PGA Props Picks: Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Hello everyone, and welcome to another week of PGA Tour betting. Last week was our most disappointing of the new year and the new season. That's okay, though, because in the first few we got ahead and are still in the green.

At least we aren't chasing winners because I haven't seen anyone else predict the long shots and unknown names that have been the victors thus far in the 2023 PGA Tour season.

I'm sure many of you are focused on the Super Bowl. We have plenty of content coming your way in that regard, but if you get bored this weekend, turn on the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Even if you aren't a big fan of golf, I'm sure you've heard of this tournament or at least seen the infamous Bill Murray on your TV doing his best to keep up with the pros.

The amateurs will be paired up with the pros this year like normal, but they will take a seat for the weekend. Make sure you tune in on Thursday and Friday, because that's your opportunity to see your favorite celebrity.

This course will have wide fairways, it's very short overall, there are many bunkers, and the greens are quite small. What we are looking for and skill set this week isn't necessarily someone who can crush it off the tee because you can play your irons with your first shot. Also, if you have excellent wedge play and a putting game to go with your iron game, you will be someone we like.

Let's jump into some fun and interesting prop bets and predictions for the PGA Tour's Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Get sports picks for every league and nearly every matchup on Doc’s free picks page.

Matchups

Scottie Scheffler (-120) vs Rory McIlroy (+100)

Okay, I know I said we were going to stay away from the big hitters, but when it comes to golfers like Scottie Sheffler and Roy McIlroy, a matchup bet between potentially the number one and number two golfers on the planet is something that I don't want to shy away from.

For PGA Tour viewers, this is our first chance to see Mr McIlroy compete in 2023. Both he and Scheffler finished 2022 off quite strong, and McElroy has been playing over in Dubai for the past couple of events, where he finished second and his most recent event, first.

After a 5th place finish at the Tournament of Champions, Sheffler finished 17th at the American Express. With a couple of weeks off, the world number one will try and claim his first Pebble Beach title.

To me, this matchup is quite close, but McElroy has the best recent form, and he has played this tournament before, something we can't say about Scheffler.

Pick: McIlroy

Collin Morikawa (-140) vs Jordan Speith (+120)

Speaking of playing in this tournament before, Jordan Speith absolutely dominates this course. Some golfers may find that teaming up with a celebrity throws off their game, but that clearly isn't the case for Speith.

He has finishes of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 7th, 9th, 20th, and 21st over his last 10 appearances. I know just as well as anyone that he can be a bit of a flake and inconsistent, but not here at Pebble Beach.

Collin Morikawa burned a lot of us last week as he laid a massive egg at Torrey Pines. While I believe he will improve on that performance, I can't ignore the +120, and this matchup bet on Jordan Speith.

Pick: Speith

Brendon Todd Round 1 Score

Over 71.5: -140

Under 71.5: +110

If there was ever a golfer who was coming into this tournament under the radar, yet his style is perfect for this course, it is Pittsburgh's Brendon Todd.

Sure, he is 38 years old and does not have the same pop off the tee he once did, but that's just fine. His irons, wedge play, and putting are all well above average, and that's precisely what this course calls for.

Pebble Beach is a par 72, so all we need is a round one minus one for Todd, and we can cash with a nice (+110).

Pick: Under 71.5

Best Brit

Tommy Fleetwood: +120

Matt Fitzpatrick: +160

Justin Rose: +285

For our last bet of the week, we are looking at which British golfer will finish with the lowest score at this week's Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The incredibly inconsistent Tommy Fleetwood, who I can never appear to get right, is the slight favorite over Matt Fitzpatrick, who has a better course history here finishing 6th just two years ago.

Justin Rose was born in South Africa, but I imagine he has spent quite a bit of time in the UK because he's included in these odds. Rose is by far the more accomplished of the three, but he is also the oldest by a decent margin at 43.

The weather is expected to be atrocious, and even though it's Pebble Beach, I don't know how good I feel about an older guy who has nothing to prove showing some extra grit through the rain and wind throughout the weekend.

Rose is also in terrible form finishing around 50th in his previous three tournaments. I can't put my money on Fleetwood again, and I was thrilled to see that Fitzpatrick had 33% better odds. So, that's where my money is going.

Pick: Fitzpatrick

Get expert sports picks on every game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.