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NFL Wild Card Weekend Prop Bet Predictions with Expert Analysis

by Matt Zitt - 1/11/2024

NFL Wild Card Weekend prop bet predictions Travis Kelce Kansas City Chiefs

The NFL ended Week 18 with a ton of excitement, as the Titans beat the Jags to knock Jacksonville out of the playoffs and sneak the Steelers into the dance. Sunday Night Football saw the Bills come back and beat the Miami Dolphins to win the AFC East for a fourth straight season. The drama of Week 18 felt like playoff football, and now we turn our attention to Wild Card Weekend. Six games over three days, which means there are plenty of prop bets to be wagered on. Doc’s Sports will break down below some of the best prop bets and values for this upcoming weekend.

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Elijah Moore OVER 36.5 yards (-105)

This is a prop I would lock in early before it rises. The Browns roasted the Texans secondary in the regular season, specifically Amari Cooper. The Texans secondary has no choice to double team Cooper, which should open the field up to other receivers. Two other Browns pass catchers, Cedric Tillman and Marquise Goodwin, are on the injury report. Moore is a talented third-year receiver, and Joe Flacco loves chucking it down field. In Flacco’s first four games, Moore saw the ninth-most air yards at 410. I am pegging Moore for a 5-catch, 60+ yards game this weekend.

Travis Kelce OVER 57.5 yards (-110)

Kelce has not had his typical dominant season and his struggles are well documented, but it is hard to imagine he does not feed in this game, or at the very least see a ton of targets. Miami is giving up 55.0 yards per game to opposing tight ends, and only seven teams in the NFL are giving up more. The Chiefs wide receivers have been disappointing, and Mahomes is low on pass catching options. Kelce is a future Hall of Famer and the most trustworthy player on this Chiefs team. Mahomes will pepper him with targets all game in a do-or-die situation. Even with the cold weather, Mahomes will look to pass the pigskin and Kelce will be the beneficiary. Kelce’s over should cash in easily, and I am looking at alternate lines like Kelce over 80 yards at +205. Kelce’s an easy play this week.

Najee Harris OVER 59.5 yards (-110)

The weather in Buffalo is expected to be freezing and extremely windy. Sounds like a good recipe for the run game. Harris has been on a roll to end the season and has turned into the workhorse that was expected. He has tallied 72 carries over the past three games, with the lowest single game total coming in at 19 carries. The offensive line has progressed, and Warren and Harris compliment each other very well, giving defenses different looks. The Bills defense has also suffered key injuries, and Pittsburgh should come out trying to run the ball down their throats. I would also grab Harris’ rush attempts prop at 15.5 at even money that is being offered at some books.

Dallas Cowboys Team Total OVER 30.5 points (+105)

I love this prop plus money. The Cowboys have been so dominant at home this season. Dallas is a perfect 8-0 under their own roof and averages 37.4 points per game at AT&T Stadium. The offense has put up 33 touchdowns on their own turf and are converting 3rd downs at 53%. In the past month, the Packers defense has allowed 34 points to the Bucs and 30 points to the lowly Panthers. Look for Dak and company to come out firing on all cylinders.

Matthew Stafford OVER 260.5 yards (-115)

This is a no-brainer in a great revenge spot for Stafford and the Rams. The Lions have allowed the most passing yards in the NFL since Week 10, and the Rams’ game plan should be…..pass, pass, pass. Detroit has also allowed four of their past opponent quarterbacks to go over this number. With indoor conditions, look for Stafford to feed Kupp and Nacua.

Mike Evans Anytime TD (+114)

Evans tied Tyreek Hill for most receiving TDs in 2023 by finding the endzone 13 times. Now, Evans has a home matchup against an Eagles secondary that has been easily burnable the past 6 weeks. Since November 26, the Eagles have given up 34 points to the Bills, 42 to the 49’ers, 33 to the Cowboys, 20 to Seattle, 25 and 27 points to the GMen, and 35 points to the Cardinals. With Tampa Bay’s season on the line, I do not see a scenario where Mayfield does not give Evans a bunch of end zone targets with his big body and size. I also would not be surprised if they connect on a deep one.

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