NFL Power Rankings Week 4
Don’t let Monday Night Football’s two high-scoring results fool you.
Scoring is still way down in NFL games this year.
Through three weeks, the ‘under’ has gone 29-19 in all NFL games. Over the last two weeks, the ‘under’ is 22-10 (68.8 percent), and I don’t expect to see an eruption of scoring across the league any time soon.
There are plenty of analysts that have tried to break down why scoring is down across the NFL. The proliferation of the Shanahan Offense – which is more about efficiency than big plays – and the comeback of the Cover-2 defense with two deep safeties are two major league-wide trends that have depressed scoring. Pathetic quarterback play (due to lack of proper development) is another culprit.
But whatever the reason, bettors need to adjust, quickly, to the new, lower-scoring NFL.
Since 2020, the highest-scoring year in league history with an average of 49.6 points per game, the league has seen scoring drop every single year. Last season’s 42.6 points per game average was the second-lowest mark since 2010. But so far in 2024, teams are combining for just 42.4 points per game, which would be the lowest number since 2006.
For all the rules meant to goose scoring, right now the NFL is in a drought.
At some point, the sportsbooks will overadjust the totals and there will be some value for ‘over’ bettors. We aren’t there yet, though. And for the moment everyone should be pounding the ‘under’ in any and every NFL game until teams show a surge in competence.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) – I will never understand how Rashee Rice avoided punishment from the NFL for involvement in a dangerous car crash last March – he is facing eight felony charges and up to 35 years of jail time – but the Chiefs sure are happy that he did. Rice looked like a superstar on Sunday, hauling in 12 of 14 targets for 110 yards and another touchdown.
2. Buffalo Bills (3-0) – Monday night was another testament to the genius of Joe Brady, who I have praised often in this space. Buffalo had done a fantastic job of establishing a power running game in the first two weeks of the season. Rather than force that issue against a stout Jaguars front seven, Brady instead went pass-heavy against an overwhelmed Jaguars secondary. The result was five touchdowns in five possessions and a first half knockout on MNF.
3. Detroit Lions (2-1) – Jared Goff almost had five interceptions against Tampa Bay, finishing with two. Goff had another on Sunday (his fourth in three games) and also had a pick-six called back thanks to a ridiculous call from the referees, who falsely claimed that the clock had hit the two-minute warning prior to the snap. Goff is getting way, way too loose with the ball. (Gotta love the hook-and-ladder, but the way.)
4. Houston Texans (2-1) – On Sunday morning, I must’ve heard four different people point out that C.J. Stroud hadn’t thrown an interception in eight games and that he had the longest streak of passes without an INT in the NFL. Was there any doubt that he was throwing multiple picks in Minnesota?
5. Baltimore Ravens (1-2) – Watching Derrick Henry stiff-arm Caelen Carson into oblivion on a 29-yard rush on Sunday was fun. I still think Henry’s breakout (25 rushes for 151 yards) is going to be the exception rather than the expectation. The last time the Ravens hosted Buffalo, they blew a 20-3 lead in a 23-20 loss in 2022. The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.
6. New Orleans Saints (2-1) – The Saints-Falcons is one of the best, most heated rivalries in the NFL. I live in Atlanta, and I can tell you: the hatred between these two cities is real. New Orleans is 4-1 straight up in the last five meetings with the Falcons, and the Saints have won seven of the last nine between these teams.
7. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) – I was buying Eagles stock heading into the season. Not anymore. Might be time to sell high with this group. There is simply too much questionable decision making by both the head coach and quarterback. Sirianni’s “aggressiveness” looks more and more like stupidity. His decision to pass on two easy field goals – in a game where points were at a premium – was ridiculous. But his choice to opt for a 60-yard field goal late in the fourth quarter of a game they were leading 7-6 was jaw-dropping. Hurts has 26 touchdowns and 26 turnovers in 21 games without Shane Steichen.
8. Green Bay Packers (2-1) – The fact that the Packers are 2.5-point favorites this week over the undefeated Vikings – just one week after being underdogs against the winless, Will Levis-led Titans – tells me that the sportsbooks are expecting the return of Jordan Love this week.
9. Seattle Seahawks (3-0) – I know that this spot in the rankings may suggest otherwise, but I am not 100 percent bought into the Seahawks, and you shouldn’t be either. Seattle has played three bad teams to start the year. Neither the Broncos, Patriots nor Dolphins are going to the playoffs. So, let’s take a beat on crowning this team. Seattle has beaten the Lions three times in the last two years (dating back to the Jan. 2022 playoffs), and they are 6-0 SU And 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
10. Minnesota Vikings (3-0) – The road team is 5-4 SU in the last nine meetings between the Vikings and Packers. The underdog is 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
11. San Francisco 49ers (1-2) – My 8-Unit NFL Futures Play this year was on the 49ers ‘under’ 11.5 wins. The road losses against the Vikings and Rams the past two weeks are like found money. I saw them losing one of the two, but not both. The skill position injuries make this an entirely different team. And even when guys like Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle come back, I wouldn’t expect them to instantly return to their Pro Bowl level.
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) – There is no doubt that Bucky Irving is better than Rachaad White. Maybe he has an issue with pass blocking. But if the Bucs are going to run the ball to take pressure off Baker Mayfield, then they need to get the ball to Irving 15-20 times per game. He looks like a potential game breaker.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0) – I have never subscribed to the philosophy that “you can’t lose your job to injury”. That’s nonsense. If your replacement comes in and plays well, then you ride the hot hand and the momentum. The Steelers should stay with Justin Fields, who has been able to minimize mistakes while also making a few high-end throws. Sunday will be the third straight year the Steelers have traveled to Indianapolis, winning 24-17 in 2022 and getting wrecked 30-13 last December.
14. Atlanta Falcons (1-2) – Look, I’m with everyone else: how the hell was that not pass interference? The officials were bad all night on Sunday, and the Falcons can’t let the frustration from that late, potentially game-changing no-call carry over into this week. Atlanta has a potentially season-defining five-day stretch against NFC South rivals New Orleans (Sunday) and Tampa Bay (Thursday). Be sure to check on the status of center Drew Dalman and tackle Kaleb McGary this week.
15. Dallas Cowboys (1-2) – If you don’t currently subscribe to Doc’s Sports Weekly Newsletter you need to do so immediately. It’s packed with info and free picks, and over the last three years I am a ridiculous 95-51 (65.1%) with my free newsletter plays. Well, before the start of the NFL season I released a free pick on Dallas ‘under’ 9.5 wins this year with a full reasoning of why. The implosion is beginning. Don’t be fooled by a Thursday blowout of the Giants, a team they are 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS against since 2017. This team is a mess and will be a money-burner all season.
16. Arizona Cardinals (1-2) – Arizona has outscored its opponents 28-7 in their first three games. They are catching the Commanders at the right time, with Washington coming off an upset win on Monday Night Football. Arizona also has revenge here after a 20-16 loss at Washington last September as a seven-point underdog.
17. Los Angeles Chargers (2-1) – The eight-point spread in this week’s Chiefs-Chargers game kind of tells you all you need to know about Justin Herbert’s status. I am still just dumbfounded by L.A.’s offensive playcalling in the second half of last week’s game. They had a 10-7 lead, and they knew Herbert’s ankle was sore. But their first four plays out of halftime were all passes. What did they think was going to happen?
18. New York Jets (2-1) – Sorry, but I’m not jumping back on the Jets bandwagon based solely on wins against overmatched Titans and Patriots teams. This week will be the fifth straight year that the Jets have taken on the Broncos. New York won 31-21 in Denver last year and 16-9 in Mile High in 2022.
19. Cincinnati Bengals (0-3) – This still feels too high for these idiots. As I mentioned two weeks ago, there is no way that there is a positive vibe in this locker room right now. The Bengals have been one of the worst-run organizations in professional sports for nearly a half-century. This year’s sloppy start seems like par for the course. The Bengals are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games against teams from the NFC.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) – Oh man, who saw this coming with Trevor Lawrence? I did. I saw it coming. I never bought into Lawrence as a franchise quarterback. And watching teams like the Bengals, Browns, Raiders, Bears, Panthers, and Jaguars flounder just goes to show that the NFL is not as egalitarian as it seems. These same loser franchises are losers every year. There is a reason for that.
21. Cleveland Browns (1-2) – The Browns are averaging 3.8 yards per play, the second-worst mark in the NFL and the franchise's third worst through the first three games of a season since returning to Cleveland in 1999. The team's 18.6% third-down conversion rate is last in the league and Cleveland’s lowest mark through three games since 1999.
22. Los Angeles Rams (1-2) – The Rams were outgained by 160 yards in their fluke win over the 49ers last week. They still have seven of their Top 10 players on injured reserve, and I wouldn’t expect this team to be able to build off their upset of San Francisco moving forward this week. The fact that the sportsbooks have the Rams posted as underdogs against the pathetic Bears tells you all you need to know about this group.
23. Miami Dolphins (1-2) – Tim Boyle has made $7.6 million dollars in his six-year NFL career. Just think about that. Life is not fair.
24. Indianapolis Colts (1-2) – I know that it is way early in his career, but I’m going to call it: Anthony Richardson is awful. His ceiling is a worse, more brittle Cam Newton. Watching Richardson airmail wide open receivers each week is going to be a source of joy for years to come. His accuracy and his decision-making are years away from being NFL-caliber. The Colts are 1-8 SU dating back to 2010 against the Steelers, with the lone win coming last season.
25. Las Vegas Raiders (1-2) – Antonio Pierce is showing why you might not want to hire the interim head coach. His dumbfounding decision to punt late in the fourth quarter of their Week 1 loss to the Chargers was a low point. But his overreaction to the Raiders’ loss to Carolina – calling out his players and accusing them of making ‘business decisions’ – was weird and uncalled for. It’s Week 3, and he is already risking losing the locker room. Any good head coach would take responsibility for not having his team ready to play – whether it was the truth or not. This feels like it will be another patently dysfunctional season for this feeble organization.
26. Washington Commanders (2-1) – Yeah, I’m not going to get too excited about this group. They beat the Bengals and Giants, two other loser teams/franchises. It is nice to see Jayden Daniels playing well and seeing Dan Quinn have a positive impact in his first year. This roster is still feeble, though, and I’ve seen enough from Kliff Kingsbury offenses to know that Monday was a fluke. Washington is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games following a win.
27. Denver Broncos (1-2) – It is tough to argue with Denver’s strategy after a 26-7 win at Tampa Bay on Sunday. However, it was odd that Denver had a 15-4 pass-to-run ratio for the first 20 minutes of the second half of a game in which they held a 23-7 lead. Denver finally closed the game with eight running plays in their last nine snaps, but I feel like they could’ve salted this one away earlier with some better game management on a day when they averaged 4.9 yards per rush.
28. Chicago Bears (1-2) – It’s sad that a season that started with so much promise has gone sideways so quickly. Bears fans are already in the familiar place of rooting for losses to A) increase their draft position so they can fix glaring weakness (the offensive line) and B) ensure that an inept coaching staff gets replaced in the offseason. Asking a rookie quarterback to throw the ball 52 times (against just 28 running plays) against the league’s worst rush defense is unconscionable.
29. Tennessee Titans (0-3) – I’m not here to excuse Will Levis’s comical decision-making. However, we haven’t exactly seen the Bill Callahan effect just yet, have we? Callahan is a well-respected offensive line coach. But through three games, the Titans line has been one of the worst in the league, allowing 15 sacks and 28 hits. The Titans are 7-12 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite, and I am stunned that they are favored again this week after such a dud in Week 3.
30. New York Giants (1-2) – New York’s only win over Dallas since the end of the 2016 season came at home, and three of their four ATS wins in the last 14 meetings came in New York. That said, the Giants’ average loss to the Cowboys in the last 14 matchups overall is by 15.3 points, and their average home loss has come by 17 per game. The Giants lost 40-0 at home in last year’s opener, and they were outscored 89-17 in their two meetings with Dallas last season.
31. New England Patriots (1-2) – Watching Washington whitewash Cincinnati on Monday takes some of the shine off New England’s win over the Bengals in Week 1. The Patriots started the season strong. But the reality of their roster is starting to catch up with them, and I’ll be stunned if they win more than two of their next seven games. In a schedule quirk, this week’s trip to face the 49ers will be just the second time that the Patriots have played in San Francisco in the last 15 years.
32. Carolina Panthers (1-2) – How many times have we seen a team rally around a backup quarterback called into action? Good for Andy Dalton and the Panthers that they were able to get that first win on the board. Carolina is still 25-61 SU since the start of the 2019 season and they are 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.
Robert Ferringo has been one of the best football handicappers in the country and for a full decade from 2010-2019 he banked over +$40,000 in football profit. Robert has produced five of seven winning seasons and 9 of 13 profitable years. Robert expects a MONSTER football season. Robert is looking for another winning football year and wants more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!
Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.