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Sunday Night Football Picks: Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers

by Mike Allen - 10/2/2024

Sunday Night Football picks Dallas Cowboys vs Pittsburgh Steelers Dak Prescott

America's Team, the Dallas Cowboys, limp into this week's Sunday Night Football matchup with a Pittsburgh Steelers team surprisingly sitting at 3-1. The Steel Curtain is back this year, as Mike Tomlin has one of -- if not the -- best defenses in football through the first month of the regular season.

Mike McCarthy's Cowboys don't look like a Super Bowl contender, but they have managed a couple of wins and sit at 2-2, tied with Philly for 2nd place in the NFC East. They aren't as good as they have been the past few years. However, they are still the same team in that they beat who they should and lose to teams who are on another level. They got past the Giants and the Browns but were dominated by the Saints and Ravens.

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Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

Vegas opened the betting line for this game at just (-1) for the Steelers. After the Cowboys' lackluster performance on Thursday night in a 20-15 win over the Giants, sharp bettors are becoming increasingly hesitant to throw money their way.

As for the public who aren’t Steeler fans, I think they’ll see the plus money next to America’s team and throw a few bucks on the dog.

Those who decide to dig just another couple of inches will find the injury report, and it does not look good for Dallas. The offense is pretty healthy, but not the defense.

Point Total: 44

This line just moved an entire point from 43 in the past few minutes. The Cowboys will be without their two best defenders, Micah Parsons, who has a fresh high ankle sprain, as well as DeMarcus Lawrence, who's been placed on injured reserve with a foot sprain.

Normally, I would lean towards the under in a game like this, but Pittsburgh is primed for their biggest scoring week of the season thus far.

Moneyline

Cowboys: +120

Steelers: -140

Cowboys at Steelers Betting Analysis

The Cowboys' pass rush has been one of the few bright spots for the team so far this season. They sacked Deshaun Watson six times in the opener and now rank 3rd in the NFL in Hurry %. In their two wins, Lawrence and Parsons have combined for four sacks. Dallas isn't even deep at the positions, either. They had to sign a guy from the Bengals' practice squad this week. The team already has problems stopping the run. They rank in the bottom five of the league in multiple run-stopping metrics. Compare that with Pittsburgh, who's three in the NFL in the same stats. Who do we bet on? The team that can run and stop the run. Things don't get much better when we look at the offensive rushing statistics. In fact, it gets significantly worse. The Dallas Cowboys are the worst rushing team through the first four weeks of the season, averaging just above 75 yards per game on just 3.2 yards/carry.

Pittsburgh beats you by shutting down your run. They match up well with Dallas, who could muster only 80 yards against the Giants, who may be the only team worse than the Cowboys defending the run. Dak Prescott has put up some numbers this year throwing the ball, but his yards/attempt and completion percentage rank in the bottom third of the league.

Going back to the pass-rushing metrics, Dallas had a higher Hurry % than Pittsburgh, but the Steelers have knocked down and sacked the quarterback more often.

If Pittsburgh had won on Sunday against Indy, maybe this could be a letdown spot for them at home. However, I'm not buying that.

Cowboys at Steelers: Sunday Night Football Picks

With Justin Fields coming off of his best game of the year, where he threw for over 300 yards and ran for two touchdowns, the Steelers' confidence in their offense should be at a season high. We already have what we need to bet a team under a field goal. They're at home. They are well-coached. The visiting squad is a bad road team who will be without their two best defensive players. The Steelers' defense is designed to make you throw the ball, and that's the Cowboys' only chance to win. Pittsburgh doesn't have the strongest running game to hold a lead, but they've still found a way to cover the spread in all three of their wins. Fields is improving every week at making plays with his legs, whether it's Patrick Mahomes' style to set something up downfield or it's more Lamar Jackson where he simply scurries for the first with his feet. You might have guessed the Steelers are a better 1st half than a 2nd half team, but they're actually outsourcing opponents 46-16 over quarters three and four. We've also heard rumors as early as Week 3 about the lack of discipline from the team. How ready will they be for the first two quarters, coming off a long week with the deep wound of losing Lawrence and Parsons still fresh? Still, we'll take the 22% pay cut this week and bet the Steelers on the moneyline at (-140).

Pick: Steelers Moneyline (-140)

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