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Sunday Night Football Picks: Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders

by Mike Allen - 12/24/2024

Sunday Night Football picks for Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders Bijan Robinson

The rookie quarterback matchup we didn't know we've been waiting all year to see is finally in front of us this Sunday night when the freshly first-place Falcons fly up to DC to play the Commanders.

The Atlanta Falcons are a new team, and I don't expect them to be much of a threat if they win the NFC West and make the postseason. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are heavy betting favorites (-410) to beat the Panthers on Sunday afternoon. However, if Dave Canales continues to have Baker Mayfield's number and Bryce Young pulls off some magic, the Falcons would have the chance to clinch the division on Sunday night.

With Kirk Cousins now due to be cut before they have to pay him a roster bonus in March, Michael Penix Jr. is now the Falcons starting quarterback for the foreseeable future. The soon-to-be 25-year-old looked poised in his first start. However, with the defense recovering two fumbles early, he was aided in getting a lead and thus didn't have to throw the ball down the field to win.

Atlanta didn’t have a stellar day running the ball -- 34 carries for 124 yards -- but the Giants were lining up against it and making Penix Jr. beat them. He was efficient, though, throwing for 202 yards on 18/27 attempts.

Thankfully for them, the Commanders are at home this week because traveling to play a primetime game after such an emotional win over the first-place Eagles just days prior would be cruel. It's still a big ask, but the Commanders have been in this position before. I know you haven't forgotten about their hail mary to not only beat but also break the Chicago Bears.

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Atlanta Falcons (+4) at Washington Commanders (-4)

The betting odds opened at (-3.5) for Washington. And, as you might expect, some professional money has come in on the Commanders, but the point total was hammered the hardest.

Point Total: 47.5

Yes, you guessed it. We opened below the key number of 47, maybe the most key number in all of NFL point totals, and the books immediately took 87% of the tickets and 93% of the money on the over.

Even though we would be on the right side of this key number, the money percentage was relatively polar. If anything, we should look to tail it before it climbs higher. I'm seeing 48 at the sharper Las Vegas sportsbooks already.

Moneyline Odds

Washington Commanders: -210

Atlanta Falcons: +175

With the Commanders taking roughly 90% of both the tickets and money so far, the moneyline has climbed up a bit from (-185) where it opened.

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders Betting Analysis

Much more will be asked of Penix Jr. this week. And while he has the ability to adapt, it may be too much, too soon. It's the season's final two weeks, and the team is playing for the division. It helped to play the Giants first to get that elevated practice squad feel before he deals with playoff-caliber teams like the Commanders.

The key for the Atlanta Falcons isn't Penix Jr.'s performance. It's establishing the running game with Bijan Robinson and then shifting the rhythm to the zone schemes for Tyler Allgier to get going downhill. Washington has been weak against the run all year, the Achilles heel of their defense.

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders Betting Pick

For our pick this week, I want no part of the Commanders at more than a field goal, and I can't pull the trigger with the "true rookie" on the road in what's essentially a playoff game, as he plays the role of the savior on top of that. No thank you.

What I can do is give you the #2 scoring 1st half offense that's also the #3 1st half scoring defense at (-2.5). Atlanta was middle of the pack at scoring the ball in the 1st half, but we have to throw those numbers away with the new QB. Their defense through the first two quarters, however, ranks 26th after four months of football. Let's sit back and allow the numbers to work for us.

Pick: Washington Commanders 1st Half (-2.5)

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