PGA Props Picks: US Open Predictions

It’s time for another major tournament on the PGA Tour. However, before we get to some fun and interesting prop bets for the US Open, let’s recap last week’s betting festivities at The Memorial.

Beginning with the bad news, we fell into a trap picking Patrick Cantlay to outperform Tommy Fleetwood. On paper, it wasn't even close. The only thing Fleetwood had going for him was that he had been more active lately and playing slightly better.

The long-haired Brit ended up finishing 20th after a rough 4th round. However, Cantlay packed it in before the weekend, shooting 7 over par for the first two rounds. The odds were even, the fruit was hanging low, and we paid for nothing.

Our other two wagers, though, went very well, as we had Collin Morikawa at (+140) to finish inside the Top 10. The California kid wrapped up The Memorial as the runner-up.

That brings us to the winner, the world #1, Scottie Scheffer himself, who held off the field on a sloppy Sunday to win yet another tournament in 2024. We had him and Xander Schauffele in a parlay to each grab a Top-10 finish. They both did for a (+225) payout!

Let's hope things go as well this week at the US Open. Hosting the event will be one of golf's Meccas, a small town nestled between charming Charlotte and the not-so-friendly Fayettenam AKA Fayetteville, North Carolina.

The home of the 82nd Airborne among many other Army Special Forces is not a place you want to have one too many beers.

Pinehurst Resort is picturesque, and the course Pinehurst Number 2, in particular, is as classy as they come. It has no weaknesses and only two par 5s, each of which is nearly 600 yards long.

Historically, heavy hitters off the tee, who can also approach the green with cautionary aggression have excelled at the US Open. The field is as thick as you might expect, though, with LIV golfers coming over to shake things up.

Speaking of LIV guys, a couple of former winners, Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka will be looking to add to their trophy collection.

Scheffler is only 4-1, though! What a talent. The sportsbooks are tired of getting beat by this guy.

Let’s go ahead and tee off with some fun and interesting prop bets for the 2024 US Open.

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Matchup

Collin Morikawa (+120) vs Xander Schauffele (-144)

As we touched on in the opener, both of these SoCal superstars came through for us last week. There is really no reason to doubt either one. However, Morikawa's game is fitted more for this course than that of the X-Man.

They are both playing exceptional golf as of late, as well as Top 5 or 10 performances at the US Open in recent years. I have this one lined with Morikawa as the slight favorite on the moneyline at (-120).

Spread

Morikawa: +1.5 (-120)

Schauffele: -1.5 (-110)

Do we chase the plus money on Morikawa or take the (+1.5) strokes? We all know the answer in our gut.

Pick: Morikawa (+1.5)

Parlay

Top 30 Finish Parlay

Rory McIlroy/Xander Schauffele/Scottie Scheffler: +100

Who wants free money at even betting odds?

I saw on several other similar parlays where the sportsbooks were throwing in guys like Max Homa, who are historically horrible here. You have to be careful when they make the parlay for you.

I like to keep them to two legs. However, all three of these golfers are in fantastic form and have performed at a high level at US Opens in the past.

The numbers don't lie. Over a combined 15 US Open starts for the three superstars in the past seven years, they have an average finishing position of 6.5, with the worst outing still well inside the Top 30 at 14th.

This is a bet I am more than happy to lose, should that somehow happen.

Pick: McIlroy/Schauffelle/Scheffler

Xander Schauffele Top 10: +110

We have a chance to cover ourselves here, while still possibly hitting all of our prop bets for the 2024 US Open.

I'm not sweating Schauffele in the top 30. In 7 career US Open starts, the San Diego native has an average finishing position of 7th, with his worst outing still a top-15 performance. If he has a bad tournament, we likely win our matchup bet with him against Morikawa.

If he does what he always has at this tournament, the (+110) will pay better than the (-120) we are taking for Morikawa at (+1.5).

Pick: Schauffele Top 10

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