PGA Props Picks: TOUR Championship Predictions
We have made it! Thank you for sticking with us this far. The 2024 FedEx Cup PGA Tour Championship is this weekend. Last week was the BMW Championship, where we saw a strange withdrawal from Hideki Matsuyama that made several future winning ticket holders of the Japanese star cry.
This tournament felt good from a betting perspective, as we had faded Ludvig Aberg for weeks in a row only to play him hard to win a group including Scheffler and Schauffele at the BMW. It paid (+650)! Our logic was that it was a new course for most, and the vets wouldn't have course experience on their side. One golfer who did, though, was local Coloradan Wyndham Clark. He easily won a matchup bet for us at (-120).
Veteran Keegan Bradley was able to swoop in and take the trophy with some calm play off the tee on Sunday. He secured a starting stroke index of (-6) for this week's Tour Championship. If you aren't familiar with the format for this tournament, I'll give you a quick rundown.
The FedEx Cup points leader, Scottie Scheffler, starts the tournament at 10 under par. Xander Schauffele is 2nd in the points and starts at (-8). From there, we have the winners of the previous two playoff events, and then the strokes given cascade down to the 26th-30th spots, who will start the tournament at even par.
Let’s bypass picking winners today and continue to cash with some prop bets for the FedEx Cup PGA Tour Championship.
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Tournament Matchup
Ludvig Aberg (-150) vs Sam Burns (+120)
I bragged already about how we are playing young Ludvig Aberg. I want to fade him again here, and it appears the online sportsbooks are doing the same. Like the one below, sometimes we get top 10 or 20 finish parlay odds from the sportsbooks. They usually try to give you one golfer who will bust your parlay.
Do you want to guess who they stuck with both Schauffele and Scheffler at the top of the betting board to finish inside the top 10? Yup, the young Aberg. I think he has some issues at East Lake this weekend. Looking at this betting line, we have to note that it is for a tournament finish. That means that the starting stroke index is in play. Aberg will start one stroke ahead of Sam Burns, but I love the latter to continue his outstanding play and outplay Aberg by two or more strokes for the (+120) payout.
Pick: Burns (-120)
Tournament Top 10 Finish Parlay
Hideki Matsuyama/Rory McIlroy: +115
Matsuyama’s early exit now seems like a strategic move. He couldn’t do any better than the top two, so why not take some extra time to prepare for the Tour Championship if your starting strokes of (-7) won’t change?
Rory McIlroy will start at (-4), in what's essentially a 5-way tie for 6th place. With his history here, I like our chances for him to hold his ground and likely climb to the top 5. Matsuyama is playing his best golf of the year and has the cushion we need to play these two at (+115).
Pick: McIlroy/Matsuyama Top 10 (+115)
72-Hole Matchup
Scottie Scheffler (-120) vs Xander Schauffele (+100)
Spread
Schauffele: +1.5 Strokes (-142)
Scheffler: -1.5 Strokes (+110)
We already mentioned these two savages. And since the Tour Championship, in all likelihood, will come down to Schauffele and Scheffler on Sunday. It should be noted that these betting odds are for the 72-hole score. The stroke index isn't included.
You may be surprised to see that the sportsbooks have this one almost even. Schauffele has been outplaying the world #1 for the past six weeks. I think it continues here at East Lake.
Listen to Schaffele’s finishes here: 1st, 7th, 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 6th, 1st. I will pay the extra 22 cents for the stroke and a half, though. You can’t count out Scheffler.
Pick: Schauffele (+1.5) (-142)
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