

Pick: Vikings 1st Quarter: -0.5 (-110) 

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