NFL Power Rankings Week 18
So, last week I warned you against getting conned into betting on NFL teams that were in “must-win” situations.
Cleveland, San Francisco, Jacksonville and Houston all came through with games that they absolutely had to have. However, the Cowboys, Rams, Colts, Eagles, Bucs, Falcons, Bills and Bengals all flopped against the spread in games that they absolutely had to have for one reason or another.
Welcome to late-season NFL betting.
Now we head into Week 18, the weirdest and most frustrating week of betting in the NFL season. Every year I have the same advice for bettors heading into the final week of the regular season: tread lightly.
Over my career, I have seen more than a few gamblers flush a season’s worth of profit down the toilet by overexposing themselves in the final week. Sure, there is some value on the board this week. But there are also plenty of landmines.
Week 18 in the NFL is like betting the final week of the NFL preseason. There simply isn’t enough reliable information about who is going to play, or for how long. Motivation, an essential element for handicapping, is tough to read. The majority of teams lining up this week are out of playoff contention. And some of the most difficult games to handicap this weekend involve games that have teams looking ahead to next week’s postseason.
Again: it’s a minefield. So, remember that sometimes the best bets are the ones that you don’t make.
Consider yourself warned.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Baltimore Ravens (13-3) – The Ravens can’t sit everyone. Just because Lamar Jackson won’t be suiting up don’t think for a second these guys won’t be competitive in their final game. They still remember 2019 vividly. The Ravens also know they have a chance to knock rival Pittsburgh out of the postseason in a series that has been decided by a touchdown or less in 14 of the last 17 meetings.
2. San Francisco 49ers (12-4) – San Francisco has too many talented players. They simply can’t sit everyone this week against the Rams. The 49ers also know that they have a bye next week by virtue of having the No. 1 seed. I think they are going to be much more likely to play key guys and play to win this week than the Rams will be.
3. Buffalo Bills (10-6) – Get hot, stay hot. If the Bills win this week – and they are favored in South Beach in their AFC East title game against the Dolphins – they will lock up the No. 2 seed, a home game in the playoffs, and a chance to floss their teeth with whatever schlub team comes out of the AFC South.
4. Detroit Lions (11-5) – Yes, the Lions absolutely got screwed in that loss to the Cowboys. And I love the fact that they shot their shot and went all-out to win that game and try to get the No. 1 seed in the NFC. However, I wonder if they are going to regret showing some of the things (the fake punt, the two-point conversion trick) that they did in that game rather than saving their cards to play in the postseason.
5. Dallas Cowboys (11-5) – Wow, CeeDee Lamb. This guy rarely gets mentioned as the top receiver in football. But a clutch effort like he had last year – and that guy won a lot of people across the country a lot of money in fantasy league championship games – should throw Lamb to the top of that discussion.
6. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) – “Frustration” is the word that you keep hearing coming out of the Eagles locker room. You can see it and feel it up and down this roster. And that frustration is casting a pall in this locker room. The Eagles are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
7. Miami Dolphins (11-5) – Ouch. A loss like that has to linger. Miami didn’t just get humiliated in what was supposed to be a statement game for the Dolphins, they also got physically abused. The loss of Bradley Chubb is serious. And the status of Tua, Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle all bear watching this week.
8. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) – Keep forcing the ball to Rashee Rice. The rookie actually diagnosed a broken coverage by the Bengals pre-snap last week, adjusted his route, and landed a 67-yard play that gave the Chiefs a big boost. This kid is legit. And he’s logged 43 catches and 518 yards over his last six games and has emerged as the best of a lot of mediocre options in the passing game.
9. Cleveland Browns (11-5) – Heading into last week, one of the big questions was whether or not the Lions would have a letdown after clinching their first postseason berth in 29 years. They didn’t, and they should’ve beat the Cowboys on the road. I could ask the same question about the Browns this week. Will there be a letdown? Cleveland is actually 8-2 SU in its last 10 games against the Bengals. And even though they are resting some key players, I think this team may still play to win.
10. Los Angeles Rams (9-7) – Neither the Rams nor the 49ers have anything to play for this week. Both teams have clinched postseason berths and both are likely to rest their starters. With the Rams playing next week (the 49ers will have two weeks off), and San Francisco boasting more depth, I think there’s a decent chance that Los Angeles gets lit up this week as they prepare for a potential trip to Detroit in a wild card game that would be a barn burner.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) – It bears mentioning again that 14 of 17 games between the Steelers and Ravens have been determined by one score. What you may not realize, though, is that Pittsburgh has really dominated their rivals, going 10-4 SU in their last 14 meetings. The favorite is 0-13 ATS in the last 13 games in this series.
12. Seattle Seahawks (8-8) – Keep an eye on the spread in the Seahawks-Cardinals game this week. I was a little surprised that Seattle was posted as a full three-point favorite. Of course, the public is going to be all over Seattle because they have the better record and are in a ‘must-win’ situation. But if that number moves to 2.5 before kickoff, that is a giant red flag that the sharps are throwing in with the home team.
13. Green Bay Packers (8-8) – This matchup with Chicago in Week 18 is interesting because these two teams met in the season opener in Soldier Field. That makes this the perfect measuring stick of how far both teams have come. Green Bay dominated in a 38-20 win, and the Packers have beaten their rivals nine straight times both SU and ATS.
14. Indianapolis Colts (9-7) – There are a lot of worthwhile options for Coach of the Year. I haven’t heard Shane Steichen mentioned nearly often enough. I had the Colts as one of worst three rosters in the league heading into the season. Now they have a home game that is win-and-in for the playoffs.
15. Houston Texans (9-7) – I am a bit surprised to see the early money lean so heavily to Houston. The line lurched from Houston +1 to the Texans -1.5 because of sharp early action on the visitor. Houston is just 2-7-1 in their last 10 games Indianapolis and 6-16-1 in the last 23. They have won in Indy just once since 2018.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7) – It looks like the Jaguars will be getting Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones back for this week’s must-win game in Tennessee. That’s great. But none of the three will be 100 percent, and you still have to wonder how effective any of them will be.
17. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) – This is another Week 18 spread that jumped out at me. The Bengals were just eliminated from the postseason after a grueling loss at Kansas City. This team was in the Super Bowl two years ago and the AFC Championship Game last year. How motivated are they going to get for a meaningless Week 18 game? Especially with Tee Higgins and Jamar Chase banged up and unlikely to play?
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) – Remember what I said last week about teams in ‘must-win’ situations? It fits perfectly here with Tampa Bay. Sure, maybe they paste Carolina on the road this week. But here’s what I know: nearly 80 percent of the early action in this must-win game for the Bucs is coming in on Tampa Bay – and the spread hasn’t moved an inch. That’s a bit of a red flag.
19. New Orleans Saints (8-8) – When Derek Carr plays poorly, everyone and their sister is lining up to throw dirt on his grave and spit on his name. Over the last month? Crickets. Carr has been outstanding down the stretch, completing 73 percent of his last 126 passes with 10 touchdowns and just two turnovers. He’s done so with a skeleton receiving corps and dragged this team to the verge of the playoffs.
20. Chicago Bears (7-9) – I think Chicago’s quarterback dilemma is simple. Draft Caleb Williams. You have to. You can’t miss on Patrick Mahomes for Mitch Trubisky and then risk missing on another generational talent. Draft Williams and let him sit (like Kansas City did with Mahomes) in his rookie season. Roll with Fields for another season. Chicago can pick up his fifth-year option and have Fields for two more seasons. If Fields excels next year, then they have trade options. If not, they have his replacement. Has any team ever had the problem of having too much quarterback talent? If Chicago doesn’t do that, they are idiots.
21. Minnesota Vikings (7-9) – That’s now three straight losses, and L’s in five of their last six games, as this team has completely collapsed without Kirk Cousins. Four of the five losses have been by six points or less, including their 30-24 loss to the Lions just two weeks ago that was decided by an interception at the goal line in the final minute.
22. Atlanta Falcons (7-9) – Unfortunately for Falcons fans, I expect Arthur Smith to be back in 2024. After getting the Falcons to overachieve significantly in 2021 and 2022, Smith’s Falcons have to be considered the biggest underachievers and largest disappointment in the NFL. They looked lost and got pushed around in Chicago last week, and I don’t expect their road woes to get solved this weekend in New Orleans against a hated rival.
23. Denver Broncos (8-8) – Denver has lost seven straight games to the Raiders and are a pathetic 1-9 SU and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against their biggest rivals. The underdog is 8-2 ATS in this series, though, and the nothing-to-play-for Broncos are the ones getting the points this time.
24. Las Vegas Raiders (7-9) – Absolutely brutal beat for Colts backers last week. The Raiders scored on 4th-and-goal from the 1-yard line with 43 seconds left last Sunday to sneak in the backdoor in Indianapolis. I don’t like the long-term value of buying half-points on NFL spreads. Beats like that always make me reconsider my opinion, though.
25. Tennessee Titans (5-11) – Will Levis is listed as questionable for this Sunday’s game against Jacksonville. There are zero reasons why he should play in this game. The Titans should absolutely go with veteran Ryan Tannehill, who is likely playing his last game for Tennessee. He should be given a proper send-off. And I don’t expect Mike Vrabel to roll over against the Jaguars this week with an opportunity to knock their division rivals out of the playoffs.
26. New York Giants (5-11) – The Giants managed to sneak in the backdoor as 14-point favorites in a 33-25 loss at Philadelphia just two weeks ago. They were down 20-3 at halftime in that game, though. New York is on a 5-1 ATS run to close the season. They are taking most of the action this week against the Eagles, and the line is starting to come down. Something about this setup stinks.
27. Arizona Cardinals (4-12) – Underdogs have crushed in NFC West divisional matchups over the last several years. And the dog has been the play in this series with Seattle. The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. And the Cardinals should be motivated to snap a four-game losing streak to the Seahawks.
28. New York Jets (6-10) – Wasn’t New York’s defense supposed to be the foundation this team was built on? They have allowed 95 points over their last three games and have gotten torched for 30 or more in five of their last seven. The Jets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games and have lost by an average score of 23.3-13.8 during that slide.
29. Washington Commanders (4-12) – That is now seven straight losses and this week is Ron Rivera’s swan song in Washington. I know it is crazy, but I’m expecting Washington to be game in their effort against Dallas. This is a monster rivalry. And the Commanders should be a little salty after getting humiliated in Dallas on Thanksgiving (45-10).
30. New England Patriots (4-12) – Ask yourself this: if this is Bill Belichick’s final game as the head coach of the New England Patriots, do you really see him losing at home to the Jets? Me neither.
31. Los Angeles Chargers (5-11) – I know Kansas City doesn’t have anything to play for. I’m still shocked to see the Chargers posted as the favorites in this week’s game against the Chiefs. The Chargers quit three weeks ago against the Raiders. Why would we expect them to show up to play in a game that is more meaningless for them than it is for Kansas City?
32. Carolina Panthers (2-14) – Throw out the record. Ignore last week’s shutout. Carolina has a chance to end a crappy season on a positive note if they can spring an upset on Tampa Bay and end the Bucs’ season. Carolina is just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against Tampa Bay. And Carolina has been held to 18 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 games. They’ve been more competitive at home, though, going 3-2 ATS in their last five home games, and this defense might have one more solid effort in it.
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