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Sunday Night Football Picks: Chicago Bears at Houston Texans

by Mike Allen - 9/12/2024

Sunday Night Football picks Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans Caleb Williams

In a rematch of the 2024 Hall of Fame Game, the home-favorite Houston Texans will be out for "revenge" against the team that beat them in the first preseason game of the year by a score of 21-17.

We aren't sure about the result yet, but this week's Sunday Night Football matchup is a completely different matchup than what we saw a month ago in Canton.

Williams showed us last week that he is still adjusting to the speed of the game, and that's cool. That is normal for first-year players, especially starting quarterbacks. Stroud may be the exception, but I don't want to place too much weight on the opener for the Bears. However, they are downgraded at least a notch on almost everyone's board going into Week 2.

 No matter the result on Sunday night, this quarterback matchup has the potential to be the gift that keeps on giving in the future.

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Chicago Bears at Houston Texans Betting Odds

Bears: +6

Texans: -6

The betting odds for this matchup opened at just (-3.5) for the Houston Texans. Both the pros and the joes are on Houston here, with 85% of the tickets and 90% of the money on the Texans.

Is this your classic overreaction of Week 1 by the market, or is the betting public seeing this game for what it is, the Houston Texans as a better team with a non-rookie, high-level quarterback playing at home?

Moneyline

Bears: +225

Texans: -275

Point Total

Over 45.5: -110

Under 45.5: -110

The point total for Sunday Night Football opened up at 46.5, and the expected primetime under money has come in. I say expected because if you blindly bet the unders for every primetime game since 2019, you would have won at a 60% clip. Last season, this trend was at 70%.

"When in doubt, take the under" sounds like such a lazy strategy, but these primetime point spreads can get hit hammered. And if we don't like the number, we can't bet it. Never bet bad numbers.

Bears at Texans Betting Analysis

What were we just saying about betting bad numbers? Both the public and the sharps didn't care when this was at 3.5. They hammered the Texans, and I don't see any buyback on Chicago unless it gets to 7.

How do these two match up on paper? Houston's quarterback situation, as of right now, is infinitely better than the Bears'. I don't particularly rate one coaching staff higher than the other. It's difficult not to attribute a great deal of the Texans' success to their 2nd-year starter at QB.

Both front offices have done outstanding jobs lately. The Bears drafted a wide receiver in the first round and signed Keenan Allen in the offseason to complement their WR1, D.J. Moore. Houston leveled up their pass rush and secondary, as well as one of the biggest offseason signings in the league when they locked up Stefon Diggs. The former 1st Team All-Pro was targeted six times in Week 1. He snagged all of them, including one for a touchdown.

What is keeping me from the under bet here is the Texans’ massive success running the ball with Joe Mixon. Couple that with a Bears defense, who is far better equipped to deal with the pass, and I am liking the (-6) on Houston.

Bears at Texans Betting Pick

Chicago needed a miracle to win and cover in Week 1. They are not the team we thought they were, at least not yet. The Bears look like a great under team, at this point, with potentially an elite defense and a rookie quarterback. The kicker that got me to lay 6 points here for the Texans was how well they stopped the run against Indy. Jonathan Taylor barely averaged 3 yards/carry, nearly two full yards off his career average.

Houston will wear down the Bears defense, winning the time of possession battle 2-1, and lean on Mixon down the stretch to seal the 27-17 victory.

Pick: Texans (-6)

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