PGA Props Picks: Valspar Championship Predictions

Yes, I know the 2024 NCAA Tournament tips off this week with the first and second rounds of action. These are, of course, on the same days as the Valspar Championship.

I won't tell you to spend more time watching golf than March Madness, but you can at least make some money. With how quickly your bracket could break, you may need the extra cash come the Sweet 16 and Final Four.

We are aiming directly down the fairway this week, with no hooks and no fades. This past week's PGA Tour event, THE PLAYERS Championship, was a massive success for us, and we almost hit the jackpot!

We had Shane Lowry to finish inside the top 20, and the Irishman snuck into a tie for 19th with a 6-under Sunday. That was good for (+170)!

We had our inaugural "To make the cut" parlay with four different star golfers. There was one straggler, but Viktor Hovland still made it to the weekend. That bet paid at (-130).

Another winning bet was Rory McIlroy outplaying Russell Henley in the first round, and a 6-under par for McIlroy did the trick for another (-130).

Finally, we took a flyer out on the winner, Scottie Scheffler, to play a bogey-free round 1. He had one bogey. It would have paid out at 10-1!

If you're a believer in regression, maybe you fade me this week, but we have some spots at the Valspar I really like, including another "To make the cut" parlay.

Get sports picks for every league and nearly every matchup on Doc’s free picks page.

Top 30 Finish

Cameron Young: -120

The 26-year-old Cameron Young may be one of the best golfers on the PGA, but he is still without his first Tour win. He did, however, manage to win the Rookie of the Year in 2021-2022.

Young is a laser at Major tournaments with finishes of 2nd, 3rd, 7th, and 8th across the big 4 already.

The New Yorker is in decent form as well, with finishes of 8th, 16th, and 4th in his previous five starts.

Normally, I prefer golfers with a solid course history, and Young has never played here competitively. This guy isn't your average PGA pro, though. His first time at the PGA Championship-3rd. His first start at the Open Championship-2nd.

I rest my case. These odds look like a top-20 betting line to me. I'll take the extra 10 places.

Matchups

Kevin Yu vs Ryo Hisatsune

Ryo Hisatsune has finished 48th or worse in four of his previous five starts on the PGA Tour, including three missed cuts.

On the other side of the matchup is Kevin Yu. The 25-year-old native of Taiwan is not in the best form either, but he does have 3 top 10 finishes over his last 7 starts. Both of these two have been a bit inconsistent.

Moneyline

Hisatsune: -129

Yu: +108

Yu is a Bermudagrass specialist, and if there's anything you need to know about these guys, they reserve some of their best golf for this surface.

Neither of these two have had a start here. This is just a play on the better golfer, albeit the slightly more inconsistent one. Putting was his issue last week, and playing on his favorite surface at the Valspar should make a difference for him.

He was first for shots gained off the tee at THE PLAYERS. He missed the cut, though. That should tell you that the greens were more of a problem that can be shored up by Sunday.

Spread

Hisatsune: -1.5 (+102)

Yu: +1.5 (-133)

You can take the (-133) here with the +1.5 stroke spread if you please, but I prefer to gamble a bit here for that plus money.

Pick: Yu Moneyline

Xander Schauffele vs Sam Burns

Xander Schauffele was right in the thick of it down the stretch this past Sunday, but Scheffler was just too good, winning his second tournament in two weeks.

Sam Burns was red hot. He has since cooled slightly, but the two-time winner here at the Valspar Championship has to feel disrespected if he sees this betting line.

Spread

Schauffele: -1.5 (-150)

Burns: +1.5 (+117)

I want that +160 moneyline badly. Schauffelle is the favorite to win but Burns is the 2nd favorite. I think this is more of a toss-up than a 65% to 35% implied probability, as the betting odds suggest.

The spread is at plus money. Let's do it.

Moneyline

Schauffele: -194

Burns: +160

Pick: Burns +1.5 (+117)

To Make the Cut Parlay: +220

Xander Schauffele

Cameron Young

Min Woo Lee

Eric Cole

We made last week work for us. I have a ton of confidence in the top two guys we have already talked about. Australia's Min Woo Lee is turning into a solid pro these days. However, he isn't in the best form, and this is his first time playing the Valspar competitively.

He has made 16/20 cuts over the past two years and is 6/6 in 2024.

That brings us to Eric Cole. He has made the cut in 34 of his previous 47 starts on the Tour, including 7/10 in 2024. I worry a bit about the 35-year-old, but hopefully, the not-so-old man has something to prove here, as he missed the cut in his only appearance at the Valspar last year.

For a (+220) payout and the other three probably strong bets, I’ll take a chance on Cole to put together a solid first couple of rounds.

Pick: Yes

Get expert sports picks on every game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.