PGA Props Picks: The Memorial Tournament Predictions
It wasn’t the “R Mc” win we were looking for with Roy McIlroy. Instead, we saw Robert MacIntyre from around the corner in Scotland take home the W in Ontario at the Canadian Open.
McIlroy was there in the end, but the Scot held him off by 3 strokes for his first-ever win on the PGA Tour.
The field wasn't as deep as we have seen lately with The Colonial and the PGA Championship, nor this week's massive field at The Memorial. However, it was still a national open championship and shouldn't be scoffed upon.
McIlroy will be back in the field this week as the 2024 PGA season is on fire. Two majors down and two to go. Until then, we have The Memorial from Dublin, Ohio. This is a signature event for the PGA Tour and will be overflowing with the vast majority of golf’s superstars.
Scottie Scheffler is back this week and will be the favorite. Until further notice, when you see his name in the field, you can safely assume he is the betting favorite. We have seen him as low as (+300) to win, but he will get him this week for a pretty (+410).
He has a couple of 3rd-place finishes here at The Memorial over his last two starts. After a week off and back-to-back non-victories, Scheffler will certainly be hungry. Is that enough for us, though, to bet on him to win?
More on that in a moment. This week, we also get to see the recent PGA Championship winner, Xander Schauffele, 2023 Memorial winner, Norway's Viktor Hovland, and Patrick Cantlay, who will be the only multiple-time winner of this tournament in the field.
Picking a winner in this week’s tournament will not be easy. It never is when you have such a strong field of the world’s best. That’s why I wanted to share with you today some fun and interesting prop bets for The Memorial.
Let’s tee it up!
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Matchup
Patrick Cantlay (-110) vs Tommy Fleetwood (-110)
I give Tommy Fleetwood such a hard time for his inconsistent play. Maybe it’s because he was such a big part of the 2018 European Ryder Cup Team, winning all four of his matches to defeat my beloved Americans. Maybe it’s because of his beautiful flowing locks of hair.
Bias aside, he is playing some of the best golf of his career as of late. Will that be enough, though, to outplay a two-time champion here?
Well, the sportsbooks think he has a great shot. On paper, however, it isn’t even close. The betting lines seem to be overvaluing current form. I get it, but the late great DMX once said about trust “Trust people to be themselves. Trust a rat to be a rat and a snake to be a snake.”
He is a streaky flake at heart. Let's hope he reverts back to his real self this week.
Fleetwood isn't even on that great of a tear, either. He has an average finishing position of 22nd over his last 7 events. Add in that he hasn't made a cut at the Memorial in his career, and this seems to be an auto-bet situation.
Let's check the spread and see if we can buy a stroke on the scorecard.
Spread
Patrick Cantlay: +1.5 (-154) vs Tommy Fleetwood: -1.5 (+120)
I would just bet the moneyline here, but the books are trying to tell us this one will be close. Let's take the one-stroke advantage and pay the juice.
Pick: Cantlay (+1.5)
Collin Morikawa Top 10: +140
Collin Morikawa is back! I knew the California kid wasn't going to be down for long. He is a Jack Nicklaus course-inspired golfer if I've ever seen one, and if you didn't know already, Nicklaus designed and, to this day, oversees every detail at The Memorial.
Morikawa has been up and down here, though. I think that’s why we are getting such a pretty price on him to finish inside the top 10 at (+140). He won The Memorial in his first attempt, which is incredibly impressive.
He felt the pressure the following year with a 48th-place finish. After that, however, he was a runner-up. The last couple of years have been plagued by injuries for him, as he had a missed cut and withdrawal in 2022 and 2023.
His current form is outstanding, though, averaging a top 10 finish over his last 6 starts on the PGA Tour.
Pick: Morikawa Top 10
Top 10 Parlay
Scottie Scheffler/Xander Schauffele: +225
Shifting to a top 10 parlay with two athletes we mentioned in the opener, I dig the plus money payout for Scheffler and Schauffele to shush the haters this week at The Memorial.
I like the more than 2-1 odds this week for the top two golfers on the betting board. The latter was able to outduel the favorited former for his first-ever Major victory just weeks ago at the PGA Championship.
Instead of trying to pick between these two, let’s bet on them both!
Scheffler has an average finishing position of 2.5 over his previous six starts, thanks to an 8th place finish at said PGA Championship. Without that, we are looking at three wins and two runner-up performances from the world #1.
It's Schauffele we have to worry about, as he has flirted with the top ten here for years with finishes of 14th, 13th, 13th, 11th, 18th, and 24th in his previous six starts at The Memorial. Something has got to give, and maybe winning his first Major will propel the San Diego native over the proverbial hump.
Pick: Scheffler/Schauffele Top 10 Parlay
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