PGA Props Picks: BMW Championship Predictions

There are only three weeks of the PGA Tour's FedEx Cup Playoffs. This past tournament, the St Jude Championship, was the first round of the postseason. One of the best iron players in the world, Japan's Hideki Matsuyama, finished 17 under par for the first three rounds, and even with pros like Xander Schauffele shooting a seven-under Sunday, he held on for the two-stroke win with a final round even par.

As for our bets, unfortunately, we only went 1 for 3. If it weren't for our official cash cow for 2024, Tommy Fleetwood, outplaying Ludvig Aberg for a (-120) win, we would have a lot of ground to make up.

We faded Viktor Hovland at the Olympics, and it paid. However, the Norweigan star appears to be back in form after a 2nd place finish at St Jude. That is when he plays his best golf. We can't be that surprised. Hovland won the Tour Championship last year, as well as notched a 5th place finish at this tournament a year ago.

That brings me to my next point. Everybody in the field will play this week's course for the first time in competition. Last year, the tournament was in the UK. This time around, we are visiting the Castle Pines Golf Club in the Rocky Mountains just south of Denver.

With the thin air, balls will be soaring. However, the intentional fades and hooks off the tee will prove more difficult for most.

Today, I wanted to share with you guys some prop bets for the BMW Championship. Let’s tee off with those and cash these bets on Sunday.

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Matchup

Wyndham Clark vs Cameron Young

Moneyline

Clark: -127

Young: +106

Hometown boy and Denver native Wyndham Clark comes into the BMW Championship red hot after a 7th place finish last week, where he also shot a seven-under on Sunday. The 5th ranked golfer in the official rankings is primed to possibly hoist the trophy by the end of the weekend.

He has family in the Castle Rock area and has played this course numerous times. Taking him over Cameron Young here seems like an autobet, but let’s see how Young has been performing.

He has a few decent finishes as of late, but most of them are in the 60s or missing the cut.

Spread

Clark: -1.5 (+103)

Young: +1.5 (-137)

The (-127) isn’t that pricey for the Coloradan.

Pick: Clark Moneyline

Group Top Finisher

Scottie Scheffler: +130

The best golfer in the world just doesn't have the value next to his name any longer. If you want Scottie Scheffler, take him to win at 4-1.

Xander Schauffele: +275

Some would say that Xander Schauffele is closing the gap between him and Scheffler. I tend to agree, but if there is anywhere Schauffele struggles, it is with driving accuracy, and this course is one of the most narrow on the PGA Tour.

Rory McIlroy: +450

Rory McIlroy has nearly double the payout of the X-Man and more than triple that of SS. A bet on the Northern Irishman at 4.5 is one I would like to make. He is, low-key, having the most consistent year of his career.

Collin Morikawa: +550

Young Collin Morikawa had a nice bounce-back season in 2024. I prefer to take him as a top 10 or 20, though, as his nerves don't always hold together as tightly as his peers down the stretch.

Ludvig Aberg: +650

The Aberg fade is finished for now! We are back on the train, as the young man's troubles this year seem to be because he was playing courses for the first time while his competitors are veterans.

Let’s play him and McIlroy here.

Pick: Aberg and McIlroy

Top 10 Finish Parlay

Scottie Scheffler/Viktor Hovland: +200

We already gushed about Hovland being back in beautiful form just in time for the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The other guy in this parlay seems to always be in fantastic form.

Scheffler is too good. We attacked a parlay bet with him and Jon Rahm to make the top ten at the Olympics, and it hit. We took the most likely top-10 finish parlay. However, it still holds value, with both golfers as both guys are playing tremendously, coming off of 2nd and 4th place finishes in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, respectively.

Pick: Hovland/Scheffler

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