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Weekly Public Action Football Betting Report with Predictions 10/4/2024

by Joey House - 10/4/2024

Football betting public action report Tyler Huntley Miami Dolphins

Welcome to Week 6 of the Public Action Report, where we analyze college and NFL lines for reverse line movement. If you're new to the series, this link will take you to the introductory article that explains what constitutes a reverse line move.

We went 1-2 last week, with Washington winning outright against Arizona 42-14 as a 3.5-point road dog and a non-covering win with Houston downing Jacksonville 24-20. Carolina battled valiantly but fell to Cincinnati, falling 34-24. The line was 6.5 points when I wrote the column but closed at 4.5, with reverse movement the entire way.

One of the more difficult traits of playing reverse lines is the need to go against the crowd. More often than not, the logic behind the public favorites is decent. Since these plays often defy conventional wisdom, it may be challenging to get behind them.

All listed times are for the Eastern Standard Timezone.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

NFL

Miami vs New England (+1/36.5) Sun., Oct. 6, 1:00 pm

Everything in this game is screaming the Patriots. Miami has no NFL quarterback since Tua received another concussion, they're playing on a short week, and they are on the road against a team they (like most of the league) struggled against for the better part of two decades. As expected, when the line opened as New England -2, 65% of the wagers and 64% of the handle came in on the Patriots' side. Despite the public support, the line has narrowed to New England -1. At first glance, this seems ridiculous. However, after researching, Miami has something going for it. New England's offense is not very potent, ranking dead last in total yards (238.8 ypg) and passing yards (112.2 ypg) a game. The Dolphins' defense is 6th in the league in total yards allowed with 282.0 ypg and a pass defense in the top 10. Offensively, the Fins have had a rough stretch since Tua went down and brought in QB Tyler Huntley from the Ravens practice squad in the middle of September. He had been with the team less than two weeks when he started against the Titans this past Monday night. As he learns the system, he has plenty of firepower around him. Finally, recent ATS trends show that Miami is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings with New England. The Fins are also 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Foxborough. While it isn't a play for the faint of heart, our system says to back Miami plus the points. PICK: Miami -1

Arizona vs San Francisco (-7.5/50) Sun., Oct. 6, 4:05 pm

Sometimes, squares try to be tricky. Arizona has become a darling of the public because of its dynamic young playmakers like quarterback Kyler Murray and rookie wide receiver phenom Marvin Harrison, Jr. So much so that in the Week 5 matchup at their NFC West rival, the San Francisco 49ers, the Cardinals have received 66% of the wagers and 57% of the handle. The sportsbooks, however, are not as easily swayed by current fancy and moved the line from the key point of seven to 7.5, most likely remembering that the Cardinals are 3-7 SU and 4-5-1 ATS over their last ten meetings with the Niners, including losing four straight SU/ATS. Arizona's defense isn't keeping pace with the offense, as they are 29th in scoring (26.5 ppg), 28th in rushing yards allowed (146 ypg), 25th in total yards (354.8 ypg), and they're allowing opposing QBs to complete 78.6% of their passes, the worst in the NFL. Despite the attention Harrison, Jr. is getting for his impressive rookie season, Arizona is more effective in running the ball, averaging 153 yards a game (5th in the league) and 5.3 ypc (4th). Unfortunately, the Niners excel at stopping the rush, giving up 96 yards and 4.1 ypc. Each team has given up ten sacks, which is surprising for mobile Murray from Arizona. Niners running back Jordan Mason has filled in well for the future Hall of Famer Christian McCaffrey, rushing for 111.8 ypg and three touchdowns. In the last six meetings between these two divisional rivals, San Francisco has averaged 30.5 ppg, while Arizona has scored 19.3 ppg. San Francisco has too many weapons that should feast on a subpar Arizona defense. PICK: San Francisco -7.5

NCAA

UCLA vs No. 7 Penn State (-28.5/46.5) Sat., Oct. 5, Noon FOX

The betting public saw what happened last week when Penn State laid 18 points to Illinois, only to get a 21-7 non-covering win, and decided UCLA +27.5 was a solid bet. The action rolled in on the Bruins, with 63% of the wagers and 62% of the handle. Even though the public was backing the giant dog, the line moved to PSU -28.5, through the key number of 28 points, meaning that the Nittany Lions must win by more than four TDs to cash this bet. UCLA is in no way remotely comparable to the Fighting Illini of Illinois. The Bruins have the 5th-worst scoring offense in the country at 14.8 ppg, and their scoring defense is an abysmal 30.8 ppg (104th of 134). Penn State brings in an offense, putting up 36.2 ppg and a stifling defense holding the opposition to 11.5 ppg. Penn State's offense is lethal -- in the Top 20 in nine categories. They're averaging 7.6 yards per play and 5.8 yards per rush. As good as their offense is, their defense is stronger. UCLA's rush attack is feeble, generating 2.5 yards per carry, and PSU's rush defense is better, at 2.3 yards per carry, 4th in the NCAA. This game is as big of a mismatch as you'll find in the Big Ten. To highlight the explosive difference between these two opposing offenses, the Nittany Lions have 78 plays go for ten or more yards this season, compared to the 44 of UCLA. In nine-plus seasons under head coach James Franklin, Penn State is 15-5 SU and 11-8-1 ATS in October at home, which almost always is more brutal conference play. PICK: Penn State -28.5

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