PGA Props Picks: Valero Texas Open Predictions
We are coming off a weekend on the third coast in Houston, where fans and bettors alike witnessed the great Scottie Scheffler fall short on a Sunday, and by just one stroke. The world's #1 ranked golfer only shot two under par in the final round.
Stephan Jaeger, of all golfers, was able to hold him off. That was the first PGS Tour win for the 12-year pro out of Germany. Might we see more oddballs thrown our way this week?
We tee off on Thursday just down the road in my old military stomping grounds of San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. I guess if you just avoid the Jurassic jackrabbits and drill instructors screaming in your face, and it's a beautiful town.
The aforementioned Scheffler will not be in the field this week. I feel like that is something we need to mention every time now. We are witnessing something special with this guy.
We do have some superstars in the field, however. Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, and Jordan Spieth lead the way.
This will be a difficult week to handicap, as many pros are using the Texas Open as a warm-up for next week’s event from Augusta, The Granddaddy of Them All, The Masters.
As far as which golfers to target, I like the guys who aren't in the best form. They will be undervalued, and it makes sense that they will be locked in because there is no more tuning up. As for the golfers who are in good form, they are probably overvalued in the betting market and potentially just playing through the holes, with the maintenance of rhythm being their #1 goal.
First, though, we have some interesting prop bets and predictions matchups for this week’s Valero Texas Open. Let’s have a look and make some picks!
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Matchups
Collin Morikawa (+120) vs Hideki Matsuyama (-140)
Spread
Morikawa: +1.5 (-122)
Matsuyama: -1.5 (-105)
We have two studs here who aren't playing the best golf of their respective careers but not their worst, either. It's Hideki Matsuyama, the betting favorite here, who has been the sharper golfer as of late.
Enter Collin Morikawa. The California kid is now 27-years-old. And after a strong start to his professional career, we have seen his play stagnate. After a couple of weeks off, Morikawa needs confidence more than anything heading into The Masters.
While the older Matsuyama will probably be tinkering, the young and hungry lion with something to prove to himself will outplay him over four rounds of golf.
Morikawa: +120
Max Homa (+120) vs Jordan Spieth (-140)
Spread
Homa: +1.5 (-130)
Spieth: -1.5 (-101)
There was a time you could ride a hot streak from Jordan Spieth like the Gulf Stream, but those days appear to be in the rearview. Spieth is still young, but inconsistency is his middle name. These are the athletes you look to fade as favorites.
You can see he is sitting there at nearly a 60% implied probability of outplaying Max Homa this week. I know Spieth is a Texan, but I have this as a coin flip.
Homa is in a similar situation to his fellow Californian, Morikawa. He is very talented and also needs to lock in before The Masters. While Spieth does play this course well, he has missed two cuts in a row.
Let's hope the headcase finds a way to lose, while Home finds his stroke.
Round 1 Top 10
Billy Horschel: +500
One of the more underrated golfers on the PGA Tour, Florida man Billy Horschel is now 37-years-old, and wins at this level are becoming harder and harder to come by. He has 7 total victories in his career and has placed inside the top 10 twice in 2024.
A round 1 top-10 bet requires some variance, and Horschel is our guy for that, especially on this course. In his previous 8 starts here at the Texas Open, he has 4 missed cuts to go along with an 11th, a 4th, and two 3rd-place finishes.
His current form is not bad, either, as he has three top 12 finishes in his last 4 tournaments. Only 10 other golfers are higher betting favorites for a round 1 top-10 finish.
Pick: Horschel (+500)
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