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Weekly Public Action Football Betting Report with Predictions 9/11/2024

by Joey House - 9/11/2024

Football betting public action report Taisun Phommachanh UMass

We're back for Week 3 of the Public Action Report, where we track reverse line moves in college and, starting this week, pro football odds. For those unfamiliar, a reverse line move is one in which the spread moves in the opposite direction of the betting market, often indicating "smart money" coming in on the opposite side. This insight can be valuable in your never-ending battle against the sportsbook.

Week 2 started rough for us, as the first two plays we released missed. However, we rebounded spectacularly, thanks to the state of Illinois. The Northern Illinois Huskies and Illinois Fighting Illini both won outright as dogs, with NIU getting four touchdowns against Notre Dame in what is undoubtedly the biggest win in program history. Overall, the noted games were 4-4.

One of the reasons this system is so beneficial is that the bulk of the plays are on underdogs. One of the many theories of being a successful sports bettor is having the ability to "swim against the tide" and go against popular public opinion. The PAR does precisely that, pointing out the games where public and sportsbooks differ.

All game times are for the Eastern Standard Time zone.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

NCAA GAMES

Arizona State vs. Texas State (+1.5/59.5) Thur, Sep. 12, 7:30 pm ESPN

We start our analysis early this week with an interesting matchup when Arizona State (2-0) travels to the Lone Star State to take on Texas State (2-0). The line opened with Arizona State as a 2.5- to 3-point favorite across the board. And despite receiving 71% of the handle and 84% of the wagers, the line has shrunk down to the Sun Devils laying 1.5 points. The Bobcats of Texas State are coached by G.J. Kinne, a standout QB at Tulsa from 2009-2011. Kinne's Bobcat offense reflects that, as they were 11th in scoring offense last season with 36.7 ppg and 83 points through their first two contests this year (41.5 ppg). Jordan McCloud, the Sun Belt Conference Offensive Player of the Year last season at James Madison, has been effective for the Bobcats and is averaging 273.5 yards per game passing in wins against FCS Lamar and Texas-San Antonio. Arizona State has joined an elite group by exclusively scheduling FBS matchups this season without any FCS opponents, representing only 11% of FBS teams. In his second year at the helm, Sun Devils' head coach Kenny Dillingham has been turning the program around after the shambles left by former head coach Herm Edwards. This is a massive game for the Bobcats, who could use this win to stake their case for being the Group of Five representative in the College Football Playoff. Arizona State is playing its first road game, a situation they struggle in out of conference. The Sun Devils are 3-6 SU and 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine nonconference road games. PICK: Texas State +1.5

Massachusetts vs. Buffalo (-4.5/44.5) Sat., Sep. 13, 1:00 pm CBSSN

In preparation for rejoining the Mid-American Conference, UMass has a MAC-heavy schedule. Their trip to Buffalo is their third MAC game in a row, with five total. Even though they appear to be the dregs of the FBS, with a 0-2 record and an offense ranked in the 16th percentile and defense in the 14th percentile for PPG, the sportsbooks see something there. The line, which opened at Buffalo -6.5 and the Bulls getting 77% of the wagers and 53% of the money, has dropped to -4.5. The Bulls' offense is worse than the Minutemen's, averaging 15.0 ppg, which is 124th in the country. A weak offense became weaker after Buffalo lost the services of their leading wide receiver Nik McMillan (5 receptions, 76 yards, and 1 TD) to a knee injury. UMass QB Taisun Phommachanh is a seasoned 6-year veteran who has developed into a true dual-threat QB. The Minutemen are used to the underdog role and thrive at it, going 8-4 ATS over the last 12 games they have been dogs. PICK: UMass +4.5

Arkansas State vs. Michigan (-23.5/48) Sat., Sep. 13, Noon BTN

Michigan lost at home against Texas last week, their first defeat in 16 games, and now hosts a seemingly weaker Arkansas State squad. At least, that's how the public, but not the books, see it. Michigan opened as a 25.5-point favorite and has garnered 73% of the wagers and 59% of the money. The spread, however, has dropped two points to 23.5. Arkansas State's offense averages 426 ypg and 31 ppg, and it is more than capable of putting 21 points up against the Wolverines. Michigan's offense has been putrid through the first two games, averaging a mere 276.5 ypg. The Wolverines are just not the same team without former coach Jim Harbaugh calling the Xs and Os. We saw that last year, during the six games he was suspended for, the offense averaged 30.2 ppg for the suspension games and 39.7 ppg for the other nine. That was with last year's high-powered offense, not the remaining remnants this year. PICK: Arkansas State +23.5

NFL GAMES

Indianapolis vs. Green Bay (+3/41) Sun., Sep. 15, 1:00 pm FOX

This game has had a great deal of movement, starting with Green Bay as a 4-point favorite when the lines were initially released over the summer. However, that drastically changed after Green Bay lost QB Jordan Love for the foreseeable future in their 34-29 opening Friday night loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Sao Paulo, Brazil. When the lines were released this week, they had flipped to the Colts laying 3.5 points. The public has solidly backed Indianapolis, with 79% of the wagers and 82% of the handle, yet the spread has dropped to the Colts -3. Colts QB Anthony Richardson is in his 2nd year with the team but only started four games in his rookie season before he injured his shoulder. Accuracy was a problem for him in college at Florida, where he had a 54.7% completion percentage. Last week showed it's still an issue, as Richardson was 9-19 (47.4%) for 212 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. Green Bay's defense is better than the Texans. The loss of Love will sting for the Packers, but Joe Mixon just gashed the Colts for 159 yards and 1 TD on 30 carries. The Packers RB Josh Jacobs can carry this team for at least one game. The public typically overreacts to major stars' injuries; this is a perfect example of that and how Vegas reacts. PICK: Green Bay +3

There were five college games and two NFL contests with reverse line movement.

NCAA

Washington State vs. Washington (-5/56)

West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh (+3/60.5)

Notre Dame vs. Purdue (+10/45)

San Diego State vs. California (-19/48)

Virginia Tech vs. Old Dominion (+14/49.5)

NFL

Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-3/41.5)

New York Jets vs. Tennessee Titans (-3.5/40.5)

The Virginia Tech-ODU game is the only one in which the line increased despite the action being on the underdog. In every other college game and both pro games, the spread shrunk despite action on the favorite.

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