NFL Power Rankings Week 8
Parity has long been one of the NFL’s superpowers.
A thin spectrum of talent and ability throughout the league helps keeps things interesting. The league wants close, competitive games. They want “any given Sunday” to ring true. They want upsets and intensity and surprises to keep people coming back for more.
This year, parity is out the window.
It is clear that there are two powerhouse teams – the Chiefs and the Ravens – and then everyone else in the NFL.
Now, that first tier of teams past the two top title contenders is very good. Teams No. 3-9 are all top-quality contenders. The same way you had to beat Sandman and Macho Man in Mike Tyson’s Punch Out! before you got to Tyson himself.
After that there is a clear middle class in the league. The Commanders. The Bears. The Chargers. The Eagles. The Falcons. The Bengals. These are all good, but obviously limited teams that are nowhere near championship caliber. They can jump up and bite one of the teams in the Top 10. But they also have enough holes in their games that you never really feel confident in them either.
Finally, we have the bottom tier. And I can say definitively that this is one of the worst lower-thirds I can remember in any recent NFL season. The bottom 10 teams in the NFL are just straight bad. Irredeemably bad.
The fact that the Las Vegas Raiders are 2-5 and have been outscored by 59 points on the season and still have eight teams worse than them tells you all you need to know.
But it actually doesn’t tell you everything, because it actually gets worse!
The bottom five teams in this week’s Power Rankings went 0-5 and lost their games by a combined 159-57.
Again, this is as atrocious of a bottom 25 percent of the league that I can remember. And right now parity is completely out the window each week in the NFL.
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Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (6-0) – Never say, “never” when it comes to gambling. Actually, scratch that: I’m never going to bet against the Chiefs again. They have fully entered “mid-2010’s Patriots” mode where there is literally no upside in putting money down against them. No, the Chiefs aren’t going to cover every game. They aren’t even going to win every game. But there is simply no point in betting on this group to fail.
2. Baltimore Ravens (5-2) – That is now five straight wins both straight up and against the spread for this group. I simply don’t know how teams are supposed to stop this offense. They are averaging 36.8 points per game over their last four and they are 6-1 against the total so far this season.
3. Detroit Lions (5-1) – Over the last four games the Lions have scored more touchdowns (18) than Jared Goff has thrown incompletions. The Lions are now 39-14 ATS (74%) over their last 53 games dating back to Nov. 1, 2021. I keep waiting for the books to catch up with this team but it just hasn’t happened.
4. Minnesota Vikings (5-1) – It is going to be interesting to see how the Vikings react to their first loss of the season. They are going to be a popular pick on Thursday to rebound against the Rams. And Minnesota is clearly the better team in that game. However, this is a game on the road, on a short week, and that last-second heartbreaker against the Lions could linger a little bit longer.
5. Green Bay Packers (5-2) – I don’t know if there is any quarterback in the league right now that passes up as many easy throws to make difficult throws as Jordan Love. He just loves forcing the ball when there are better options available and that is part of the reasons turnovers are becoming a problem for this offense.
6. Houston Texans (5-2) – Houston has a very telling week ahead. They host division rival Indianapolis on Sunday and then have a short turnaround Thursday in New York against the Jets. The early line on that Jets game has the Jets as a 1.5-point favorite so we will see if that line moves at all over the next seven days.
7. Buffalo Bills (5-2) – Ho-hum. The Bills do have problems. Real problems. But they just keep winning and covering spreads. Buffalo is now 4-2 ATS in its last six games. Buffalo is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 games as a road favorite. They also haven’t played in Seattle since 2016.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) – George Pickens is awesome. I’m picking up some very Antonio Bryant-vibes from Pickens and I’m sure the back half of his career (likely after he inks a massive free agent contract) is sure to feature an entertaining implosion. But at the moment this guy is as good as anyone in the NFL. And if the Steelers can get above average quarterback play out of Rusty Wilson then they are good enough to be a factor in the AFC.
9. San Francisco 49ers (3-4) – Just as I predicted, this team is falling apart in front of our very eyes. Brandon Aiyuk is out for the season. JaJuan Jennings is questionable. Deebo Samuel is trying to come back from pneumonia and is unreliable even in the best of circumstances. C-Mac may never come back. This team looks like it is on the precipice and if Brock Purdy wants to prove that he is a true franchise quarterback, and not just a game manager, now is the time to do it.
10. Washington Commanders (5-2) – Keep an eye on Jayden Daniels’ status this week. Rib injuries are painful. But a lot of quarterbacks play through them with a flak jacket or extra padding. I think that Marcus Mariota played well enough in relief last week to make the Commanders feel confident that he can cover for Daniels this week. I think Daniels is worth at least 3.5 points on the spread if he plays.
11. Atlanta Falcons (4-3) – The Falcons had more plays, more first downs, more yards and more time of possession on Sunday against the Seahawks. It’s not often that you see that from a team that lost by 20 points. As I mentioned last week: this pass rush is a joke. I don’t know if it is scheme or talent but this group just cannot consistently get pressure on opposing quarterbacks and that just won’t work against any competent NFL opposition.
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3) – Monday’s loss to Baltimore was absolutely brutal because it cost the Bucs two All Pro receivers. They haven’t released any info, but I’ll be surprised if Mike Evans misses less than a month with that hamstring pull and Chris Godwin is now out for the year. I was a big fan of this scrappy Bucs squad – and it would’ve been interesting to see how the game unfolded if Evans didn’t drop that touchdown pass in the second quarter to put Tampa up 17-7 – but without Evans and Godwin their passing game is going to be severely limited.
13. Chicago Bears (4-2) – The Bears are 2-0 ATS the last two seasons out of a bye week under Matt Eberflus. Chicago also throttled Washington 40-20 on the road last year and have beaten them in two of the last three meetings.
14. Seattle Seahawks (4-3) – The Seahawks are now 18-5 in their last 23 games that kick off at 1 p.m. the Eastern Time Zone. D.K. Metcalf was an absolute force in that win over Atlanta. However, losing him for several weeks to an MCL sprain wasn’t worth the price of the victory.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (4-2) – Last week was the first time the Eagles ran the ball 45 or more times and threw the ball 15 or fewer times in 46 years. Also, their 13 sacks over the past two games are the team’s most in a two-game span in over 30 years. Also, last week was only the second time in 16 years the Eagles have held back-to-back teams without an offensive touchdown.
16. Los Angeles Chargers (3-3) – This team’s limits were on full display on Monday. Their lack of talent at the receiver position is an anchor around this offense. They also aren’t talented enough to overcome mistakes, and their two early turnovers were both crippling, costing the team at least 10 points. Fortunately for the Chargers they have a cushy schedule the next several weeks, facing the Saints, Browns and Patriots. I’d be stunned if they lost any of those three games.
17. Dallas Cowboys (3-3) – This week feels like a last stand for the Cowboys. They are coming off a humiliating loss that they’ve had to sit on for two weeks. They are off a bye week so they should be healthy and prepared. They are on the road as underdogs against a battered rival. They also have a lot of pent-up revenge after getting embarrassed 42-10 by the 49ers last year and losing to them in the playoffs each of the two seasons before that. If Dallas can’t put forward a competitive effort here then their season is pretty much over.
18. Indianapolis Colts (4-3) – I’ve already made my feelings about Anthony Richardson known. He’s like if Cam Newton and Jake Locker had a baby. And if he plays as poorly against the Texans as he did against the Dolphins then Indy is going to get lit up. The Colts are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games against the Texans and are 3-0-1 (yes, they tied in 2022) in their last four games in Houston.
19. Cincinnati Bengals (3-4) – Is it a red flag that the Bengals are favored over the Eagles this weekend? The Bengals are getting an awful lot of mileage out of wins over the Browns and Giants – two teams that absolutely suck – over the last two weeks. They are 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and somehow 0-3 SU and ATS in their three home games this year.
20. Denver Broncos (4-3) – Denver is now 4-1 ATS in its last five games. They pummeled one banged-up NFC South team last week when they blew out New Orleans. They should be able to do the same this week against the banged-up Panthers.
21. Arizona Cardinals (3-4) – Win on Monday, lose on Sunday. The Cardinals are going to put Cody’s Theory to the test this week. Their defense bowed up against the run (finally) and their offense was efficient in their win over the Chargers. However, Arizona is now an underdog against one of the worst teams in football (Miami) and they have to make a long flight east for the dreaded 10 a.m. EST start time on a short week. It’s a bad situational spot…but Arizona is still the better team.
22. New York Jets (2-5) – I don’t recall who said it last week, but they summed up the addition of Devante Adams perfectly for this team: “It’s look putting a new stereo system on a boat that has a gaping hole in the hull.”
23. Los Angeles Rams (2-4) – Cooper Kupp is expected back on Thursday. But anyone that is expecting him to revert to 2020 Cooper Kupp is going to be disappointed. He did not look right before this most recent injury and I think that Kupp is shot. His receiving yards over/under on Thursday is 69.5 and I know I’m going to be on that ‘under’.
24. Las Vegas Raiders (2-5) – The Raiders actually won the last meeting with the Chiefs, beating them 20-14 in Arrowhead on Christmas last year. Las Vegas was a 10.5-point underdog in that game, which is the same number they face this week at home. The Raiders are just 2-8 SU in their last 10 against the Chiefs and 4-6 ATS in those games.
25. New York Giants (2-5) – The Giants have now scored 16 points at home this year. They had 11 possessions of five plays or lest last week and they had six drives that yielded two or fewer yards. Somehow, this offense is even worse this year (14.1 points per game to 15.6 last year) than last season’s group. Is it Tommy DeVito time?
26. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) – Everyone has their own reason why Doug Pederson should probably be fired. Here’s mine: it was the absolutely height of stupidity for him to pass on a field goal at the end of a 17-play, 82-yard drive that sucked 11:34 off the clock spanning the third and fourth quarters. It was 4th-and-1 from the 6-yard line and the Jags had been running the ball down New England’s throat. It doesn’t matter. Jacksonville was up 15 with 11:10 to play. A chip-shot 23-yard field goal would’ve made it a three-score game and virtually guaranteed the win. There is no math, no analytics, no reasoning that would suggest going for it at that moment was the right call.
27. Miami Dolphins (2-4) – The Dolphins scored as many points in one game against Denver last season (70) as they have in six games this season. How is that even possible? I don’t want to hear about Tua’s injury. Joe Burrow went down for the Bengals last year and their offense still lit it up with Jake Browning at the helm. Miami was the No. 1 offense in the NFL last year with over 400 yard per game and they were No. 2 in scoring at 29.2 points per. This season they are scoring 11.7 per game while earning just over 300 yards.
28. Tennessee Titans (1-5) – The Titans have been outscored in the second half 94-43 this season and more than 50 percent of their second half points (22) came in their win over Miami.
29. New Orleans Saints (2-5) – This is an absolute husk of a team. This squad isn’t NFL-caliber by any measurement. Injuries have decimated this team and they will not be competitive until they have enough actual NFL-level players on the roster to field a real team.
30. Cleveland Browns (1-6) – The Browns are now 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games. Cleveland has actually split the season series with the Ravens each of the past three seasons. They are just 3-6 SU and ATS in the meetings since 2019, though, and the underdog is just 3-6 ATS when these teams face off.
31. New England Patriots (1-6) – I mentioned earlier that Doug Pederson’s stupidity allowed the Patriots to stay in that game in the fourth quarter. Well, Jarod Mayo’s own incompetence prevented the Patriots from capitalizing. Down 15 points with 8:22 to play the Patriots scored a touchdown. Unequivocally the right decision at that moment is to kick the extra point and make it a one-score (eight-point game). Instead, Mayo went for two, didn’t get it, and left it as a two-score game. That move completely changed the play-calling and game-management strategy for both teams. It’s pretty simple arithmetic. Yet it never ceases to amaze me how many coaches continue to blow these calls.
32. Carolina Panthers (1-6) – Yes, the Panthers should be an automatic fade for the rest of this season. Or at least until they prove they can stay within double digits of anyone. Kick out that win over the putrid Raiders in Week 3 and the Panthers are 0-6, have been outscored by a combined 221-74 score line. Their average margin of defeat is 24.5 points.
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