NFL Power Rankings Week 7
The North remembers.
Last year the best division in the NFL was clearly the AFC North. The division sent three teams to the playoffs, including the conference’s No. 1 seed, Baltimore. All four teams in the 2023 AFC North finished above .500, and the group combined to go 43-25 straight up and 41-27 against the spread.
This year the league’s best division is clearly the NFC North. And they may surpass all the gaudy numbers the 2023 AFC North produced.
Minnesota (5-0), Detroit (4-1), Green Bay (4-2) and Chicago (4-2) have combined to go 17-5 straight up and an amazing 18-4 against the spread to start the season. The Vikings are the NFC’s only undefeated team, and this is the only division since realignment to have all four teams win four games by Week 6.
How dominant has the NFC North been early in this season? Their four teams lead the NFL in scoring differential: Vikings +63, Lions +60, Bears +47, and Packers +41.
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Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) – Andy Reid is 21-4 straight up in post-bye week regular season games across his first 25 years as a head coach. Including the playoffs, Reid is 30-7 SU and 24-13 ATS after a week of rest. Also, Patrick Mahomes is 19-6 ATS in his last 25 games as a favorite of 3.0 or less or an underdog.
2. Detroit Lions (4-1) – You really can’t underestimate what the loss of Aiden Hutchinson means to this team and this defense. Hutchinson was headed for a First Team All-Pro season and was a clear difference-maker on a defense that is still the weak link of this squad. It is also a red flag whenever an NFL team coming off a win of 30 or more points is posted as an underdog the following week.
3. Baltimore Ravens (4-2) – Lamar Jackson is now 22-1 straight up in his career against teams from the NFC. That includes a pair of wins over Tampa Bay in 2018 and 2022 and a 2-0 start against NFC foes this season. The Ravens have never lost to the Buccaneers, but the favorite is just 1-4 ATS in the five meetings they’ve had over the past 20 years. Jackson is just 11-7 ATS in his last 18 against the NFC, although three of those ATS losses came as double-digit favorites.
4. Minnesota Vikings (5-0) – The Vikings have lost three straight and four of five to the Lions. Minnesota actually outgained the Lions in both meetings last year but lost those two games thanks to six, count ‘em: six, interceptions from Nick Mullens. Minnesota was -5 in the turnover battle in those two games and will have to do a better job of taking care of the ball this week if they want to snap their losing streak to Detroit.
5. Houston Texans (5-1) – The Texans are now 12-4 straight up in their last 16 regular season games. They are 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in their last seven road games. Interestingly, last week’s 20-point win over the Patriots was just the second time in those last 16 games that they beat a team by more than six points.
6. Green Bay Packers (4-2) – Turnovers are a notoriously volatile statistic. Green Bay’s 17 takeaways through six games are completely unsustainable. They are average in total defense (No. 18) and average in opponents’ third down conversions (No. 16). Below average in pass defense (No. 25) and have been lit up for over 30 points by the two best offenses they’ve faced (Minnesota and Philadelphia). Houston’s attack will be a huge test for this group.
7. San Francisco 49ers (3-3) – This will be just the 10th time where the teams that met in the previous Super Bowl have a regular season rematch the next year. Last year, Philadelphia was able to avenge their championship loss with a 21-17 regular season win. However, Super Bowl losers seeking revenge in these regular season matchups have gone just 3-6 SU in rematch games.
8. Buffalo Bills (4-2) – I was a big fan of Ray Davis coming out of Kentucky and have written about the hidden gem that the Bills drafted when they took him in the fourth round of last year’s draft. Davis has overcome incredible hardships in his life, and the kid really is a great success story. I’ll be rooting for him, and I think he has a chance to be a stud in the NFL.
9. Atlanta Falcons (4-2) – It is absolutely astonishing that the Falcons have mustered only five sacks through six games this year. Just unreal. The Giants already have 26! The Falcons have had the worst pass rush in the league for over a decade, and it is just baffling that they cannot solve this problem either through scheme or personnel.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) – The Bucs have scored 117 points over their last three games and are humming on offense. They already have two outright wins as underdogs this year, hammering Philadelphia 33-16 and beating Detroit 20-16 as a touchdown underdog. The Bucs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog, with eight outright upsets. Don’t be surprised if they give the Ravens everything they can handle.
11. Washington Commanders (4-2) – This week is a telling game for Washington. They are still licking their wounds after losing top their Beltway rivals, the Ravens. But Carolina is pathetic. If Washington is going to be a real player in the NFC this season, and not just a bad team that got off to a good start before fading, then they need to rebound with a double-digit win this week. Washington was 0-3 ATS as a favorite last year, with two outright losses.
12. Chicago Bears (4-2) – Yes, the Bears are beating the dregs of the NFL lately. However, Chicago is doing what good teams do to the bottom feeders of the league. They are burying bad teams early. They aren’t letting them hang around. They aren’t humping the dog and playing sloppy football. The Bears have thrown back-to-back first round knockout punches.
13. Seattle Seahawks (3-3) – I still may have this team ranked too high. Their wins have come against nobodies (Broncos, Pats, Fins), while their losses have come against the Lions, Giants and 49ers by an average of 11.3 points per game. Mike Macdonald’s defense has been a joke the last three weeks, allowing an average of 36 points per game. The ‘over’ is 8-2 in Seattle’s last 10 games against the Falcons.
14. Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) – The Eagles have gone 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Giants, and most of those games haven’t been close. A lot is being made of this as the Saquon Barkley Revenge Game. If the Eagles are smart, they won’t force the ball to Barkley, instead using New York’s fear of him to set up their play action game. The Eagles are 24th in rushing and 29th in scoring, so whatever they are doing isn’t working. It may be time to mix some things up.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) – I know there’s a lot of talk about the wisdom of changing quarterbacks when your team is winning. I have to ask, though, does is really matter right now who is under center for the Steelers? Pittsburgh is winning with defense and toughness. I don’t know if Rusty Wilson is going to change that equation. And either he will outplay Fields and give this offense a boost, or he will end his career in failure (at which point the Steelers go back to Fields). I can support the risk-reward calculation Mike Tomlin is making here.
16. Los Angeles Chargers (3-2) – Run the ball and play good defense. Football can be a real simple game. The Chargers are playing mistake-free football, and defensive coordinator Jesse Minter deserves a load of credit for turning this into the No. 1 scoring defense in football. I still don’t think the Chargers can or will beat the top teams in the league. But they will stay in the AFC playoff race and keep cashing ATS tickets if they continue to do the little things right.
17. Dallas Cowboys (3-3) – Happy birthday Jerry! That embarrassment on Sunday was the worst home loss for the Cowboys since 1988, the year before Jones purchased the team, and tied for the biggest margin of defeat in Jones’ tenure. The Cowboys have now lost four straight home games while allowing 167 points, the third-most for a home team in NFL history.
18. Indianapolis Colts (3-3) – There is no way that the Colts can go back to Anthony Richardson over Joe Flacco right now. Flacco is still a turnover waiting to happen. But much like Andy Dalton in Carolina, there is no doubt who the better quarterback is at the moment. The Colts have won three of four and covered the spread in four straight, and right now this appears to be a team that a lot of people are overlooking in the AFC.
19. Cincinnati Bengals (2-4) – The Bengals are just 2-6 SU in their last eight games against the Browns. The home team has won five straight in this series, and I don’t know that I trust the Bengals as road favorites for a second straight week. I also don’t trust that the Bengals defense has somehow turned the corner after holding the Giants to just seven points. Cincinnati’s DYPP of 44.1 was by far the highest of any team last week, and I can see them getting touched up by the Browns this week.
20. Denver Broncos (3-3) – I don’t know if there is any team in the league that is less enjoyable to watch than these Broncos. Sure, there are worse teams. But from a purely aesthetic standpoint, this team plays some of the ugliest football in the league. They are No. 29 in total offense and No. 25 in points scored. And even with a Top 5 defense, I don’t know that I would be keen on laying points on the road with this squad.
21. Arizona Cardinals (2-4) – If you wanted to be an optimist, you could look at Arizona’s schedule and see that the Cardinals have faced a brutal slate (Bills, Lions, Commanders, 49ers, Packers) loaded with top teams. So it’s not a surprise that they’ve lost four games. The problem is that Arizona just hasn’t looked sharp in those losses and has been erratic all season. You just don’t know who is going to show up with this group – and that makes them dangerous to bet on or against.
22. New York Jets (2-4) – They can have Devante Adams. They deserve him. Woody Johnson sounded delusional after New York’s loss to Buffalo. Considering his off-field associations, that’s not surprising, though. The Jets defense could not stop the run at all against Buffalo, and they can’t protect the quarterback on offense. But, sure, adding an aging, diva wide receiver should definitely fix what ails this team.
23. New Orleans Saints (2-4) – Injuries have decimated this group. There’s just nothing left. New Orleans has now lost four straight games (1-3 ATS), and there simply aren’t enough healthy pieces on offense to compensate for what has become the league’s No. 32 ranked total defense.
24. New York Giants (2-4) – Daniel Jones is now 1-14 in primetime games. When I heard that stat, my first thought was, “How the hell has this guy played in 15 primetime games?” Jones is also 0-5 at home over the past two years, and Tyrone Tracy’s touchdown run was the first that a Jones-led offense has scored at home since the 2022 season.
25. Los Angeles Rams (1-4) – These guys really aren’t that much healthier coming out of their bye week. They still don’t have Puka Nacua, and I think that Cooper Kupp is washed. Offensive linemen Joe Noteboom and Steve Avila are also still likely to miss this game. The defense is healthy, but still just pretty awful. I’m not high on this squad coming out of a week off.
26. Las Vegas Raiders (2-4) – This team is headed off the rails. They are now 1-3 ATS in their last four games, and the only win was a comeback victory against lowly Cleveland. The Raiders aren’t just getting bombed, with their losses coming by an average of 15 points per game, but they are getting bombed by bad teams. It’s ridiculous for a team to allow 30 or more points to Denver and Pittsburgh, and we have not seen the bottom yet for this group.
27. Tennessee Titans (1-4) – For as bad as this team has played, and for as ugly as its offense is with Will Levis at the helm, the Titans have only lost one game by more than a touchdown this year. Also, the underdog is 7-1 ATS in Tennessee’s series with Buffalo. The Titans and Bills met five straight years from 2018-2022, with the Titans winning twice and losing just once (2022) by more than a touchdown.
28. Miami Dolphins (2-3) – I’ve very curious to see how this team looks coming out of a much-needed week off. The Dolphins, who came into the season with a lot of hype, were an embarrassment in a MNF loss in Week 4 and then ugly in a fluke win over New England. This could be a defining moment in Mike McDaniel’s young head coaching career.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) – Stupid penalties, bad turnovers, dropped touchdowns and assignment breakdowns; the Jaguars are an absolute disaster. And if they lose to New England on Sunday in London, you can rest assured that Doug Pederson is going to lose his job. If that doesn’t motivate this team – which also has the advantage of spending the week in London in between games – then nothing will.
30. Cleveland Browns (1-5) – The Browns are the first team in a decade to be held below 20 points in each of their first six games of the season. As pointed out by Field Yates, the Browns have scored once in their last 29 drives. This team also failed to convert on 26 straight third downs and has been successful on just 19.2 percent of their third downs this year.
31. New England Patriots (1-5) – We have a rookie coach and a rookie quarterback heading to London after a 20-point home loss. What could possibly go wrong? This team is starting two offensive tackles that were picked up off waivers at the end of the preseason. That tells you all you need to know about Drake Maye’s chances of success.
32. Carolina Panthers (1-5) – Can you believe there are only 21 days left to the election? God I can’t wait until it is over so I can stop being bombarded with political ads! Oh yeah, the Panthers still suck.
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