PGA Props Picks: Farmers Insurance Open Predictions
Our hot streak cooled a bit this past week in La Quinta, California, at the American Express as we hit only one of our bets. That's alright, though. The homework is done, and we have some profitable prop bets for you today.
The PGA tour’s West Coast swing follows through to one of America’s gems, La Jolla, California. The seafood burritos in that town are fantastic.
You have probably heard of this week's course or courses, I should say. Like last week's tournament, we will be rotating between two different links, Torrey Pines North and Torrey Pines South.
We will see 54 holes played on the South Course and the other 18 on the North Course.
These two will play a bit more difficult than the three locations we have seen so far in 2024. We have winning scores of (-17) and twice already 29-under par.
The average finishing score over the past decade here at Torrey Pines is around 12-under. One of this week’s favorites, Max Homa, won it last year with a score of -13. It is quite hard to find betting value on a returning champion on the PGA Tour, but that’s okay. Rarely do we see back-to-back winners anywhere.
Today, we have some fun and interesting prop bets for you, including a couple of matchups along with an over/under play. I also threw in a top-30 finish as a bonus bet, because I couldn't believe the number we are getting.
Let’s tee up!
Get sports picks for every league and nearly every matchup on Doc’s free picks page.
Matchups
Tony Finau (-110) vs Jason Day (-110)
Salt Lake City's tall drink of water Tony Finau has never been one of the most consistent golfers on the PGA Tour. I think he has always known when I back him, because those are the times he lays an egg.
With that said, I am a bit shy to fade him as he has started off 2024 with finishes of 38th and 25th. When I saw we were getting identical betting odds against a golfer in Jason Day, who is possibly the best Poa Annua player on the PGA Tour today, I had to give this a deeper dive.
We were on Day to be the top Aussie last week at (+200). Unfortunately, he fell two shots short of making it a profitable week for us. I am not jumping off of the train just yet, though. The man from down under has an incredible course history here at Torrey Pines.
In the past 10 years, he has finishes of 9th, 7th, 5th, 3rd, 2nd, and has won it twice! Finau has also played great here, but I like the form of Day, as well as his putting precision on Pop Annua greens.
Pick: Jason Day (-110)
Xander Schauffele (-120) Collin Morikawa (+100)
The San Diego native Xander Schauffele is off to an outstanding start to 2024, finishing 10th at the Sentry and 3rd this past weekend at the American Express. The problem is that he doesn’t always play his best golf in his hometown.
One would assume he would, but maybe the pressure gets to him a little bit. On the other side of this matchup is the young Collin Morikawa, who began his career with 22 consecutive made cuts. To put that into perspective, he fell 3 short of the PGA record held by the one and only Tiger Woods.
The LA native has his sights set on this tournament as he finished 5th at the Sentry and took the following two weeks off of competition, and there is no report of an injury. He fell just short in 2023 here at Torrey Pines with a 3rd place finish.
Morikawa has been a money maker for me since he joined the Tour, and I don't think it will stop this week at Torrey Pines.
Pick: Collin Morikawa (+100)
Round 1 Score
Harris English
Over 69.5 (+120)
Under 69.5 (-170)
The 34-year-old Georgia boy, Harris English, is healthy and off to a hot start this year, posting scores of 10th and 14th in Hawaii. He took last week off in preparation for this week's Farmers Insurance Open.
The field will be thicker, but English has the course history to potentially finish near the top of the leaderboard. Shooting a 69 in the first round doesn't seem too far-fetched. And as you can see from the inflated betting line, many others agree.
I am going the other way, though. He has failed to make the cut in his last four starts here at Torrey. It is a difficult place to play, ranking the 4th hardest course out of 49 on the PGA Tour in 2023 with an average score of 74. Averaging 3 strokes under for the four rounds puts you at 12 under, and as we mentioned earlier, that is the average winning score.
Pick: Harris English Over 69.5 1st Round Score (+120)
Top 30 Finish
Sungjae Im (-150)
We mentioned that Finau was inconsistent. Well, South Korea’s Sungjae Im is the epitome of consistency. Along with Morikawa, Im has been a cash cow for me ever since his Rookie of the Year season in 2019.
The guy is on a 10-tournament streak of finishing 24th or better. He has played this tournament 5 times, and his score has improved each year, including 6th and 4th place finishes in 2022 and 2023.
Pick: Sungjae Im Top 30 (-150)
Get expert sports picks on every game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.