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Weekly Public Action Football Betting Report with Predictions 9/27/2024

by Joey House - 9/27/2024

Football betting public action report Trevor Lawrence Jacksonville

Welcome to the fifth installment of the Public Action Report, where we analyze both college and NFL lines for reverse line movement. If you're new to the series, this link will take you to the introductory article that explains what constitutes a reverse line move.

We followed up our perfect 3-0 NFL week with an 0-2 effort. Chicago outgained Indy but turned over the ball more, leading to their demise. Arizona's defense played better than expected, but their offense was punchless, scoring only 13 points. Nevertheless, both games were very close to cashing tickets for us. We went 1-1 in college, as Clemson blew the breaks off of NC State, but Houston was MIA in Cincinnati, getting shut out.

All listed times are Eastern Standard Timezone.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

NFL

Jacksonville vs. Houston (-6.5/45.5) Sun., Sep 29th, 1:00 pm

Despite the public's faith in the winless Jaguars, the sportsbooks have different expectations. Initially, the Jaguars opened as 5.5-point underdogs, and even though they received 55% of the wagers and 69% of the money, the spread increased to 6.5 points. Both teams are coming off of blow-out losses, but it was Houston's first loss compared to Jacksonville's third. There are concerns about the Jaguars' head coach, Doug Pederson, and his future if the team doesn't turn their performance around soon. Jacksonville ranks 30th in offensive scoring (13.3 ppg) and 28th in defensive scoring (28.3 ppg). Their defense has not yet generated any turnovers. Both Jacksonville and Houston have allowed a high number of sacks this season, with 12 each. However, the Texans' defense has achieved 13 sacks, while the Jaguars have only managed five. Given these statistics, it's not surprising that Jacksonville currently holds a 1-8 straight-up record over its last nine games. Furthermore, the Texans have won 10 out of the last 12 meetings against the Jaguars. PICK: Houston -6.5

Cincinnati vs. Carolina (+4.5/47) Sun., Sep 29th, 1:00 pm

Initially, Cincinnati was a 7-point favorite over Carolina, but the spread has since dropped to Carolina +4.5. This shift is surprising, given that the Bengals have received 70% of the wagers and 79% of the money. The main reason for this change is attributed to the starting of Andy Dalton. The former Bengals QB started for the Panthers last week and quickly became Carolina's leading passer of the season, throwing for 319 yards and 3 TDs in the Panthers' 36-22 win over Las Vegas. Although Carolina will be without veteran wide receiver Adam Thielen, Dalton's experience should enable him to distribute the ball effectively. Carolina's rush offense is ranked 26th in the league with 93 yards per game, but this is mainly due to facing substantial deficits in their first two losses. Against the Raiders, they managed to accumulate 131 yards on the ground when playing with a lead. This could pose a challenge for the Bengals, who are ranked 26th in the league in rush defense, allowing 142 yards per game. Cincinnati has struggled recently, with a 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS record in their last six games. PICK: Carolina +4.5

Washington vs. Arizona (-3.5/50) Sun., Sep 29th, 1:00 pm.

What was initially expected to be a dull game has turned into one of the most anticipated matchups of the weekend. The clash between the Commanders and Cardinals has the highest total on the board. Arizona was initially favored by 4.5 points at home, and despite receiving 98% of the handle and 86% of the wagers, the spread has dropped to 3.5 points. Washington's rookie QB, Jayden Daniels, has an impressive 80.3% completion rate in his first three NFL starts, with two TDs and no INTs. Washington's offense has been flawless in their last two games, not punting or turning the ball over. Arizona boasts their own standout rookie, WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., who has accumulated ten receptions for 198 yards and 3 TDs and is expected to have a strong performance against a questionable Washington secondary. The Commanders have historically performed well against the Cardinals, with an 11-3 SU record in their last 14 games. In the last ten meetings where Arizona has been favored, the Cardinals are 6-4 SU and 4-6 ATS. Given the close nature of the matchup, a field goal could be decisive. PICK: Washington +3.5

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