Olympics Medal Counts by Country: Over and Under Best Bets

by Mike Allen - 7/26/2024

It's a crazy time to be alive halfway through 2024. The last two weeks alone here in the USA have provided enough drama for a year. The 2024 Summer Olympics could not be coming at a better time.

Professional sports bring groups of people together, but not an entire country. There is, of course, the nationalistic passion for futbol or soccer. However, the USA has yet to drink that Kool-Aid.

This is our one chance in peacetime to come together as a country. The USA is currently a (-600) betting favorite to win the most medals of any country in the 2024 Olympics.

Those betting odds are too expensive for professional bettors and zero fun for the rest of us. Thankfully, the online sportsbooks provided us with medal count over/under odds for 10 different countries.

Ireland is only (-135) to win 9 total medals! I think the laddies can do it. The USA, conversely, has over/under betting odds set at 121.5.

Let’s touch on each country followed by our best bets for your country’s Olympic medal count.

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Australia

Over 47.5: -135

Under 47.5: +105

I am going over, mate. Well, maybe, but hear me out.

I'm sure you've met an Aussie before. These guys love sports as much as any American or Brit. As their economy and nation grows, I think performances at the Summer Olympic Games will flourish with warm weather year-round.

China

Over 87.5: -115

Under 87.5: -115

We aren't getting any clues from the sportsbooks here on China with it (-115) on both sides. There is no question that 2020 was a difficult year for all of us, but China took it very hard. They were also on enemy ground in Tokyo.

We may see a rebound from them this year.

France

Over 54.5: -130

Under 54.5: +100

The home country has to go over their medal, right? This country is overflowing with elite athletic specimens, and the juice may be worth the squeeze at just (-130) for France to go over the projected 54.5 medal count.

Great Britain

Over 62.5: -125

Under 62.5: -105

From what I have heard, people are quickly abandoning ship on the Great Britain medal count. The number has plummeted. Life is about opportunity, though, and we have a buy low spot on the table if we want it.

Ireland

Over 8.5: -135

Under 8.5: +105

Ireland’s first appearance at the Olympic Games came 100 years ago at the 1924 Paris Olympics. They had 49 athletes compete that year. However, none were able to bring home any medals.

Sure, they have improved, but not much. They have brought home more than 2 medals a total of only 5 times and never more than 6.

Italy

Over 45.5: -160

Under 45.5: -120

The Italians are coming off of their highest medal count ever when they brought in 40 back in 2020.

Japan

Over 44.5: -125

Under 44.5: -105

Japan shattered its medal count record of 41 when they won 58 in total in their capital city of Tokyo four years ago.

Netherlands

Over 34.5: -120

Under 34.5: -110

There is an old saying that size matters, and the Dutch are a good example. These are some of the largest people in the world, and it’s only physics that they are going to excel in sport.

The people, in my experience, are very intelligent as well. They have been improving their total for years now and had a massive jump last year. I project them to keep the momentum going.

Spain

Over 20.5: -110

Under 20.5: -120

I was very surprised when I saw how low this number is. The Spanish are slick! Maybe it’s a stereotype. I’m not sure, but their fighters and boxers as well as their soccer/futbol players are as crafty as any other country.

USA

Over 121.5: +100

Under 121.5: -130

The USA may have some trouble from China in the gold medal race, but it doesn't appear anyone will challenge them for the #1 spot in total golds.

Best Bets

Australia Over 47.5: -135

They are coming off of 6th place in 2020 in Tokyo where they racked up 46 medals in total. Australia had one of the strongest lockdowns in response to the pandemic anywhere in the world. I am sure that hindered their preparation and performance at the 2020 Games.

USA Under 121.5: -130

The (-130) range seems to be the sweet spot. There are so many events and different athletes, many of which will be scored by judges. I understand bettors aren’t emptying their bankrolls on either side.

That’s good for us, though. Take the US to come up short. They will be competing in Paris, and there is some animosity between the two countries we can’t ignore.

The models have the US down around 110 medals.

Italy Under 45.5: -120

This is probably my favorite play here. They are surging. However, with the next Winter Olympics being held in Italy, I can see them slipping on the Summer side in 2024.

It isn’t just that, though. They are only averaging about 26 over their previous 12 Games.

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Olympics Medal Counts by Country: Over and Under Best Bets

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