NFL Power Rankings Week 9
I have been writing about football for more than two decades, and for me the bottom line has always been the same. Football is a violent, physical game. The team that is more violent and more physical is going to win more than they are going to lose.
The best way to gauge physicality in the NFL is how teams run the ball. Run the ball and stop the run and things will usually work out well. And we don’t need too many advanced metrics to break down which teams are good at the line of scrimmage and which ones aren’t.
Take a look at the top teams in rushing yards per game. Nine of the top 13 rushing teams, led by Baltimore with over 200 yards per game, are in the Top 11 of my Power Rankings. Minnesota (No. 22) and Houston (No. 18) are the only two squads that I have among the league’s best but that aren’t in the top half of the NFL in rushing yards per game.
Arizona, Miami, Tampa Bay and Indianapolis are among the league leaders in rushing. The Cardinals and Colts are both still on the fringes of the playoff race in their respective conferences. And things were going well for Tampa Bay before injuries decimated the roster.
Rushing defense is another excellent indicator of current success. The top six teams in opponents rushing yards per game – Baltimore, Kansas City, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Detroit and San Francisco – are a who’s who of teams on the short list of Super Bowl favorites.
Denver, Philadelphia and Green Bay round out the Top 10 in rushing defense, and all three are on track for potential postseason berths.
Jacksonville is the only team in the Top 10 in rushing defense that isn’t currently ranked in the Top 20 of my league rankings.
Some people look at coaches. Some look at quarterbacks. Some look at point differential or even just plain old win-loss record. There are a lot of different ways for people to break down strength in the NFL. How teams run the ball and how they handle the run is an oldie but goodie and something that will never go out of style.
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Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (7-0) – At what point are we going to start talking about the odds of Kansas City going undefeated in the regular season? The Chiefs play at Buffalo on Nov. 17 and they are in Pittsburgh on Christmas Day. Other than that, they will likely be at least a touchdown favorite in every other game.
2. Detroit Lions (6-1) – I have honestly never seen anything like Detroit’s boxscore from their 52-14 win over Tennessee. Detroit finished the game with 52 points on just 225 yards for a miniscule 4.3 yards per point. That has to be in the 99th percentile of all games in NFL history. It was another cover for Detroit, who is now an insane 40-14 ATS over their last 54 games.
3. Baltimore Ravens (5-3) – Does Dionte Johnson play cornerback or safety? No? Then I don’t really understand the Ravens trading for more offensive firepower when the problem for this team is clearly its defense. If Kyle Hamilton doesn’t drop one of the easiest interceptions you’re ever going to see, then the Ravens are 6-2. He did, though, and that loss may come back to haunt Baltimore in January.
4. Minnesota Vikings (5-2) – The worst thing about Christian Darrisaw’s season-ending knee injury is how preventable and pointless it was. Minnesota had the ball at its own 3-yard line with 35 seconds left in the half. Why the hell were they running any plays? Just take two knees and get to halftime. Instead, the Vikings lost their left tackle for you rest of the year.
5. Green Bay Packers (6-2) – It looks like we are going to see Malik Willis this week in the key matchup with the Lions in Lambeau. Willis has played well enough in relief to make the Packers think he’ll be fine. And I don’t see them risking Jordan Love and his groin injury with so much of the season remaining. If that’s the case, there is no way I see Willis – who Green Bay refuses to let pass the ball – beating the Lions, even if the game is forecast to be played in the rain and slop.
6. Buffalo Bills (6-2) – That was complete and total domination by the Bills last week in Seattle. Buffalo has covered the spread in three straight games and have beat the Seahawks and Titans by a combined 65-20 the past two weeks. Rain is in the forecast in Buffalo this week as well.
7. Houston Texans (6-2) – With Stefon Diggs now out for the season, and Nico Collins on IR until at least until Week 10, all the pressure is on C.J. Stroud to elevate the Houston passing game. The Texans still have the No. 8 passing offense in the league. But Houston has managed just 563 yards in the air over its last three games.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) – That was an awful decision by Mike Tomlin not to go for the win on 4th-and-2 at the two-minute warning. It is tough to argue with a guy whose team is 6-2 and who will be a Hall of Fame coach. But that type of uber-conservative, old school approach will hold this team back.
9. San Francisco 49ers (4-4) – I will believe Christian McCaffery is back when I see it. San Francisco has its bye this week, and this is its last chance to get the troops healthy before a needed second half run.
10. Washington Commanders (6-2) – Washington already beat the lowly Giants once this year and now get New York off a Monday Night Football game. The Giants have dominated this series over the past decade, however, and the favorite is just 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings between these two teams.
11. Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) – Over the past three weeks, the Eagles are 3-0, and their defense has allowed just 29 points and 643 yards. The 29 points are the fewest the Eagles have allowed in a three-week span since 2016, and the 643 yards are the second fewest the Eagles have allowed in any three-game span since 1992.
12. Atlanta Falcons (5-3) – According to The Athletic, since 2020, the Atlanta Falcons are last in the league with just 116 sacks, and since 2010 they are last in the league with 420 sacks. Also, since 2000, they are second to last in total sacks with 777, but that is only because the Texans didn’t start playing until 2002. Tampa Bay dropped back 50 times last Sunday, and Atlanta didn’t get to them once.
13. Chicago Bears (4-3) – Anyone that has read this space knows that I think Matt Eberflus is an incompetent. I don’t have much to add to the national discussion about the flagrant stupidity we saw from Chicago’s coaching staff on Sunday. I will say that I will be amazed if the negative vibes from that last-second loss don’t linger into the next week or two for this squad.
14. Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) – The Chargers have beaten the Browns in four straight meetings. However, the favorite is just 2-7 ATS in this series dating back to 2006. The Chargers lost their last game as a road favorite (at Arizona), and I think that this is one of the softest favorites on the board. That’s why nearly 70 percent of the bets this week are coming down against this team on the road.
15. Denver Broncos (5-3) – There is a chance that Denver is walking into a buzzsaw this week. Baltimore must be furious that it gave away a game at Cleveland last week. Denver, meanwhile, has been feasting on weak sisters like the Saints, Panthers and Raiders over the past month.
16. Arizona Cardinals (4-4) – The Cardinals have now won back-to-back games for the first time since 2021, a span of 47 games. They very easily could’ve lost both of those games – the two wins have come by a combined three points – and they would likely be 3-point underdogs against the Bears this week if they were 2-6 instead of 4-4. Arizona is only taking around 20 percent of the early action in this week’s game against Chicago.
17. Los Angeles Rams (3-4) – When Matt Stafford gets cooking, he can still move the ball and put points on the board. I don’t trust Cooper Kupp to stay healthy, though, and he still doesn’t look right at all. The Rams are 8-3 in their last 11 games that they’ve played with Stafford, Kyren Williams, Kupp and Puka Nacua all starting (and finishing) the game together.
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) – The Bucs have gone ‘over’ in five straight games thanks to one of the NFL’s worst defenses. Tampa Bay has allowed an average of 30.2 points per game over that span and will now face a Kansas City offense that hit them for 41 points in their last meeting (2022).
19. Seattle Seahawks (4-4) – Seattle is getting pushed around on both sides of the ball. The Seahawks are ranked No. 23 in the NFL in yard before contact per rush (1.78) and 28th in yards per carry allowed. (4.9). Offensively, they mustered just 32 rushing yards on 17 carries against the Bills. If you can’t run the ball or stop the run in the NFL, you aren’t going to win many games.
20. Dallas Cowboys (3-4) – There are currently 10 individual NFL players that have more rushing yards than the 519 that Dallas has run for as a team. The Cowboys are obviously No. 32 in the NFL in rushing, and there isn’t help on the way.
21. Indianapolis Colts (4-4) – Anthony Richardson was 2-for-15 for 81 yards in the first half of last week’s game, with one touchdown and one interception. And that 69-yard touchdown was the result of a busted coverage, not some amazing play by Richardson. Indianapolis is going back to Joe Flacco this week, and there is no doubt that it will give this offense a jolt, as Richardson, a.k.a. New JaMarcus Russell, sits and watches.
22. Cincinnati Bengals (3-5) – The Bengals have been too good at home for too long for them to continue dumping games in Cincinnati. That said, I don’t think they have shown anything to make me think they deserve to be over a touchdown favorite against anyone. Remember: this team has already lost to one of the dregs (New England) at home, and they are 0-2 SU and ATS at home this year as a favorite of more than six points.
23. New York Jets (2-6) – Hahahaha! Is there anything more fun than watching Aaron Rodgers be a total loser every week?
24. Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) – The Raiders are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 non-divisional games east of the Mississippi River. The Raiders are terrible pretty much everywhere. But they have really struggled on those trips out East when dealing with that 10 a.m. PST kickoff time.
25. New York Giants (2-5) – Just a phenomenal number of mistakes by the Giants on Monday. They had 11 penalties, took sacks to knock them out of field goal range, had completely preventable turnovers, a special teams meltdown, and whatever the hell that was on their two-point conversion. Did I miss anything? The Giants are No. 31 in the league in scoring (14.6) and their 10 offensive touchdowns in seven games is also second worst in the NFL.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) – Christian Kirk is out for the season with a broken collarbone. Rookie sensation Brian Thomas (who has been outstanding) is day-to-day with bruised ribs. Gabe Davis left last game with a shoulder injury. The Jaguars receiver room has been decimated, and I would expect about 40+ rushing attempts out of the Jaguars in Philadelphia on Sunday.
27. Miami Dolphins (2-5) – Where does this team go from here? The Dolphins are 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and the morale in that locker room must be at an all-time low. Miami is 0-5 SU in its last five games against Buffalo, and their last nine losses have come by an average of 16.1 points per game. They have only stayed within six points in three of those nine losses.
28. Cleveland Browns (2-6) – Jameis Winston led the Cleveland offense to more than 20 points for the first time in 10 games. I think there will be a little value with this team on the ‘over’ in the next few weeks. Not just because Cleveland will be better with Winston under center than Deshaun Watson. But also because Winston’s turnover-prone ways are going to lead to plenty of points for opponents as well.
29. New England Patriots (2-6) – I think it should be a new rule that no matter what sport it is, we automatically bet on any team in its next game after its head coach or manager calls the team out for being soft. The Pats have lost their last three road games by an average of 18 points per game, and they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after a win.
30. Tennessee Titans (1-6) – It isn’t often that you see a team allow 52 points and lose by five touchdowns one week and then be favored in the next. Welcome to the NFL in 2024.
31. New Orleans Saints (2-6) – It looks like Derek Carr will be back and available under center this week in Carolina. Even so, and even considering how bad the Panthers have been, I don’t know that New Orleans and its CFL-caliber roster deserves to be favored against any team in the NFL right now. Much less favored by seven points on the road.
32. Carolina Panthers (1-7) – The Panthers are now a pathetic 7-19 ATS in their 26 games dating back to last year. Their last nine losses have come by an average score of 34-10. Their -18.4 points per game differential is on pace to be the worst in the NFL over the last 25 years, and we have to start talking about this two-year stretch for Carolina as one of the worst of all time.
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