PGA Props Picks: American Express at PGA West Predictions

We were on Keegan Bradley to win the first round, and my first draft at least featured Byeong Hun An to make a dent. Both golfers ended up shooting 17 under par, losing out to the random Grayson Murray in a playoff.

Hats off to Murray, though. He sank a 54-foot putt to seal the deal at the Sony Open. We won our matchup bet at (-110) by 12 strokes, and our investment at (-200) paid off as Hideki Matsuyama easily made the cut, finishing 30th.

Let’s keep the momentum going this week as the PGA Tour’s West Coast Swing continues with the American Express at PGA West.

Set up just outside of Joshua Tree National Park is the PGA West course along with the PGA West Tournament Course and the La Quinta Country Club. This tournament will be played on all three courses.

I will save you the details of all three courses, but just keep in mind that it is a Pro-Am event, which means the course difficulty will be relatively low for PGA Tour standards.

The field is surprisingly thick, with the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Patrick Cantlay leading the way. Let's take a look at some interesting prop bets for the American Express and make some picks!

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Sungjae Im Top 20: +110

This one might not be the most interesting or fun prop of the tournament, but I couldn’t keep it from you guys. Sungjae Im is one of my top 5 all-time moneymakers in golf betting, and he has never finished outside of the top 20 at this tournament in 5 appearances, including his rookie year on the PGA Tour.

His form and rest are also beautiful, as he finished 5th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions two weeks ago and then took a breather, while much of the field was playing the Sony Open.

I capped this at (-180). So, we are getting extraordinary value on Sungjae Im to snag a top 20 finish.

Matchups

Chris Kirk (-115) vs Adam Hadwin (+100)

This one feels like a public play if I’ve ever seen it. However, when your best perimeter shooter has a hot hand, you give him the ball. That’s what we are doing with Knoxville, Tennessee native Chris Kirk here.

The 38-year-old is playing some of the best golf of his entire career right now, and I’m not jumping off the train until he has a bad week or two.

After winning the first event of the year, the Sentry Tournament of Champions, he followed it up with a rather respectable top-20 finish in Honolulu.

Kirk has been a bit inconsistent here, but he has done his best work most recently, including a 3rd place finish last year. Add in that current form we talked about, and I think he can get the best of Canada's Adam Hadwin.

Pick: Chris Kirk (-115)

Taylor Montgomery (-120) vs Akshay Bhatia (+100)

Taylor Montgomery and Akshay Bhatia each finished alongside one another last week in Maui, finishing 13th. Their recent form is quite similar, going back to the late Summer of 2023.

What separates the two is the course history. Bhatia is 0-2 with two missed cuts, while Montgomery finished 5th here last year in his only appearance.

I don't think we are going to get a 12-stroke blowout win like we did last week with Putnam, but Bhatia is very young, and I love that Montgomery finished 5th in his only start at the American Express.

Give me the experience over talent with the course changes and adjustments playing with the amateurs.

Pick: Montgomery

Top Australian Jason Day: +200

Jason Day is getting up there in age, yes, but he is in solid form already with a 10th place finish at the Tournament of Champions. And like the previously mentioned Im, he took last week off.

Day may never be able to match the success he had as a younger man. However, in a Pro-Am with multiple courses, I love the experience he has to trump the youth of some of his peers.

In his previous performance here in La Quinta, California, Day managed a top-20 finish. He may need to do a bit better than 18th overall to be the top Aussie, but there is only one other man from down under who is a bigger favorite, Min Woo Lee, and he has zero professional course experience here in La Quinta.

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