PGA Props Picks: Mexico Open Predictions

Buenos dias and Bienvenido to picturesque Puerto Vallarta for the PGA Tour’s Mexico Open. The west coast is the best coast in Old Mexico.

Though, many of the top pros on the PGA Tour didn't get the memo. The betting favorite this week is Tony Finau. I have nothing against the lanky Salt Lake City native, but seeing him at the top of the betting board isn't something we're used to.

We can’t say he didn’t earn it, however, as he shot a 24 under par at least year’s Mexico Open to defeat one of the world’s best in Spaniard, Jon Rahm. That’s after coming in 2nd to him the year prior.

Finau's #1 worry this week won't be Rahm, as you might have already guessed. At (+1600) to win is the young 22-year-old Dane, Nicolai Hojgaard. He has finishes of 2nd, 1st, 7th, and 2nd in his previous 7 tournaments.

It is still a stretch betting either of these golfers to win outright. However, thankfully, we have a variety of betting odds available for you for the PGA Tour's Mexico Open, including some very interesting prop bets.

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Brandon Wu Top 20: +185

Stanford grad Brandon Wu just celebrated his 27th birthday over the weekend with the entire clan. Hopefully, it was more of a fiesta, and he has been in town for a bit. Unfortunately for the youngster, he is not in his best form at the moment.

He has, however, played some of the best golf of his career at the Mexico Open. If it weren’t for the previously mentioned Rahm and Finau, Wu would two-time defending champion. He finished tied with Rahm for 2nd in 2022 and 3rd last year.

He does have one top 20 finish over his previous 4 tournaments. That gives me confidence, but the course history against tougher fields yields me to believe that Wu ain't nothing to mess with.

I thought about taking him to finish higher, but for nearly 2-1 here, it's a steal.

Pick: Wu Top 20 (+185)

Matchup

Alexander Bjork vs Sam Stevens

Stevens: -1.5 (-120)

Bjork: +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Stevens: -157

Bjork: +130

Alexander Bjork is having quite a rough go of it on the PGA Tour lately. And even when he has ventured to other opportunities, he has struggled mightily to even make the cut.

Some would call Bjork a loser, but I think that's a bit harsh. This isn't the 90s anymore. Let's just call him winning challenged. Is he worth a bet here getting a stroke and a half over Texan, Sam Stevens?

The 27-year-old Stevens will be the younger man here, and the Texan has quietly had a statistically successful start to the 2024 season. He ranks 17th in shots gained total on the entire PGA Tour, ahead of the aforementioned Hojgaard and other notable stars like Collin Morikawa and Max Homa.

He also has a favorable course history here, with 27th and 9th place finishes in his only 2 tries, while this will be the first time Bjork has played this course competitively.

Pick: Stevens (-1.5)

First-Round Leader

Tony Finau: +2200

Finau owns this course. I came into this wanting to fade the man. I just can’t do it. They use a rare type of putting surface on the greens here at the Mexico Open. It’s called Paspalum. And on the rare occasion he plays on it, he usually wins.

If you take the entire fields' statistics at this course and rank them, Finau is 1st in multiple major categories, including shots gained total and tee-to-green.

He has gotten off to slow starts here in the past, though. That concerns me, but it's also why we are getting such a good number on him here. Let's hope he is locked in from the first tee, and we can cash big on Thursday!

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