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Sunday Night Football Picks: Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants

by Mike Allen - 10/9/2024

Sunday Night Football picks Cincinnati Bengals vs New York Giants Daniel Jones

The heartbroken Cincinnati Bengals head east for a Sunday Night Football matchup with the New York Giants this week. Cincy was so close to pulling even with the Baltimore Ravens at 2-3, but a combination of terrible defense and questionable coaching has left them sitting in the AFC North basement at 1-4. Adding insult to injury, they aren't alone down there. If you're in the same conversation as the Browns, someone needs to be fired. It won't be Joe Burrow. We know that. He's off to the best start of his career, but for what?

The Giants were without Devin Singletary and Malik Neighbors last week, yet Daniel Jones led them to a massive road win in Seattle. They've made the 5-hour flight back and dealt with those three hours of eastward travel jet lag. What I want to know, though, is if they're dealing with any other types of hangovers.

After a massive field goal block for the win, the G-Men must be flying high. Sharp bettors make good money fading teams like the Giants, who aren't used to winning and could have a letdown spot at home the following week. It would be easier to fade them if they were the better team/betting favorites. However, I believe New York will be up for this primetime game, as they have the opportunity to get to .500, which is pretty competitive in the NFC East.

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Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at New York Giants (+3.5)

The lookahead line for this game was (-5) for Cincinnati. The 1.5-point move is significant. However, I wouldn't run to the betting window screaming recency bias. The sportsbooks can't trust what has been the worst defense in the NFL to win by more than a field goal on the road. There are several NFL teams who struggle to stop the run or shut down the pass, but the Bengals can't stop either!

Moneyline

Bengals: -180

Giants: +150

Point Total: 47.5

What is up with this point total? The Bengals are clearly an over team with the worst defense and a top-ranked passing attack. One would imagine this total could be over 51 or higher. While it's our job to identify bad lines, this one is far enough away that it seems fishy to me. The Giants are coming off a 7-sack day in Seattle, and Joe Burrow was knocked down nine times by the Ravens. Dexter Lawrence coming up the middle or Kayvon Thibodeaux around the corner could knock them out of field goal range once or twice. The Giants are fun to watch simply for their pass rush.

Bengals at Giants Betting Analysis

I like the rhythm Daniel Jones has been in lately for New York. Losing your WR1 and not missing a beat offensively is impressive for any quarterback. There are exceptions, but I've noticed that losing your top wideout is usually worse for an offense than being without their top ball carrier. Jones has neither in a game across the country opposite a defensive head coach.

Thankfully for Jones and head coach Brian Daboll, they called on Tyrone Tracy Jr. to step up into the RB1 role, and he broke out for 128 yards.

Bengals at Giants Betting Pick

There are still holes in this Giants team, but they’re one or two plays away from being on a 3-game winning streak. Their QB has 6 TDs to just 1 INT over his last four games. You have the top-performing rookie wide receiver in the league. The pass rush could be the best in the NFL.

However, a wise man once said you're only as strong as your weakest link. The weak link for New York is stopping the run. Their D-line is built to rush the quarterback. For that game plan to be most effective, you must have the lead or at least keep the game close. Here's the thing, though. Priority #1 is stopping Burrow. In that process, the Bengals running game gets established. That at least keeps the defense fresh and in solid field position.

I want to get behind Burrow here, but we have belabored the point already. Their defense is terrible. And until I see an improvement, laying points on the road on the Bengals just seems like a silly public play. The over could backfire if the Giants are winning late in the game and that pass rush gets going. With both teams' backup running backs playing better than the starters, though, the rush shouldn't regress. I don't understand the low point total, but I don't care. Light'em up, boys!

Pick: Over 47.5

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