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NFL Week 18 Circa and Westgate Las Vegas Football Contest Report

by Christopher G. Shepard - 1/5/2024

Las Vegas football contest report Bill Belichick New England Patriots

There is one week left in the major Las Vegas NFL contests, and week 18 is considered one of the most difficult of the NFL season to handicap due to the uncertainty of who will sit, who will start, who will try hard, and who will hardly try.

It was a tough week for the leaderboard in week 17 of the Circa Million V where the consensus picks and the contest leader Saint31-1 (59-25-1, 70,2%) 59.5 points were 1-4 ATS. The leader is still 1.5-points in front of RDLown, who also went 1-4 in week 17 and has 58 points at 56-25-4 (69.1%) on the season. Rounding out the top-3 are three entries #LFGMO-2, JJARVIS117-1 and LCPA-1 all with 56.5 points. I went 2-3 last week and moved to 289th place. This brings my season-long record to 49-33-3 (61%) or 50.5 points on the season and nine points behind the leader. The five consensus picks were 1-4 in Week 17: Tampa Bay -2.5 (30.5%), Dallas -5 (29%), LA Rams -5.5 (25.9%), Carolina +6.5 (25%), Baltimore -3 (24%).

Seattle Paddle (55-25-5, 68.8%) has retained their lead with 57.5 points in the Las Vegas Westgate Resorts SuperContest by virtue of a 3-2 week 17. Meanwhile, last week’s co-leaders Mantistoboggan (55-27-3, 67.1%) went 2-3 and 2Wong1Wang (55-29-1, 65%) went 1-4 and fell to second place with 56.5 points and third place with 55.5 points, respectively. Nolandalla1vbs is still in fourth place with 55 points. My picks went 2-3 for a 50-34-1 (59.5%) record and 50.5 points on the season. I’m currently in 66th-place going into the hardest week of the season with the possibility of cashing and finishing in the top 50. The five consensus picks were 2-3 in Week 17:  LA Rams -4.5 (37%), Carolina +6.5 (28%), New Orleans +3 (23.5%), Buffalo -12 (23.5%), Green Bay +2 (23.5%) 


The DraftKings Main Event Pick ‘em concluded in week 17 with Bbissick, who had led this contest since week 11, snatching second place ($22,200) from the jaws of first place after they went 1-4 in week 17. Congratulations to JBM271 57-23, (71.3%) who won $142,200 as they went 4-1 in week 17 to come from behind and win the top prize. CarlosandGuido and PayChex tied Bbissick for second place with a 56-24 record and $22,515. The last two weeks of the contest, I fell out of the money and went 2-3 in the last week to bring my season record to 43-37, (53.8%) The five consensus picks were 2-3 in Week 17: Colts -2.5 (50.73%), Panthers +6.5 (40.59%), Bills -12.5 (30.2%), Texans -3.5 (24.45%), Rams -6.5 (19.1%).

Last week I was 0-2 on my picks in all three contests with an aggregate tally of 20-15 (Circa Million V), 21-14-1 (SuperContest) on the season in this space.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5/-5) vs. CAROLINA PANTHERS (+4.5/+5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS) go on the road for the second consecutive week and play for the NFC South title and a chance to host the NFC Wild Card game if they can beat the Carolina Panthers (2-14 SU, 4-10-2 ATS). This game opened with the Buccaneers as a 5.5-point road chalk but was quickly bet down to -4.5 points by sharp bettors who like the scrappy Panthers, who gave the Buccaneers a hard time at Tampa Bay in December’s 21-18 loss. However, even with the line movement going toward the Panthers, 71% of the bets are on the Buccaneers, which gives me pause.

The Buccaneers were 7-0 ATS on the road going into the Saints’ game last week and blew a great opportunity to wrap up their third consecutive NFC South title with a win, but instead got embarrassed by a motivated Saints team who tied the Buccaneers for the division lead. Saints quarterback Derek Carr threw two touchdowns in the win, but the Saints’ defense won the day by terrorizing Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield, who had looked sharp the previous four games. In fact, Mayfield was 5 of 10 for 43 yards passing in the first two quarters and were down 17-0 at the half. Mayfield didn’t get the Buccaneers into the end zone until the fourth quarter. He also had two interceptions and two touchdowns, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the slow start.

I look at last week like a stock market correction for Mayfield and the Buccaneers. He had been playing lights out during the four-game win streak and was bound to come down to earth. Unfortunately, I had backed the Buccaneers last week and it cost me dearly in the NFL Contest standings.

This week, the Bucs are quite aware of the stakes in the season finale. If they lose, the winner of the Falcons-Saints game in New Orleans will take the division and host the Wild Card game next week.

The question for me when handicapping this game is how hard will the Panthers play for interim head coach Chris Tabor? Tabor, for his part, has said that if his players are healthy they’ll play and hopefully play spoiler for the Buccaneers. Last week, the Panthers looked terrible against the Jacksonville Jaguars. This week, the Panthers will be thin at the receiver position, and that won’t help the Panthers, who average 167.1 yards per game, the second worst in the league. The Buccaneers also sacked Panthers quarterback Bryce Young four times earlier this year. The Panther’s kicker, Eddy Pineiro, is dealing with a hamstring issue, and that could force Tabor to go for it if they are in field goal range. The Panther signed Matthew Wright just in case Pineiro can’t kick.

Just because a team needs to win doesn’t mean they will win, let alone cover, as we saw last week in several games. The NFC has seven remaining playoff spots, and this is Tampa Bay’s second chance in as many weeks to clinch the division. Last week’s loss was a warning to the Buccaneers, which I think they will heed this week and win comfortably. Hopefully, Panther’s owner David Tepper won’t toss a drink on Buccaneers fans this week. 

Take Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 in all contests   

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-1.5) vs NY Jets (+1.5)
There are two questions New Englanders are asking this week; will Patriots’ Hall of Fame head coach Bill Belichick (333 career wins) return for his 25th season, and how much plowable snow will we get on Sunday? In true Belichick fashion, his response to questions about his future have been, “We are focused on the Jets this week.” Typical. Meteorologists, however, are more certain that Massachusetts will get about six inches of snow that will start on Saturday night and continue Sunday through game time.

Last year, I took my sons to the Patriots-Jets in the windy, bitter cold in Foxborough. It was an awful game that was deadlocked at 3-3 from the second quarter on until Jets head coach Robert Saleh inexplicably punted to Marcus Jones, who ran it back for a touchdown as time expired. The Patriots won 10-3 and covered the spread in that game. It was the first punt return for the touchdown in the NFL last season, and it could have easily been avoided. However, the poor coaching decision cost the Jets overtime and a possible win. Last year’s starting quarterbacks, Mac Jones for the Patriots and Zach Wilson for the Jets, will ride the bench this Sunday, but I see a similar type of game this week.

The New England Patriots (4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS) will host the New York Jets (6-10 SU, 5-10-1 ATS), and if you want to go to the game tickets are about $29 on StubHub as of today and will likely fall further as the game gets closer. Seventy percent of the money has come in on the Patriots as a slight home favorite of -1.5 points. Points will be at a premium in this tilt as the Patriots are the lowest scoring team in the NFL at 14.6 points per game, while the Jets average 15.7 points per game. Gusts of 20-30 mile-per-hour are expected at game time, and despite a very low total of 30.5 points this game should certainly cash under tickets.

Jets quarterback Trevor Siemian will start his second game of the season. Siemian (32 of 45 for 261 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT) wasn’t totally awful in the Jets 37-20 loss to the Browns last week. The Jets released RB Dalvin Cook on Wednesday as he struggled all year with 214 yards on 67 carries. This will put the onus on the mercurial Breece Hall, who has led the team in rushing with 816 yards and four touchdowns.  

Last week, the Patriots played well on the road against the Buffalo Bills but lost as 12.5-point underdogs 21-27. Generally, the Patriots have played better under Bailey Zappe at quarterback than Mac Jones. I think, in what could be Belichick’s last home game coaching, you can throw all the statistics and trends in the garbage. Motivation is what will drive the Patriots on Sunday as they plow the Jets. Whether he stays or goes, Belichick wins his 334th-career game.

Take the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -1.5 in all contests  

CIRCA Millions V
Steelers (-4) vs. RAVENS (+4)
Texans (-1.5) vs. COLTS (+1.5)
Cowboys (-13.5) vs. WASHINGTON (+13.5)
49ers (-4) vs. RAMS (+4)
Bills (-3)  vs. DOLPHINS (+3)
SAINTS (-3.5) vs. Falcons (+3.5)
Eagles (-5) vs. GIANTS (+5)
BENGALS (-7) vs. Browns (+7)
PACKERS (-3) vs. Bears (+3)
Seahawks (-2.5) vs. CARDINALS (+2.5)
PATRIOTS (-1.5) vs. Jets (+1.5)
Jaguars (-3.5) vs. TITANS (+3.5)
RAIDERS (-2.5)  vs. Broncos (+2.5)
Buccaneers (-4.5) vs. PANTHERS (+4.5)
LIONS (-3.5) vs. Vikings (+3.5)
CHARGERS (-3.5) vs. Chiefs (+3.5)

Westgate Resorts SuperContest
Steelers vs. RAVENS (+3.5)
Texans vs. COLTS (+1)
Cowboys vs. WASHINGTON (+13)
49ers vs. RAMS (+3.5)
Bills vs. DOLPHINS (+3)
SAINTS vs. Falcons (+3)
Eagles vs. GIANTS (+5)
BENGALS vs. Browns (+7)
PACKERS vs. Bears (+3)
Seahawks vs. CARDINALS (+2.5)
PATRIOTS vs. Jets (+1.5)
Jaguars vs. TITANS (+5.5)
RAIDERS vs. Broncos (+2.5)
Buccaneers vs. PANTHERS (+4.5)
LIONS vs. Vikings (+3.5)
CHARGERS vs. Chiefs (+3.5)

*Favorite Listed First - Home Team in CAPS

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