NFL Power Rankings Week 5
Last week we touched on the prevalence of ‘unders’ in the new, lower-scoring NFL.
Quite naturally, the ‘under’ went just 7-9 last week. That’s how regression and the market works. By the time that bettors lock on to a trend, the books have already adjusted the numbers the other way. So just when natural statistics revert toward the mean, the odds have already gone in the opposite direction.
This week I wanted to touch on the other marquee early season trends: underdogs.
The dogs have been cleaning up through the first month of the NFL campaign. Depending on what line you use (opening, closing, or Thursday release) underdogs are somewhere around 38-26 against the spread to start the year, a healthy 59.4 percent success rate.
What is undeniable is the fact that underdog have won 27 of 64 NFL games outright this year, a tremendous 42 percent winning rate.
Even more glaring has been the success of large underdogs. Underdogs catching five or more points are on a jaw-dropping 16-2 ATS run. That includes a 9-2 ATS mark the last two weeks, with six outright upsets.
The sportsbooks have clearly caught on. And heading into Week 5, there are just three underdogs that fit the bill: the Giants +6.0 (at Seattle), the Cardinals +7.5 (at San Francisco) and the Saints (+5.0) at Kansas City.
So, have we reached the saturation point on these large dogs? Or how about underdogs in general? No doubt the public is starting to catch on to the trend. But what can the sportsbooks do to counter? Because you know that they will.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) – This feels like just about the time of the year for a lull from this group. They started their title defense hot. They are unbeaten and already two games up in what is a feeble division. Injuries are starting to crop up. Maybe the focus starts to drift. The Chiefs have their bye after this week’s MNF game before dates with the 49ers and Raiders.
2. Detroit Lions (3-1) – Dan Campbell snubbed Jared Goff on Monday night, giving the game ball for Detroit’s win to Jameson Williams and Kerby Joseph! That’s pretty funny and kind of shows how oblivious Campbell is. Goff set an NFL record for passes without a incompletion and had a game that should vault him into the MVP conversation, going 18-for-18 for 292 yards and two touchdowns, adding a receiving touchdown as well.
3. Baltimore Ravens (2-2) – The Ravens have converted 90 percent of their red zone opportunities into touchdowns over the last three weeks, and they have reverted to form as a sledgehammer on both sides of the ball. They are leading the league in rushing at 220.3 yards per game and allowing a league-low 57.8 yards per game. If they keep dominating the line of scrimmage, they will keep winning games.
4. Buffalo Bills (3-1) – The Bills are 14-4 straight up and 11-7 ATS in their last 18 games after a loss since the start of the 2020 NFL season. That said, it is odd to see an NFL team coming off a 25-point blowout loss installed as a road favorite against a fellow playoff team the next week.
5. Minnesota Vikings (4-0) – That was a monster day for Byron Murphy. His interception and his forced fumble in the fourth quarter against Green Bay were two of the biggest plays of the weekend. Both plays came in the last seven minutes of the game, blunted Green Bay’s momentum, and allowed the Vikings to hang on for a clutch win.
6. Houston Texans (3-1) – This is a good, young team, but they are getting a little overhyped. Houston is now 0-5 ATS in its last five games. One of their problems is a complete lack of discipline. They are averaging 10.0 penalties per game, No. 32 in the league. This comes one year after Houston was No. 31 in the NFL in penalties per game. That’s going to be a killer against top-tier teams.
7. Green Bay Packers (2-2) – Nobody is going to win in the NFL turning the ball over four times and missing two field goals. The Packers did show a lot of heart fighting their way back from a 28-0 deficit, though, and that should carry over into this week. Green Bay is 9-1 SU and 10-0 ATS against the Rams since 2007. They have beaten them in the regular season each of the past three years, but this is their first meeting outside of Lambeau since 2018.
8. Seattle Seahawks (3-1) – I loved the fight that Seattle showed, and a postseason rematch with Detroit would be a blast. Mike Macdonald looked like a rookie coach and will have to tighten things up. First, he shouldn’t have gone for two down two touchdowns in the third quarter. Going for two after a score down two touchdowns is the right play – but not until the fourth quarter. That was too early to chase points. Second, I know he is Mr. Blitz. But Detroit was ready for the pressure, and Macdonald didn’t show a counterpunch.
9. New Orleans Saints (2-2) – The Saints are one of two teams in the league (Washington) converting over 50 percent of their third downs (53.2%). Also, the Saints have had a scoring drive following an opponent’s scoring drive 11 of the last 15 times. They are fantastic at answering their opponents. And they are going to need to be if they want to keep up with Patrick Mahomes this Sunday.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) – The Bucs are 6-2 straight up in their last eight games with the Falcons, including a 29-25 win in Atlanta last December. That game featured a pair of lead changes in the final four minutes and Baker Mayfield executing a 75-yard touchdown drive in the finals three minutes. The Bucs are converting only 32.4 percent of their third downs over the last three weeks and have struggled against non-Washington defenses.
11. San Francisco 49ers (2-2) – Six more players left last Sunday’s game with injury, including Pro Bowlers Fred Warner, George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk. Nick Bosa and the Niners defensive line deserve a ton of credit for picking up the slack for the banged-up Niners. But, like Kansas City, I just don’t know how much longer San Francisco can go on like this while playing without a full deck.
12. Philadelphia Eagles (2-2) – I don’t know if it is going to help this team or hurt this team to have its bye week so early in the season. They obviously have a ton of things to iron out. But the cracks in the foundation of this team may be too big to overcome. The Eagles are now 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) – The Steelers should get a bump from playing just their second home game of the season after three of four on the road. I don’t know how much I trust this team as a favorite, though. Justin Fields has done a great job of taking care of the ball, turning it over only three times, but I can’t help but feel like more are coming and that this team isn’t as strong as its record.
14. Atlanta Falcons (2-2) – Both Dennis Allen and Raheem Morris showed how much they have matured in their second head coaching gig. Their dueling game management in the last four minutes really displayed maturity. Now, Zac Robinson (Atlanta’s OC), on the other hand, is lucky that Younghoe Koo nailed that 58-yard field goal. Calling three straight passes down the field (resulting in three straight incompletions and zero yards) was jaw-droppingly stupid.
15. Washington Commanders (3-1) – This might be too low. We’ve seen this before with rookie/young quarterbacks and high-octane offenses coming out of nowhere to propel bad teams from worst-to-first. It’s not a stretch to think that could be the case here. Kliff Kingsbury was a total loser as a head coach. But we obviously just had another Peter Principle guy, and now his offensive chops are showing. Washington has gone ‘over’ in three of four games. And between their ultra-efficient attack and terrible defense, I see plenty more shootouts for this group.
16. Dallas Cowboys (2-2) – I would like to once again point out that one of the most flawed, overused angles in NFL betting is the expectation that teams that play on Thursday nights have an added advantage the following week because they had ‘extra time to prepare’. I’ve been tracking this for years, and NFL teams that play the previous Thursday spectacularly underperform in their next game. Case in point: teams that play on Thursday are 1-5 ATS in their following game.
17. Cincinnati Bengals (1-3) – The home team is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings, and the Bengals have actually had Baltimore’s number over the last few years -- they are 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams. The market doesn’t have a lot of confidence in a Bengals resurgence, though, as over 70 percent of the action in this week’s game is coming down against Cincinnati.
18. Indianapolis Colts (2-2) – I’m not buying the Joe Flacco hype. You shouldn’t either. Last year’s situation in Cleveland was completely different than this year’s. But even with a dominating defense and a lot of magic, Flacco still threw 10 interceptions in six games last year and should’ve thrown about eight more. If he has to play for any extended period, then this team is in major trouble.
19. New York Jets (2-2) – “Cadence issues.” LOL. The Jets offensive line allowed five sacks, took several false starts, and the offense had 10 penalties. That was only the fifth time in his career that Aaron Rodgers played a game and his offense failed to generate a touchdown. Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson look like they have regressed, and the suddenly fantastic defense still isn’t going to be enough to get this team over the hump.
20. Las Vegas Raiders (2-2) – Well, maybe Antonio Pierce did know what he was doing last week when he called out his squad. The Raiders scored a gut-check win (even if it was just against the Browns) without Maxx Crosby and Devante Adams. The Raiders were the least penalized team in the NFL last season (4.4 per game) and are No. 2 this year (4.3). Pierce should get credit for that as well.
21. Chicago Bears (2-2) – The Bears were mocked for drafting a punter in the fourth of last April’s draft. Rookie Tory Taylor earned his paycheck last week, though, with three punts that traveled over 60 yards and three punts that were downed inside the Rams 8-yard-line. Two of those pins came in the last eight minutes of the game and were crucial to the Bears holding on for a much-needed home win.
22. Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) – I think the Chargers are one of the teams that will benefit from the early season bye week. Getting Justin Herbert healthy is paramount to this team being competitive. They also have a new coaching staff, and this gives everyone a chance to regroup after what has been a surprisingly strong opening month.
23. Arizona Cardinals (1-3) – Arizona has not been competitive with the 49ers the last two seasons. The Cardinals are 0-4 SU and ATS in those games, losing by an aggregate score of 156-68 and an average score of 39-17.
24. Los Angeles Rams (1-3) – These guys just can’t get off the field. They are allowing 50 percent third down conversions, and they just don’t have enough guys that can make high-end plays. The Rams have gotten bulldozed for 165.5 rushing yards per game, last in the league.
25. Denver Broncos (2-2) – A friend of mine texted during the Denver-New York game that Bo Nix “looks like a little kid trying to throw an adult-sized football”. The Broncos are No. 31 in the league in third down conversions this year, coming through on just 24.6 percent of their attempts.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) – Jacksonville’s first drive of the second half kind of summed up their season. Big pass play. Trevor Lawrence missing what should’ve been an easy 60-yard TD throw. Lawrence air-mailing a wide-open receiver. Another big pass play on 3rd-and-10 and brilliant catch by Brian Thomas – followed by a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. Stuffed run. Dropped pass. Penalty. Incompletion. Punt. I don’t know who is going to take the fall for this mess, but there is plenty of blame to go around.
27. Cleveland Browns (1-3) – Another offensive line starter went down for the Browns last week. And until they get back starting tackles Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills – who will likely be rusty when they final do come back from injury – the Cleveland offense won’t be any better than the mess it is now. Cleveland has yet to score over 18 points in a game, and they are 1-5 SU and ATS with an average of 16 points per game in their last six games overall.
28. Tennessee Titans (1-3) – I’m happy for the Titans for getting a win and everything. But let’s not pretend that they were very many positives to take away from that disgusting MNF game against Miami.
29. Miami Dolphins (1-3) – What a mess. What happened to all that ‘offensive innovation’ we saw from the Dolphins the past two seasons? All that pre-snap motion that was the talk of the league is now just leading to illegal motion shifts. And they could barely move the ball even when they were getting blown out in the fourth quarter and the Titans were playing prevent defense. The Dolphins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
30. New York Giants (1-3) – The Giants have actually travelled relatively well over the last three years under Brian Daboll. New York should’ve beaten Washington on the road in Week 2 if not for their kicker debacle. Still, they are 12-7 ATS in their last 19 road games and they are catching Seattle in a brutal letdown spot after their MNF thriller in Detroit. The Giants have lost to Seattle 24-3 and 27-13, respectively, each of the past two seasons and are just 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings.
31. Carolina Panthers (1-3) – Andy Dalton has helped stabilize the offense, notching 60 combined points the last two weeks. The Panthers still have all kinds of issues on defense, and it is only going to get worse now that they lost Shaq Thompson for the year. They traded Brian Burns and have seven defensive players on injured reserve, including three starters. And they weren’t that good to begin with.
32. New England Patriots (1-3) – The Patriots are 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against the Dolphins. However, they do get the benefit of playing at home this week and catching the Fins on a short week after their Monday Night Football debacle. The 35.5-point total in this game is the lowest on the board, and I would expect another slog between two offenses that can’t walk and chew gum at the same time right now.
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