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Weekly Public Action Football Betting Report with Predictions 9/19/2024

by Joey House - 9/19/2024

Football betting public action report Jared Goff Detroit Lions

Welcome to the third installment of the Public Action Report, where we analyze both college and NFL lines for reverse line movement. If you're new to the series, this link will take you to the introductory article that explains what constitutes a reverse line move.

Last week was the first week we analyzed the NFL, and what a week it was, going a perfect 3-0 and earning the PAR's first clean sweep. I don't break down the first week of the NFL season, because those lines had been posted for months and trampled on by the heathens. Our featured selection of Green Bay +3 over Indianapolis hit, as the Packers won 16-10 outright. The two other plays were underdog winners: Cleveland and the New York Jets. The college plays were not as great, as we went 1-2 in our highlighted plays and 4-4 overall.

One of the hottest talking points of the young NFL season is the fantastic record of underdogs. The Ravens lost at home against the Raiders as 8.5-point favorites. Tampa Bay went to Detroit and left with a 20-16 win as a 7.5-point dog. Dallas and Philadelphia both lost as home favorites of 6.5 and 5.5 points, respectively. So far in the NFL, underdogs of six points or more are perfect 8-0 ATS. Yet, while it's still very early in the season, some other metrics are almost on par with historical averages. From 2021 through now, home teams are 485-398-3, for a .549 winning percentage. In the first two weeks this season, the home team is 17-15, .531 winning percentage. The situation that has the most significant difference so far is non-division road dogs. This season, they are 12-6-1 ATS for a .658 clip. Dating back to 2021, those teams are 180-170-12, a much lower .514 percentage. It's obviously early, and the big dogs have been winning more, but the favorites aren't entirely done yet.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

All times are set for the Eastern Standard Timezone.

NFL

Chicago vs. Indianapolis (-1.5/43.5) Sun., Sep 22., 1 pm

In a matchup featuring two of the league's worst quarterbacks, Indy opened as a 2.5-point favorite. Yet, despite receiving 61% of the bets and 59% of the money, the line has dropped one point. The Colts lead the NFL with 6.1 yards per carry. Unfortunately, they're 29th in the league in rushing attempts a game, with 20 carries a game. Chicago's rush defense is above average in every category. However, the same can't be said for the Colts running defense, which is dead-last in rushing yards, attempts a game, 31st in total yards given up, and 28th in yards per carry. I love it when the underdog has the better defense in the matchup, which is the case here. PICK: Chicago +1.5

Detroit vs. Arizona (+3/51.5) Sun., Sep 22., 1 pm

It always amazes me how an identical record can look so different on teams. Detroit has not started well so far, scraping by to defeat a banged-up LA Rams squad and then losing as more than a touchdown home favorite to Tampa Bay. Arizona, meanwhile, lost a heartbreaker in Week 1 to Buffalo before destroying the same Rams team the Lions struggled with. Detroit is second in yards gained a game with 413 ypg but has been atrocious in the red zone, converting just three trips out of 11 into touchdowns (27.3%). Arizona is second in the league in scoring with 34.5 ppg. Both teams are below average in pass defense, which jeopardizes the under of 51.5 points. The Cardinals have owned this series in Arizona, as they are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 visits by Detroit. Cardinals' QB Kyler Murray finally has himself a DUDE to throw to, and they'll give defenses fits this season. The Rams found out last week, and now it's Detroit's turn to walk back to the 8-mile. PICK: Arizona +3

NCAA

Houston vs. Cincinnati (-3.5/46.5) Sat., Sep 21st Noon FS1

Cincinnati was 17 seconds away from being undefeated until Pitt kicked a 35-yard field goal to cap a 21-point comeback. The line opened with the Bearcats as 5.5-point favorites. And even though they received 58% of the wagers and 77% of the handle, the spread dropped to Cincy -3.5. Just when Houston thought they could breathe a sigh of relief with Texas and Oklahoma's departure to the SEC, they popped back up on their 2024 schedule. The Cougars played a defensive masterpiece, lowering the Sooners' scoring average from 42.5 to 33.7 ppg. Their defense allows a paltry 238.7 ypg (11th in the country) and 16.7 ppg (47th). Unfortunately, Houston's offense isn't as dangerous, as they only average 314.7 ypg and 17.3 ppg (118th of 134). Cincinnati has a similar problem, but it is reversed. Their offense is 11th in the nation at 502.7 ppg, spearheaded by a ground game that gains 6.2 yards/carry and 213.7 ypg. The gaping hole in their armor is a pass defense that is 124th in yards/game (300.7 ypg), 114th with 13.7 yards/completion, and allowing the opposing QB a passer rating of 144.9, 103rd in the FBS. That includes surrendering 438 yards and 20 points to Towson, out of the FCS. Better defenses getting points is a formula for winning. PICK: Houston +3.5

N.C. State vs. No. 21 Clemson (-20.5/46.5) Sat. Sep 21 Noon ABC

One of the most significant line moves of the week, Clemson opened as a favorite of 12.5 points last Wednesday. After N.C. State's 6th-year transfer, starting QB Grayson McCall, was injured in their 30-20 victory over Louisiana Tech, and the line moved to 15.5 points. Despite the Wolfpack receiving 55% of the bets and money, when McCall's status was downgraded to doubtful, the line jumped another 4.5 points to the current Clemson, laying 20.5 points. N.C. State started the year ranked No. 24 and had high expectations that the 3-time Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year, McCall, would significantly upgrade their offense. Yet the Wolfpack averaged the same 26 ppg that they did last year. Now, they must turn to true freshman CJ Bailey to make his first start in Clemson's Death Valley. Clemson laid an absolute egg in their season opener against then-ranked No. 1 Georgia, losing 34-3. They returned the next week and took their vengeance against an out-classed Appalachian State team, destroying them 66-20. After losing eight straight seasons from 2012 to 2019, N.C. State has won two out of the last three meetings. Those wins, however, were both in Raleigh, North Carolina. Clemson is 6-0 SU and 3-3 ATS in head coach Dabo Swinney's tenure. It's a tall order to replace over 10,480 yards and 91 TDs with a true freshman in one of college football's most inhospitable environments. I wouldn't be shocked to see this line move even more, especially if the public jumps aboard. PICK: Clemson -20.5

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