NFL Power Rankings Week 3
I’m going to continue to do this every year. I’m not going to do it as of way of patting myself on the back or showing how smart I am. I’m going to keep bringing this topic up until enough people see it and slowly but surely the general public consensus on NFL rookie quarterbacks changes.
I have been talking about it for a decade, and I wrote about this very issue last season. Bottom line: starting a rookie quarterback is a terrible idea.
I’m not going to re-litigate my position here. If you want to see what I think, read the article. What I am going to point out is that we are two weeks into the 2024 NFL season, and the three rookie quarterbacks have combined to toss zero touchdowns, throw six interceptions, and have all taken enough hits that fans and media are already starting to question them.
On top of that, two of last year’s rookie starters, Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson, are a combined 0-4 straight up. Young has been benched and is already being called a bust just 13 months into his career. Richardson looks like an erratic mess. A third 2023 draft pick, Will Levis, is doing his best Mark Sanchez impression and is about two more dumbfounding turnovers away from being benched.
The Chicago Bears look like they are doing the worst job of the three teams dumb enough to start a first-year signal caller. Caleb Williams has taken 10 sacks and 16 hits through two games. He looks lost and is averaging just 99 passing yards per game.
This is how rookie quarterbacks get ruined. This is how they get injured. This is how they develop happy feet and bad habits. This is not how young QBs should be developed.
This is also why last January I made a pretty clear, coherent argument for why Chicago should’ve kept Justin Fields (whom they gave away for peanuts) and protected Williams by letting him sit and learn.
(Fields, by the way is 2-0 with the Steelers.)
It shouldn’t be surprising that just about every quarterback that has been drafted since 2021 and forced into action prematurely is struggling. (The outliers are C.J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence and Brock Purdy.) It’s a list that includes Williams, Bo Nix, Jayden Daniels, Young, Richardson, Levis, Kenny Picket, Desmond Ridder, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Fields and Mac Jones.
It also shouldn’t be surprising that while those young arms flounder, several veterans are enjoying career resurgences. Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, Derek Carr, and Sam Darnold are all undefeated. All four of them were former high draft picks that were forced into action too early, stumbled, and then were cast off or left for dead.
Is it surprising to anyone that these players are better now that they are more mature and experienced? Does it strike anyone as a bad idea to foist the weight of an entire NFL franchise on a 22- or 23-year-old kid? And is it surprising that a little time and patience could pay dividends for guys like Mayfield and Darnold, who were raw and immature when they came into the league?
Part of the reason that the NFL is so erratic is because quarterback play is so inconsistent. That is the direct result of the inherent stupidity of the current development model of NFL quarterbacks.
It’s pretty simple: young quarterbacks should sit their first two years. While they learn which end is up, teams will be more consistent and more competitive with a veteran under center – winning games and showing the young guy the ropes. Until supposedly intelligent NFL front office people realize this the league is going to continue to be the meat grinder that it has been for young signal callers.
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Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) – This team is just 30-39 against the spread since the start of the 2020 season. They are the best team in the NFL. But they are obviously not a dominating one (at least not during the regular season). Add their inflated spreads to their breezy attitude toward the regular season, and this team is an unreliable option for bettors.
2. San Francisco 49ers (1-1) – The 49ers should be able to bounce back this week against the Rams. San Francisco has dominated this series, going 9-2 straight and 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
3. Detroit Lions (1-1) – I have been saying it all offseason: at a certain point the sportsbooks (and a bit of reality) are going to catch up with the Lions. They can’t possibly continue their tremendous ATS success. It doesn’t mean that this still isn’t one of the top teams in the NFL, though. And Aiden Hutchinson’s six sacks in two games puts him on pace to crack 30 for the year.
4. New Orleans Saints (2-0) – Anyone that has read these power rankings know that I avoid wild swings and overreactions. That means this massive jump from the Saints – from 20 to 4 – is completely out of character for me. But it is also completely warranted. The Saints scored on their first nine possessions against Carolina in Week 1 and then went 6-for-6, with six touchdowns, in their first six possessions against the Cowboys. They are an absolute buzzsaw right now, and it does not look fluky. Their spread for this week’s game with Philadelphia has swung 5.5 points since Sunday.
5. Buffalo Bills (2-0) – I felt like Buffalo’s win over Miami was more about the Dolphins imploding than it was anything the Bills were doing. That doesn’t take anything away from Buffalo. They were disciplined and made the plays they were supposed to make. However, 24 of their 31 points were direct results from Miami turnovers, including the pick-six early in the third that basically ended the game.
6. Houston Texans (2-0) – It is unbelievable that Houston didn’t cover the spread in their dominating win over Chicago on Sunday. The Texans look the part of an up-and-coming AFC contender. They are going to have to learn that part of being in the top tier is being able to knock out lightweights.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0) – The Bucs still can’t run the ball. They are No. 24 in rushing offense, and Rachaad White is averaging just 2.0 yards per carry through two games after being held to 3.6 last year. At some point, the Bucs are going to need to find a way to take the pressure off Baker Mayfield, because I don’t think he can hold it together for 17 games without a few turnover-infused blowups.
8. Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) – I’m not going to re-litigate the should-they-or-shouldn’t-they-have passed debate that cost Philly a win on Monday. Instead, I think the longer-term issue is how many times Joe Buck said, “No pressure” when talking about Philadelphia’s pass rush. Former Eagles DC Jim Johnson must’ve been rolling in his grave during that final Falcons drive.
9. Dallas Cowboys (1-1) – I’m no Cowboys apologist. However, I have to say watching every snap of their blowout loss to the Saints, my takeaway was less about anything Dallas did wrong and more about the fact that New Orleans just looked dominant. Offensively, Dallas looked fine. And you have to think their defense – which smothered the Browns in Week 1 – will rebound this week.
10. Baltimore Ravens (0-2) – I’m not giving up on this team, but there are reasons to be concerned beyond just being winless through two games. They are struggling in the red zone on both offense and defense, the offensive line has been creaky, and they aren’t generating turnovers. Losing to Kansas City on the road, you shrug. But losing at home to the Raiders is a red flag. Lamar Jackson is 20-3 SU in his career against NFC opponents.
11. Atlanta Falcons (1-1) – Kirk Cousins is getting all the plaudits today for his icy game-winning drive. And deservedly so. But Atlanta wouldn’t have even been in position for the win without the incredible running of Bijan Robinson (14 carries, 97 yards).
12. Green Bay Packers (1-1) – Credit where credit is due. Green Bay went old school, smashmouth football against the wet-paper-soft Colts last week and were able to grind out a win. Let’s not pretend that’s owning a 40:11-19:49 time of possession advantage every week is a viable long-term strategy, though. And the Packers may find running on the Titans defense a tougher task this week.
13. Seattle Seahawks (2-0) – Is anyone else worried that Seattle’s isn’t exactly taking to Mike McDonald’s defensive schemes? Yes, Seattle is No. 2 in the NFL in passing defense and No. 6 in total defense. Yet, they have allowed 20 points in back-to-back games to Bo Nix and Jacoby Brissett. The front seven looks a little flimsy – and is getting banged up – and I’m curious to see how the secondary handles Miami’s attack this week.
14. Minnesota Vikings (2-0) – Sam Darnold has been a pleasant surprise through two weeks. He is about to face a lot of heat from a Houston defense that will blitz more than the Giants and 49ers did. Darnold has thrown an interception in each of his first two games and now has 58 picks in 58 games for his career.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0) – The Steelers should get a boost from their first home game of the season. However, Pittsburgh is 1-5 straight up and 0-6 ATS in its last six home openers. I also don’t know how I feel about laying out points with Justin Fields vs. Justin Herbert.
16. Miami Dolphins (1-1) – If Tua isn’t self-interested and self-protective enough to know when to slide, then I agree that with his concussion history he shouldn’t be playing quarterback in the NFL. There are times when selfishness can be a benefit. Just ask my daughter.
17. Arizona Cardinals (1-1) – The Rams are a mess. Let’s see Arizona step up in class and beat a Top 10 team and then I’ll buy in. Oh look! They have a chance to do exactly that this week against the Lions. Arizona hasn’t beaten the Lions since 2015, but the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series.
18. Los Angeles Chargers (2-0) – I’m still not going all in on the Chargers as some Super Bowl sleepers. Let’s not get carried away. They beat the Raiders (barely) and the Panthers. So let’s slow down. I do like that by leaning heavy on the running game they are keeping Justin Herbert in reserve, like a trump card, rather than leading with him. Back-to-back trips east for early starts is going to be tough on this team, and I’m looking for Herbert to have to finally do something this week if they want to leave Pittsburgh with an upset win.
19. Cleveland Browns (1-1) – I’m still skeptical that Cleveland will get either Jed Wills or Jack Conklin back this week. The only NFL-caliber position group the Giants have is their defensive line. It will be hard for the Browns offense – which has managed just 263.5 yards and 17.5 per game in their first two – to get enough separation from the Giants to cover an inflated spread.
20. Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) – This is the third time in four years that Cincinnati has started 0-2. (In 2021 they opened 1-1.) The Bengals, backs against the wall, are 4-0 ATS in Week 1 and they are an amazing 19-5 ATS in their next six games after their four weak starts.
21. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) – This week’s game in Buffalo is a rematch of a game the Jaguars and Bills played in London last year. The Jaguars rolled up 474 yards off offense and went 10-for-18 in that game, which was 11-7 heading into the fourth quarter before both offenses exploded. Jacksonville owned a 196-29 rushing advantage in that game, and I just don’t see that happening again.
22. Indianapolis Colts (0-2) – Dating back to 2002, only two of 103 teams that started the season 0-3 rebounded to make the playoffs. That makes this week’s game a last stand. This year’s Colts are starting to look more like the team I expected them to be last year, when I felt they had the worst roster in the league. The Colts are also dealing with cluster injury issue on their defensive line with DeForest Buckner and Laiatu Latu going down on Sunday.
23. New York Jets (1-1) – I think the best way to describe the structure of this offense is juvenile. These guys look like they are running plays from an old playbook they found from 1998. And their defense doesn’t look like the allegedly dominant group that it has been the past two seasons. We will see if this group will get a boost from playing in front of the home crowd for the first time.
24. Los Angeles Rams (0-2) – Injuries are part of the game. And the Rams look like they are packing a bottom-five roster heading into Week 3. I give Matt Stafford maybe three more weeks behind that piecemeal offensive line before he takes the hit that puts him out of commission and basically ends L.A.’s season.
25. Chicago Bears (1-1) – This mess of an offense is dead last in the NFL in passing offense, averaging a comical 99 yards per game. And that would be perfectly fine if they were running the ball at all. Instead, DeAndre Swift has 24 carries for 38 yards and Caleb Williams, with 59 yards in two games, is their leading runner. This offensive line is simply not capable of getting Chicago over .500.
26. Las Vegas Raiders (1-1) – I like that the Raiders aren’t beating around the bush with their offense. They are force feeding the ball to their best players. Devante Adams and Brock Bowers have combined for 35 targets on Gardner Minshew’s 71 attempts and have made the biggest plays in the team’s two games. The Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games but just 10-13 ATS in their last 23 games as a favorite.
27. Tennessee Titans (0-2) – The Titans are going to get a crack at former bust Malik Willis this week when Willis comes back to Nashville as Green Bay’s starting quarterback. The Willis vs. Will Levis matchup has to be one of the least-inspiring of the weekend, and it is a bit of a red flag that the 0-2 Titans are three-point favorites in this matchup.
28. Washington Commanders (1-1) – The Commanders are 10-6 ATS in their last 16 road games. Offensively, this team looks much more organized than last year’s group. The problem is that they may have the worst defense in the league. In 15 drives, Washington’s defense has allowed seven touchdowns and three field goals while forcing just one three-and-out and one turnover. And those numbers may be worse if the Giants brought a kicker last week.
29. Denver Broncos (0-2) – Much like the Bears, Denver’s offensive line and running game are doing absolutely nothing to help their rookie quarterback. Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin have combined for 73 yards on 32 carries and, just like Chicago and Williams, Nix is the team’s leading rusher. The Broncos are 4-8-1 ATS in their last 13 road games.
30. New England Patriots (1-1) – I know that this is a completely different regime, but there is no ignoring New England’s long-term dominance over the Jets. The Patriots are 23-3 SU in the last 26 meetings and 11-4 ATS in the last 15 games against New York.
31. New York Giants (0-2) – The Giants became just the second team ever to lose despite scoring three touchdowns on offense and not allowing any touchdowns on defense. It’s not Daniel Jones’ fault, that’s for sure, and it is tough to see them not getting overwhelmed by Cleveland’s defense this week.
32. Carolina Panthers (0-2) – This team was at least competitive last season. They were sneaky-good defensively and stayed within 10 points of their opponents in 10 of their 17 games. Carolina has been outscored 73-13 in Dave Canales first two games and hasn’t shown baseline competence to this point. That’s not all on Bryce Young. And if you’re expecting Andy Dalton to give this team a jolt, you are overestimating the 37-year-old signal caller.
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