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NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 18: Advice and Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 1/3/2024

NFL survivor pool picks Week 18 Baker Mayfield Tampa Bay Buccaneers

We are into the final week of the NFL season. And if you are still alive in your survivor pool, congratulations. You have just one final test awaiting you in Week 18, and you've found the right place to get you all the info you need to surpass this final obstacle.  Last week, 10 of our top 11 picks all won outright, including our most confident pick (49ers over Washington) and our official play of the week (Browns over Jets). The lone blip was the Eagles losing to the Cardinals, which hopefully took out a few of your remaining opposition. With more than half of the NFL teams already used, navigating Week 18 will be the most difficult test yet. Here are your Week 18 survivor pool picks, ranked from most to least confident.

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Dallas Cowboys (-13) Over Washington Commanders

If for some reason you still have the Cowboys available, you might as well use them in Week 18. Dallas is the only team this week favored by 7 or more points, and they will make quick work of the Commanders. The NFC East title can be clinched with a victory, and the Commanders have lost 8 straight games and will not want to relinquish their 2nd overall draft pick with an unnecessary victory. There aren't many picks safer in sports than a Cowboys Week 18 victory.

Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) Over New York Giants 

The Eagles have stumbled over the finish line to close out the season. And while they are unlikely to secure the NFC East, they cannot afford to limp into the postseason. Nick Sirianni has demanded physical football from his men all season long, and there is no doubt in my mind the Eagles will finish the year on a win. They are better on offense, defense, coaching, and special teams. And since the Tommy DeVito magic has worn off, the Giants offense is lifeless once again.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) Over Carolina Panthers

I’ve been saving the Buccaneers all season for this week, as with the division on the line, there is no doubt they will prevail. While there won’t be any tanking for the Panthers, as they’ve already secured the worst record in the league, they are still desperate to see what Bryce Young has to offer and will be playing with maximum effort. However, effort will not be enough as a lack of a pass rush will give Baker Mayfield all the time he needs to pick apart a lackluster Panthers secondary. The Buccaneers can secure an unlikely NFC South crown with a win, and they will do just that.

Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) Over Denver Broncos

The Broncos effectively kissed their playoff hopes goodbye when they benched Russell Wilson, and they have no intentions of winning this game. Across the field, Antonio Pierce has revitalized the Raiders defensive unit, and that will be the difference maker here. It’s hard to trust Aidan O’Connell with your survivor pool life at this stage of the season, but he won’t need to score many points to secure the victory thanks to a stingy defensive unit in the Raiders back pocket.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) Over Tennessee Titans

The Jaguars can secure their division with a victory, and a lifeless Tennessee team will not stand in their way. Trevor Lawrence is battered and bruised, but the rest of the Jacksonville team will step up for him. The Titans are drifting down the standings, and an aging core with absolutely nothing to play for will not put up much of a fight against Jacksonville. The Jags snapped their losing streak last week in their shutout against the Panthers and will enter the postseason with their tails in the air after dispatching the Titans.

New England Patriots (-2.5) Over New York Jets

In a battle between two irrelevant teams, the Patriots will prevail. Bill Belichick is fighting for his job security. And while the decision has probably already been made, he will do everything he can to finish off his New England tenure on the right foot. The Jets defense has kept them in more games than they should’ve been in. And in a battle of lackluster offenses, they will fall short. It’ll be a close game, but a few crafty plays from deep in the playbook will be enough to get the Pats over the line.

Detroit Lions (-3) Over Minnesota Vikings

The Lions clinched the NFC North with a win over Minnesota a few weeks ago. And in a battle between Jared Goff and Nick Mullens/Jaren Hall, the Lions will not falter. There isn’t much to play for in the eyes of the Lions, but even their second string is good enough to beat up on the Vikings. Minnesota has been lost ever since Kirk Cousins got injured, and last week's shellacking at the hands of the Packers summed up their year.

New Orleans Saints (-3) Over Atlanta Falcons

The Saints have been extremely inconsistent all season long. However, when they are at their best, they are far better than the lowly Falcons. Atlanta has been disorganized all season, swapping quarterbacks and rarely using their first-round pick in Bijan Robinson. They still have postseason life with a win, but the Saints defense will step up, and their well-rounded, healthy offense will run riot over the Falcons.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) Over Baltimore Ravens

It’s a daunting task to fade the Ravens with your survivor pool life on the line, but if you are interested in getting the sweat out of the way early, Saturday’s matinee is a great spot to do so. The Ravens will not dare risk their starters with the #1 seed already secured. And with Pittsburgh's playoff life on the line, this is a game they must win. Time and time again the Steelers are doubted and find ways to win. And regardless of how dominant the Ravens are on paper, they will do so once again.

Cleveland Browns (+6) Over Cincinnati Bengals

Call me crazy, but I have no idea why the Browns are such heavy underdogs against the Bengals, and I expect them to win outright. There will be starters resting with the #5 seed already secured for Cleveland, but their dominant defensive unit will still rub off on the 2nd stringers. The Browns may not care if they win or lose, but the Bengals actively want to lose this game, as they currently have the 13th pick, and could go as high as 10th with a loss, and 21st with a win.

Chicago Bears (+3) Over Green Bay Packers

I’m loving the Bears in Week 18, as Justin Fields and co. will be eager to finish the season strong, while still keeping the first overall pick via the Panthers. The Packers may have been able to beat up on the Vikings last week, but that doesn’t hide the fact that they are inferior in several areas of the field. Jordan Love has consistently crumbled when it mattered most, and he will do so once again in Week 18, hopefully knocking out some of your competition in the process.

Houston Texans (-1) Over Indianapolis Colts

There are better options on the board, but the Texans should get it done in Week 18 and are a solid pick if you’re in a pickle. In all likelihood, the winner goes to the playoffs and the loser goes home, and one of the Cinderella stories will have a happy ending in the AFC South. CJ Stroud has bounced back from his concussion and has put the Texans in the unlikely place of a postseason berth opportunity in the final week of the season. The Texans offense will be too much for the Colts to overcome, as their aging core limps into an offseason filled with questions.

LA Rams (+3.5) Over San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have no reason to play any of their starters here, while the Rams will be desperate to build some momentum heading into a tough postseason. Christian McCaffrey is already out, and it wouldn't surprise me to see their starters sit after the first quarter if they suit up at all. The Rams young guns will be eager to earn their spot into meaningful playoff snaps, and I expect them to finish off the season with a win over their cross-state rivals.

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) Over Arizona Cardinals

The Seahawks have been poor in recent weeks. And despite poor play from Geno Smith, their run game will be enough to churn out a victory. The Cardinals still have plenty of life, and Kyler Murray’s job is far from secure. However, with a slim chance at playoffs still alive, the Seahawks will do what they need to do and win this one.

LA Chargers (-3) Over Kansas City Chiefs

The line should tell you all you need to know about the personnel expected for the Chiefs, who have already secured the #3 seed in the AFC. Patrick Mahomes will not be playing, leaving the riveting battle between Easton Stick and Blaine Gabbert on tap for Sunday afternoon. If you are alive at this stage of the season, there is absolutely no reason to touch this one, as a battle between the Chiefs second string and the Chargers starting unit will be a tight one. As long as Austin Ekler cares about the $100,000 bonus 110 yards will get him, the Chargers will prevail.

Miami Dolphins (+3) Over Buffalo Bills

Just sit back and enjoy this one. I’ve already gone over 15 options I’m more confident in than this one, as it’s difficult to know what Miami team we will see. I have a sneaky feeling they will silence some of the doubts with an offensive explosion on a weakened Bills defensive unit and secure the AFC East title in the process. You probably have neither of these teams available at this stage of the season, and even if you do, don’t touch this one.

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over Carolina Panthers

Teams Used: Washington Commanders, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, LA Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Baltimore Ravens, New Orleans Saints, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, Cleveland Browns

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