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Weekly Public Action Football Betting Report with Predictions

by Joey House - 8/30/2024

Football betting public action report Will Howard Ohio State

Welcome back to this year's edition of the Football Betting Public Action Report. Monitoring the odds market is an essential tool in the sports investor's arsenal of weapons. Having the ability to understand where the "sharp" money is going can help you in two different ways: it can allow you to find trends that can be exploited in slower-moving books and, just as importantly, help you identify situations where you can prevent yourself from making a bad wager.

In college football betting, reverse line moves occur when the betting line shifts against where most public bets are placed, indicating that significant bets from knowledgeable or "sharp" bettors influence the line. This phenomenon often suggests that these bettors have deeper insights or information that is not widely available, potentially due to factors like insider knowledge or strategic analysis that are not immediately obvious to the casual observer. For instance, if a game starts with Notre Dame favored by 7 points, and despite 75% of bets coming in on Notre Dame, the line drops to Notre Dame being a 6-point favorite, this shift implies that large bets from respected bettors are on USC, hinting at a perceived value in betting against the public consensus. Bettors often look for these movements to gain an edge, betting on the side where the line moved, assuming the sharps have identified value.

I've identified reverse line movement in six games. While we will not wager on every one, we'll provide the complete list for tracking purposes so you can see how these movements play out and potentially use them to inform your betting decisions. All times listed are in the Eastern Standard Time zone.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Akron vs. Ohio State (-48.5/58) Saturday 3:30 p.m. CBS/Paramount+

This example illustrates the concept of a "reverse line move" perfectly. Ohio State is one of a handful of public favorites and, as such, will usually garner the majority of wagers. However, some "smart" money that books respect has taken the side of the big dog, Akron. While 64% of the wagers and 61% of the money has come in on Ohio State, the spread, which had opened at 50.5 points, has shrunk slightly to 48.5. On paper, this doesn't appear to be much of a contest, as the Zips only return nine starters from a team that went 2-10 last year. However, even though the Buckeyes are one of the early-season favorites to win a National Championship, they have both a new quarterback (Kansas State transfer Will Howard) as well as a new offensive coordinator, with Chip Kelly stepping down as the UCLA head coach to take a job calling X's and O's in Columbus. As we saw in the Florida State-Georgia Tech game last week, sometimes it takes a while to get all the new players and coaches on the same page. I'm not calling for an upset or something crazy like that, but Chip Kelly's offensive system is incredibly complex, and I think there will be a steep learning curve. A learning curve that causes missed assignments, routes to run wrong, and potential turnovers. All of which are kryptonite to a nearly seven-touchdown spread. PICK: Akron +48.5

Western Kentucky vs Alabama (-31.5/59.5) Saturday 7:00 p.m. ESPN

This game is practically a carbon copy of the Ohio State contest, as Alabama is an incredibly popular team. The spread opened with the Crimson Tide being favored by 32.5 points, and even though Bama has received 89% of the wagers and a whopping 93% of the money, the spread has shrunk to 31.5 points. Alabama, though, has a few more obstacles to overcome than the Buckeyes do. First, this is the first game with their new head coach, Kalen DeBoer, who was brought in from the University of Washington to replace the legendary Nick Saban. This won't be easy, but the most challenging test to overcome will be from Western Kentucky itself. The Hilltoppers return nine starters on offense, including their leading rusher, Elijah Young. Head coach Tyson Helton also brought in transfer QB TJ Finley from Texas State. Mr. Finley is a fascinating subject, as he has played for both LSU and Auburn, so he is very familiar with the Crimson Tide's defensive sets. Western Kentucky never has a problem scoring on offense; they have difficulty stopping the opposing offenses from scoring. The Hilltoppers are accustomed to being large road dogs who lose the games straight-up (SU) but are successful Against-The-Spread (ATS). In the nine games where they have been road dogs by four touchdowns or more, they are 0-9 SU but 6-2-1 ATS. PICK: Western Kentucky +31.5

The four other games that feature reverse line moves are as follows:

UTEP vs. Nebraska (-27.5/49) Sat. 3:30 p.m.

Connecticut vs. Maryland (-20.5/45) Sat. Noon

Clemson vs. Georgia (-11.5/48.5) Sat. Noon

James Madison (-9.5/48) Sat. 8:00 p.m.

In those four contests, the spreads all opened larger than the current lines, and the majority of the action and handle has landed on the favorites, yet the lines have all shrunk. Next week, in addition to recapping how our two wagers performed, we'll relay the results of these four other games. Good luck!

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