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Weekly Public Action Football Betting Report with Predictions 10/11/2024

by Joey House - 10/11/2024

Football betting public action report Joe Flacco Indianapolis Colts

Welcome to the 7th edition of the 2024 Public Action Report, where we study the NFL and college football lines for reverse line movement. If you're new to the series, this link will take you to the introductory article that explains what constitutes a reverse line move.

Our picks went 1-2 last week, with Miami defeating New England 15-10 as a 1-point favorite. San Francisco continued the upset trend by losing to Arizona 24-23 as a 7.5-point, and Penn State looked flat in the first half of their non-covering 27-11 victory over UCLA as a 28.5-point favorite.

All game times listed are for the Eastern Standard Timezone.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

NFL

Indianapolis vs Tennessee (-2.5/43) Sun., Oct 13th, 1:00 PM

Indianapolis was installed as a 1.5-point favorite, and despite receiving 87% of the wagers and money, the spread has moved significantly toward the Titans. It is now Tennessee -2.5, and some books have it as high as -3. This game hinges upon who will get the start under center for Indy. Colts head coach Shane Steichen has been adamant that the 2nd-year Anthony Richardson will assume the starting role upon his recovery from an oblique injury. The 39-year-old Joe Flacco, the 2023 NFL Comeback Player of the Year, has been performing splendidly in his absence. Richardson struggled with accuracy, only completing 54.7% of his passes in college and worse this season at 50.6., with a 2-1 INT-to-TD ratio (6-3). Flacco, however, has completed 70% of his passes with 5 TDs and 0 INTs. Whoever is under center will face the surprisingly best defense in the NFL regarding yards per game, as the Titans give up an average of 243.8 ypg. They also lead the league in passing yards allowed (124 ypg), pass attempts (25), completions (14.8), and 4th in opposing completion percentage (59.0%). However, they have yet to intercept the opposing QB, so whoever is the Colt's signal caller may breathe a little easier. Offensively speaking, Tennessee is toothless, scoring just 19.8 ppg and gaining 256.3 yards a game. Indianapolis is 2-4 SU in their last six games played and 1-4 SU in their last five road games. The Titans hold a 5-3 SU record against the Colts when they're playing in Nashville, and Tennessee is the home favorite. This probably won't be the most exciting game on Sunday, but if Richardson logs serious minutes as the quarterback, Tennessee will have the advantage. PICK: Tennessee -2.5

LA Chargers vs Denver (+3/36) Sun., Oct 13th, 4:05 PM

Denver opened as a small 1.5-point dog and has seen that spread increase to +3, even though the Broncos have received 65% of the wagers and 67% of the money. LA is coming off of a bye week that was greatly needed, as they have 17 people listed on this week's injury report. The Chargers aren't scoring many points (17 ppg, 28th in the NFL), but they're giving up even less (12.5 ppg, 1st). They have held their opposition to 282.5 ypg of total offense, 47.5 yards below the league average. Los Angeles has also been extremely effective in stopping mobile QBs this season. In the first 4 games, against Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, and Patrick Mahomes, Los Angeles only gave up 29 yards on 15 carries (1.9 ypc) and a 5-yard TD run to Fields. Bo Nix, the Broncos' QB, ran for 25 yards or more in Denver's three victories. Offensively, the Chargers need running back J.K. Dobbins to be successful. Dobbins ran for 130 yards and a touchdown in both Chargers victories this season. Starting rookie tackle Joe Alt was one of the 17 listed players on the injury report and was a full participant in practice, and the other starting tackle, Rashawn Slater, saw limited practice. A tough defense and a strong ground game travel well in football. If LA gets Dobbins going and forces Denver into a few turnovers (they have 7 on the season), the Chargers will walk away victorious. PICK: Los Angeles -3

NCAA

Washington vs Iowa (-3/42.5) Sat., Oct 12th, Noon FOX

Washington travels to Des Moines looking for its first road victory in the Big Ten. They've defeated Northwestern and Michigan at home but lost two Friday nights ago at Rutgers. Iowa was initially a 4-point home favorite. They received 66% of the wagers and 52% of the money, yet the line has shrunk to the Hawkeyes -3 and has even slid past that key number down to -2.5. Unlike the past few editions of the Huskies, Washington is relying on their stout defense to win rather than winning games in a shootout. Offensively, the Huskies are led by the 5th-year senior QB, Will Rogers, who transferred from Mississippi State. Rogers is 6th in the country with a 73.6% completion percentage, 1,625 yards with 12 TDs, and just 1 INT. He leads an offense that generates 462.7 yards and 25.5 ppg. The stop unit is ranked 10th in the nation, allowing 13.2 ppg. That includes holding a Washington State team that averages 41.8 ppg to just 24, 17 points below their season total. The 2024 Iowa team is also different from the past few squads, as they finally have an offense that can score. Through the first five games, Iowa has been putting up 27.0 ppg, the highest scoring average since the 2018 team averaged 31.2 ppg (full disclosure, for the 2020 Covid-19 season, Iowa scored 31.8 ppg, but I don't count that year in any of my analysis). The Hawkeyes offense is led by junior RB Kaleb Johnson, and his 154.2 ypg and 7.9 ypc go along with his 10 TDs. Defensively, Iowa still has a 27th-scoring defense at 18.0 ppg, with their forte stopping the run. This matchup sets up nicely for the Huskies on both sides of the ball. Iowa's pass defense isn't as strong as its rush defense, while Washington's 2nd in the NCAA in pass completion (74.0%), 16th in passing yards (299.3 ypg), and 17th in yards per attempt (9.2 ypa). Iowa's ground game is in the top 40 in rushing yards (233.0 ypg) and yards per carry at 5.7 ypc. The Huskies' ground defense is in the top half of yards allowed per game with 130.5 and yards allowed per rush with 3.9. Washington is 17-3 SU over their last 20 games and a scintillating 8-1 SU over their last 9 games on the road. The Huskies keep the momentum of their big win over Michigan rolling by getting their first Big Ten road victory. PICK: Washington +3

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