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Sunday Night Football Picks: Detroit Lions at Houston Texans

by Mike Allen - 11/7/2024

Sunday Night Football picks for Detroit Lions at Houston Texans Jared Goff

This Sunday night from H-Town, the Detroit Lions visit the Texans for just the second C.J. Stroud primetime game of the season. He isn’t off to the best start after falling to a highly motivated Jets team on the road. However, remember that game took place this past Thursday, so the Texans are on a mini-bye.

It couldn’t have come at a better time, either, with the most destructive force in football coming to town. Even though the Kansas City Chiefs remain undefeated, the Detroit Lions have been the talk of the NFL.

Head coach Dan Campbell is old school when dealing with his players, as well as his smash-mouth style, but can switch on the fly to the new school when he needs to. If it's 4th-and-2 on his own 42, he trusts the analytics and goes for it.

Having a quarterback as efficient as Jared Goff is perfect for this team. Goff knows he doesn’t have to be the best player on the field to get his team a win. In his last five games, Goff is 88/105 which is an 84% completion percentage, with a TD-INT-ratio of 11:0. Detroit is 7-1 this season, and they’ve covered the spread in each of their victories.

The question we have to ask ourselves with Goff and Detroit each week is how long they can keep this up.

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Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Houston Texans (+3.5)

This line opened up at (-2.5) for Detroit, and the move they made for Za'Darius Smith before the trade deadline, along with the natural love for the Lions, took this across the key number of 3. That's a big move, especially with one of the best home teams in the league as a dog.

Smith isn't practicing until Friday, but I think that's fine. He's a vet, and a lot of his plays will be one-on-one with the defender. There isn't a great deal for him to learn compared to some of the wide receivers that were dealt.

A lot of people love the Texans here at this new number.

Moneyline Odds

Detroit Lions: -190

Houston Texans: +160

The 3.5 is tasty. Are the books trying to scare off Detroit backers, or are they hanging that hook so that bettors will ignore the moneyline? If you're going to bet against a 7-1 ATS team that has covered in every win, take the dog straight up, especially at (+160). That's nearly 80% more profit.

Point Total: 49

We could look at this game from a different angle and just take them to go over the total. Both teams’ offenses are clearly their strengths.

Detroit Lions at Houston Texans Betting Analysis

I think it's time to sell on the Lions. Sure, the recent scoreboards for this team have been ridiculous. What's really strange, though, are the box scores. They beat their division rival last week on the road and playing outdoors. The yards/play averages were 6.6 to 4.7 in favor of the Pack!

Oh, and what about the 52-14 blowout of the Tennessee Titans? Surely, the Lions must have dominated every facet of the game, but no. They won the turnover battle 4-0 and had two massive returns on a punt and a kickoff. Detroit was outgained by the Titans nearly 2-1. They had 225 total yards on offense and just 61 through the air.

Houston disappointed fans and bettors by falling to the Jets, but New York is an entirely different team with Haason Reddick finally playing on defense.

Detroit Lions at Houston Texans Betting Pick

Houston is 4th in the NFL in yards per play allowed, but the strength is certainly in the pass defense and pass rush. They are 24th in the NFL defending the run. That isn't a good look. However, they have Nico Collins back this week, and the offense is strong enough at home to get out ahead of Detroit.

It's definitely easier said than done, but the Texans may be the team to do it. Turn the Lions into a pass-first team and ride Joe Mixon through the second half. Wow, I like the over 49 points as well as Houston (+3.5) and the Texans' moneyline odds at (+160).

Houston is near the bottom of the league over the past three games, allowing more than 5 yards per carry. Detroit isn't a great defensive team. However, their stats are skewed because they've been exchanging yards for time quite often.

This one is tough, but I’ll go with my gut and gamble a bit.

Pick: Houston Texans Moneyline (+160)

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