Weekly Public Action Football Betting Report with Predictions

by Joey House - 9/5/2024

Football betting public action report Jeremiyah Love Notre Dame

Welcome to Week Two of the Football Betting Public Action Report. We analyze the lines for the upcoming football games each week, looking for "reverse line movement." A reverse line move is one in which the spread moves in the opposite direction of the betting market, often indicating "smart money" coming in on the opposite side.

In the official Week 1 of the college football season, we identified six games that qualified as reverse line moves, as the percentage of bets and money were on one side while the line movement was on the other. We only used two of those games as our official plays, and we were correct. Our plays went 1-1, with Akron being the lone winner, and the four others listed went 0-4.

Even though the NFL starts this week, I don't analyze Week 1 because those lines have been active for months. The PAR is most effective when the lines are fresh and dynamic. Rest assured, I will include any NFL games, if warranted, starting next week. It's a busy week for the PAR, as Saturday's slate of games features eight contests that meet our criteria. For the record, if a game is 50% in either wagers made or money bet, I do not include it in the list.

All times are Eastern Standard Timezone.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Akron vs. Rutgers (-22.5/39.5) Sat. Noon BTN

Rutgers opened as a 25-point favorite. However, despite receiving 71% of the wagers and 55% of the handle, the line has dropped almost a field goal in Akron's direction. The Zips cashed our only winning ticket in last week's PAR, as they covered the 48-point spread against Ohio State by the hook. While the Buckeyes were clearly the dominant team, they were also the benefactors of two defensive touchdowns. They were actually a few yards below their season average from a year ago. Rutgers dispatched their FCS opponent, Howard University, 44-7. I love taking underdogs when the total is so low. The Scarlet Knights are 2-1 in their last three road games when underdogs of 21+ points. With this number still north of 21, this looks like a solid PAR bet. PICK: Akron +22.5

Temple vs. Navy (-12.5/43) Sat. 3:30 p.m. CBS Sports Network (CBSSN)

The public has been quite clear that they are fans of Navy, as 73% of the wagers and 72% of the money has come in on the side of the Midshipmen. The books, however, are less enamored with the Naval Academy and have reduced the opening line from 13 to 12.5 points. Temple was annihilated by Oklahoma 51-3, while Navy sunk an FCS opponent, Bucknell, 49-21. The last 10 times these conference rivals have met, both teams have won five games. Temple, however, is 7-3 ATS over that stretch and 11-5 over the last 16 lined games. In this case, the public needs to consider the quality of opposition. The Owls won just one game in conference last season, against the Midshipmen last November. I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen again. PICK: Temple +12.5

Northern Illinois vs. Notre Dame (-28/47.5) Sat. 3:30 p.m. NBC/Peacock

Notre Dame is perhaps the most public college team in the country, as evidenced by the large 86% of the action taken. The money side of the equation is as pronounced, with a small 55% majority coming in on the Fighting Irish. Again, the books are not so easily swayed by sentimentality, and the opening spread of the Irish laying 31 points has decreased by a field goal to 28. The Fighting Irish are sky-high from their solid win at Texas A&M, and Northern Illinois blew out in-state FCS opponent Western Illinois 54-15. Even though the Huskies played an inferior team, the offensive stats they generated were eye-popping: 706 total yards of offense (394 passing, 312 rushing) and eight touchdowns. Notre Dame's defense was quite stout against the Aggies, but I think they'll face a more offensive threat from Northern Illinois. The Huskies have been four touchdown road dogs seven times in their history, losing every game SU but going 4-3 ATS. PICK: Northern Illinois +28

Kansas vs. Illinois (+5.5/55.5) Sat. 7:00 p.m. FS1

Our last write-up is the only home underdog of the entire group. Illinois opened as a 6-point dog to the visiting Kansas Jayhawks. Despite an overwhelming 88% of the wagers and 84% of the handle coming in on the visiting side, the spread has dropped to Kansas being favored by 5.5, with a few straight 5-points across the industry. Both teams destroyed FCS opponents last week. Kansas's dynamic Jalon Daniels had a medicore game last week, going 9-15 for 148 yards with a touchdown and interception. Kansas focused on running the ball, piling up 331 yards and four TDs on the ground. The Illini's offense was the epitome of balance, as they rushed for 244 yards and threw for 242. Even though both squads gave up less than 400 yards and just three points combined last week, this game has the makings of a high-paced shootout. Kansas has playoff aspirations, and Illinois returns six starters on offense from Illinois's most productive scoring unit in five years. The Illini are no strangers to hosting as an underdog. Dating back to 2019, Illinois has been a home dog of five or more points ten times. They don't often win those affairs, going just 2-8 SU, but they have covered six out of ten times. PICK: Illinois +5.5

The four other games that met the criteria but were not selected are:

Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State (-7.5/63) ABC/ESPN+

Eastern Michigan vs. Washington (-24.5/47) 3:30 p.m. BTN

Buffalo vs. Missouri (-34.5/52) 7:00 p.m. ESPN+/SECN+

Western Michigan vs. Ohio State (-38/54) 7:30 p.m. BTN

All four games feature a home favorite with the betting public and money behind it, but the spreads are moving the other way. I think that Oklahoma State will beat and cover the spread. The other three games weren't strong enough to make the board this week, but they deserve attention.

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Weekly Public Action Football Betting Report with Predictions

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