PGA Props Picks: Charles Schwab Challenge Predictions
Well, we certainly picked the wrong week to bet against Xander Schauffele. The San Diego native held off a late push from fellow American Bryson Dechambeau to win the Tour’s second major event of 2024, the PGA Championship.
Schauffele finished the tournament 21 strokes under par to win the first of likely several majors of his career.
This week, we head south from Valhalla, Georgia, to the booming Fort Worth, Texas, for the Charles Schwab Classic. This will be a test of endurance for the thick-blooded as this will be the hottest tournament of the year with highs in the low 90s, along with sticky humidity upwards of 85% with zero rain in the forecast.
The view from your living room with AC pumping should be much more comfortable as a few of the PGA Tour's best including Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, as well as the resurgent Collin Morikawa will be in the field this week. We are playing at the famed Colonial Country Club. It's a classical-style course, also known as "Hogan's Alley", named after the legendary Ben Hogan.
For reference, another classical course is Augusta National where The Masters is played. Colonial plays even tighter down the fairways. Some stats we should heed are driving accuracy along with shots gained tee-to-green.
I am already leaning toward the aforementioned Scheffler to win. He’s the best, his style of play fits the course, and this is his hometown. However, the betting odds on the favorite don’t exactly have a ton of value at only 3-1. The next golfer down the board is Morikawa at 14-1.
Picking winners on the PGA Tour is never easy, and even if we make a profit over time, who likes to lose north of 90% of the time? That's where the fun and interesting prop bets come into play for this week's Charles Schwab Classic.
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Matchup
Collin Morikawa (-150) vs Max Homa (+120)
Let's tee it up with a couple of the PGA Tour's top talents. In a matchup of two SoCal boys, you are likely to get your money's worth with this bet. These two Los Angeles natives will see a lot of television time, and your money could last you for the entire weekend.
Morikawa burst onto the scene a few years ago, playing red-hot as a rookie, only to cool off considerably for quite a while. However, he has since found his stroke with consecutive finishes of 3rd, 9th, 23rd, 16th, and 4th this past weekend at the PGA Championship.
Homa is a bit older at 33, but still in his prime, of course, and playing some of the best golf of his career the past couple of years on the Tour. He outplayed Morikawa at the Charles Schwab Classic last year (9th to 29th). However, I am leaning the way of the betting favorite this week.
Morikawa is more skilled, swinging a better club, and the price is right at only (-150).
Pick: Morikawa
Harris English Top 30: -140
Here is another similar price to that of Morikawa. I’ve learned in betting golf props like this not to be scared off by a little bit of juice. (-140) is not that pricey for a golfer like Harris English.
The 34-year-old Georgia boy finished an impressive 18th last week and has four top-30 finishes here at Colonial over his previous 5 appearances, including a 2nd place finish, as well as 12th last year.
Pick: English Top 30
Top 20 Finish Parlay
Scottie Scheffler/Max Homa/Brian Harman: +600
We will wrap things up with a couple of golfers we have already mentioned, along with one of the more consistent players on the PGA Tour in Brian Harman.
Another Georgian, albeit a bit older at 37, is obviously used to the inevitable muggy conditions, Harman minus 1 missed cut, has an average finishing position at the Charles Schwab Classic of 19th over his last 9 starts.
Homa has an average of 19th over his last 3 tournaments at Colonial, and Scheffler’s resume and recent play goes without saying. I love the 6-1 here for this top-20 finish parlay.
Pick: Scheffler/Homa/Harman Top 20: +600
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