PGA Props Picks: Tournament of Champions Predictions
Happy New Year!
I wish everyone health and happiness in 2024.
I know one thing keeps me healthy and happy, and it's winning bets. We have the final week of the NFL regular season approaching. I know your focus is probably on that. However, I have some strong PGA prop bets for you today.
The PGA Tour begins every year on the majestic island of Maui with the Sentry Tournament of Champions. The name isn't just for show, either. To qualify, you need to have won a PGA Tour event in the previous year. The field will also include those who played in the Tournament of Champions last year.
As you can imagine, we continue to count our blessings for the new year with a chance to see the PGA Tour’s top superstars like Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, and the upstart from Sweden, Ludvig Upberg, who shot a round of 61 a month ago at the RSM Classic.
The Plantation Course at Kapalua isn’t known for its difficulty, as the wide fairways allow golfers to tee off like their last name was Gilmore. However, the importance of precise putting here can’t be understated.
Picking the winner of a PGA Tour event is not easy at all. The best guys in the business rely on just a handful of wins per year to make a profit. That requires a lot of patience. I respect them for it, but I have always preferred to attack the sportsbooks with top 20 bets, top 10s, top 5s, or potentially other interesting prop bets that may be out there.
Get sports picks for every league and nearly every matchup on Doc’s free picks page.
Max Homa Top 10 Finish: +135
Born in Burbank and educated at Berkeley, Californian Max Homa has made his way to 7th in the world rankings to start 2024. The 33-year-old is playing some of the best golf of his career lately.
I also love what he has done in just three starts here at Kapalua. His first time-25th. The next time-15th, and most recently last year, he finished 3rd!
That is obviously something we love to see. Imagine it’s a graph. That’s exactly what a financial advisor would be looking for in a stock chart.
Collin Morikawa Top 10 Finish: +125
I didn’t even need to check the course history for Collin Morikawa at Kapalua. This kid is as skilled and sharp-minded as they come. And while the aforementioned Homa may be peaking, Morikawa continues to improve, rapidly.
Another Berkely grad and LA native, the 26-year-old has been as successful as almost anyone on the tour. I would say only Scheffler has been more impressive from this generation of golfers.
If you thought Homa's course history was a good look, then get ready for this. Morikawa, in his 4 starts here in Maui, has finishes of 7th, 7th, 5th, and last year he was the runner-up. The California kid had a 6-shot lead heading into Sunday but let it slip.
He has shown us plenty of resolve in his short career. So, I see an even more determined Morikawa this week. He has 4 top 10 finishes here in 4 tries, and we are getting him at plus-money to do it again?
Take my money.
Xander Schauffele Top 10 Finish: +140
We are sticking with the California golfers once again, but Xander Schauffele isn't from LA, and he didn't go to Berkeley. The San Diego native kept it real and attended San Diego State.
Golfers from the West Coast or just guys who play some of their best golf on the West Coast Swing do well at The Sentry at Kapalua, as well.
Shauffele is no stranger to this tournament. He won it in 2019 and rattled off two more top 5 finishes in the next two years. Twelve months ago, he had to withdraw but he has been back to 100% for a while now.
Let’s hope for another outstanding performance from the now 30-year-old Schauffele.
Rickie Fowler Top 10 Finish: +300
This one jumped off the page to me. Is it a trap? We have to ask ourselves these questions, but on paper, Rickie Fowler shouldn’t be a 3-1 dog to finish inside the Top 10. Right?
He has 4 starts at Kapalua and finishes of 6th, 5th, 4th, and 5th. At 35, the pastel-wearing pompadour will most likely be dressed for the sunny weather, and hopefully, he comes to play. If so, I don't see why we can't snag a 3-1 payout. We could lose our other three bets and still break even with a top 5 for Fowler.
If you’re not feeling that frisky, take him to finish inside the top 20 for (-110). I like the logic for either bet.
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