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Season Total Props and Predictions for Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the New York Yankees

by Mike Allen - 3/14/2024

Aaron Judge season predictions stat totals

The lineup for the New York Yankees is bringing back memories of the 1961 team with Mickey Mantle, Yogi Berra, and Roger Maris. I'm not that old, but I can't tell you how many times I have heard my dad rattle off every player and stat line from that era.

I was surprised but rooted hard for Aaron Judge to break Roger Maris’s (Let’s call it a team record) of 61 home runs. He said he didn’t think Judge was on any performance enhancers because he may be the best athletic specimen to ever hit in the Majors.

Standing 6-foot-7 and weighing in at over 280 pounds, Judge could have played at a high level in the professional sport of his choosing.

He was hampered by injury for a lot of last season, but he still managed an on-base percentage over .400 and hit 37 home runs.

This season, he will be hitting 3rd in the lineup, as of now, protecting a new teammate in the 2 spot.

Enter Juan Soto. The former Washington National and San Diego Padre is still young and underrated if you ask me. He gets on base as well as anyone in the league and can go power for power with the heaviest hitters.

2024 looks to be a fun one for Yankee fans. Let’s look at some of the season total props for Judge and Soto and from there, make some betting predictions for our pockets.

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Aaron Judge Runs Scored

Over 105.5: -115

Under 105.5: -115

Judge, if he stays healthy, can and should surpass 105 runs scored for the 2024 regular season. It is important to note, however, that "can" and "should" can be bad words in sports betting.

I teach my students that "can't" is a bad word, but in this business, "can't" has been responsible for more money saved than lost. Sometimes, that's what it's about. Professional poker players pass on 25% of the hands dealt their way.

With that said, there are some rumblings of a nagging injury to start the season for the Yankees slugger. I don't put much account into that, though. This is Spring Training, and the media needs something to talk about.

Judge has only had two seasons in his career when he crossed home plate more than 100 times. Maybe he can go over the home run total, which we will get to next, but I am going under on 105.5 runs scored.

Pick: Under

Aaron Judge Home Runs

Over 44.5: -140

Under 44.5: -110

We are just one unhealthy season removed from Judge hitting 62 home runs. He was on pace to hit another 60 last season, averaging better than 1 homer per 10 at-bats.

This was with teams pitching around him. We will get to Soto's walks/on-base percentage in a moment, but rest assured, Judge will come to the plate plenty of times with someone on first base.

The over is juiced up to (-140) now, but we will probably be looking at the same odds throughout the season but for 54.5 or more home runs.

Pick: Over

Juan Soto Home Runs

Over 36.5: -115

Under 36.5: -115

How many home runs will Soto hit in 2024? Well, it would be a career-high…

I am leaning towards the under, but Yankee Stadium does have that porch in right field that will help the left-handed Soto's power numbers. I just don't think the Yankees brought him in to be a rally killer.

They got a player with a career on-base percentage of .421 to hit in front of the best power hitter in the league. This one could be close, but the Dominican superstar played in every single game last season and managed the best total of his career with 35 dingers.

Pick: Under

Juan Soto RBIs

Over 105.5: -115

Under 105.5: -115

Soto could get triple-digit RBIs every year that he stays healthy, but the guy just doesn't swing the bat. He has led the major leagues in walks each of the past three seasons.

This is the first time, however, that he will have someone like Judge hitting behind him. It is a double-edged sword, though, for us. Does he continue to be the pickiest player in baseball? Or does he try to clear the bases for Judge?

I am sticking with logic and history on this one. Soto has only eclipsed the 100 RBI mark twice.

Pick: Under

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