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Sunday Night Football Picks: Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens

by Mike Allen - 9/25/2024

Sunday Night Football picks Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens Lamar Jackson

The Buffalo Bills survived their super sandwich spot this past Monday night when they hosted and roasted the Jacksonville Jaguars, 47-10. Quarterback Josh Allen looks like an MVP candidate. Who expected that after losing his WR1 and WR2 in the offseason?

Many pundits pick for the 2024 NFL MVP, the Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson, has been his usual self. In Week 1, he couldn’t make the throws he needed to beat the Chiefs, but he’s been his normal self, more or less, completing a high percentage of his throws while protecting and running the ball effectively.

Baltimore was in jeopardy of falling to 0-3 for the first time in nearly a decade when they visited Dallas on Sunday. The team came out as expected, absolutely en fuego, carrying a 28-6 lead into the 4th quarter. They let their foot off the gas but still got the final first down they needed to win and even covered. The brightest spot for the Ravens so far in 2024 is the dominance of Derrick Henry on the ground. Since the Chiefs game planned against him in the opener, Henry has averaged 5.4 yards on 43 carries, albeit against weak run defenses. The Bills have looked incredible, especially last week. A letdown has to be coming, right? There's a lot to ingest about this spot for both teams. This is a fascinating matchup, one we could see again early in 2025.

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Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

The betting odds for this game have moved in favor of the home favorite Ravens, who opened at just (-1.5). It might surprise some as the Bills win is more recent, but the Ravens showed the same level of domination through three quarters in a notoriously tough place to play in Dallas.

Total: 46.5

If you aren't taking advantage of early-season unders, you're missing out. On the surface, this Monday night game looks like it would go over the total. However, we took the under 46.5 in the Chiefs vs Falcons game last Sunday night. And even though both offenses were moving the ball, the clock looked like it was running on double time. The two veteran QBs were efficient and, luckily for us, hardly ever needed to hurry.

The average number of plays in an NFL game is 153. That’s 20% more than we saw with KC and Atlanta. We may see something similar this Sunday with the Bills and Ravens.

Moneyline

Buffalo Bills: +115

Baltimore Ravens: -135

Bills at Ravens Betting Analysis

I said it a minute ago. This game fascinates me. You know what else fascinates me? The meaning of life. I have tried to pick a side here for a couple of days now and haven't been able to move the needle more than 60% in either direction.

For example, Ravens' kicker Justin Tucker missed a field goal in three consecutive games. That's something the 12-year starter has never done.

Stats are beginning to mean something in Week 4, and both teams have 1s next to their name. Baltimore is #1 in yards/play, while Buffalo is #1 in points/game. The Ravens are #1 in the league running the ball. However, the Bills are #2 at stopping said run.

Looking back at Buffalo's schedule, they did take advantage of weak pass defenses through their first three games. The Bills had only 247 total yards against Miami. I see the Ravens' defense making them a one-dimensional offense, minus some long runs from Allen to keep the chains moving until they don't. From there, I believe Baltimore can bend but not break. People are seeing the Ravens' atrocious stats against the pass, but these numbers are inflated and will probably level out around 15th in the league.

Can Allen carve them up? Sure, but we're yet to see his band of no-name receivers go up against a strong defense against the run, the pass, or both. We could see more punts from the Bills in this game than we've seen all season.

Bills at Ravens Betting Pick

We're looking at a 60% chance of rain for this one. The East Coast has been and will be battered by the remnants of these northward seasonal storms for a while.

The Bills have yet to face a team that wants to run the ball down their throats. Baltimore does just that, eating up the clock in the process. This forces Allen to play from behind, leading to him coming back down to earth a tad on the MVP talk due to two turnovers. He's led the league in this statistic before. In the end, Justin Tucker is the hero in the rain after practicing double all week, and the Ravens win 23-20.

Pick: Under 46.5 Points

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