NFL Power Rankings Week 17
Merry Christmas!
It’s a big holiday week (mazel tov to those celebrating Hanukkah and “cool” to those celebrating Kwanzaa) so that means time is short. So rather than wasting your time with one of my witty, yet informative, introductions focusing on a trend, trait or zeitgeist of the NFL at the moment, I will let you get to the rankings.
I also wanted to offer a little info from The Company: Doc’s Sports will have limited customer service hours on Wednesday to accommodate the Christmas holiday.
Finally, the best advice I can offer you over the next week is to make sure that DON’T bet on games “just because” or because you want something to cheer for. I know, I know: I’m a Grinch when it comes to that type of stuff. But for me it’s all about money, not entertainment.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) – The Chiefs have bombed the Steelers in each of their last two meetings, winning 42-21 in the playoffs in Jan. 2022 and 36-10 against them just three weeks earlier in Dec. 2021. It looks like the Chiefs will be without Chris Jones this week. However, they are still No. 3 in the NFL in total defense, scoring defense and rushing defense, so I think they’ll be fine without him.
2. Detroit Lions (13-2) – Dan Campbell is now the fourth head coach in NFL history with a 13-win season for the same team he had a 13-loss season for in his first full year as a head coach. The other three are all in the Hall of Fame with multiple Super Bowl wins: Chuck Noll, Bill Walsh and Jimmy Johnson.
3. Buffalo Bills (12-3) – Red flag or simple letdown spot? You be the judge. The Bills were outgained by the Patriots, had eight more penalties, and generally looked worse than New England last week. Buffalo has now allowed an average of 452 yards per game the last three weeks, and I think they are vulnerable against a Jets attack that has some playmakers.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3) – The line on this week’s Cowboys-Eagles game suggests that the sportsbooks are expecting Jalen Hurts back under center. Philly beat the Cowboys 34-6 last month in the first meeting and I’ve noticed that this series hasn’t produced many non-blowouts in recent years. Eleven of the last 16 meetings have been decided by eight points or more, including nine of the last 11 matchups.
5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2) – The NFC North teams have gone a combined 37-22-1 against the spread overall this year, by far the best mark in the NFL. They are 28-13-1 ATS in nondivisional games. The Vikings are 5-3 SU and ATS in their last eight games against Green Bay, and the straight-up winner of this game has covered the spread in 11 straight in this series.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) – Christmas Day will just the second home game that Pittsburgh has played since Nov. 18 and just their third home game since Halloween. Yes, they have lost by double-digits in back-to-back weeks. But both of those losses came on the road, without George Pickens, against other Top 10 teams. I wouldn’t underestimate the boost that this team will get from its home crowd (and from getting Pickens back).
7. Green Bay Packers (11-4) – Jordan Love has really settled down against pressure and that has made a world of difference for the Packers offense. In his first nine games, Love had thrown three touchdowns to six interceptions when facing a blitz. Since then, he has six touchdowns and zero picks against extra pressure. And the Packers are 5-1 SU and ATS in those games, seeing their scoring average jump from 25.6 to 30.5 points per game.
8. Baltimore Ravens (10-5) – The Ravens have been dominating third downs over the last three weeks. They are converting 52.8 percent of their own while holding opponents to just 29.4 percent on the money down. Houston’s offense has been mediocre (No. 16) on third down all season but their defense has been excellent, allowing just a 35.7 percent conversion rate.
9. Washington Commanders (10-5) – How the hell do you win a game in which you commit five turnovers? Teams that had allowed 30 or more points and committed five or more turnovers had a combined 1-158 straight up record since 2003 – prior to Washington stealing a game against the Eagles last Sunday.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7) – The Bucs have been a solid bounce back team under Baker Mayfield’s leadership. Tampa Bay is just 7-7 straight up following a loss, but they have gone an excellent 10-4 ATS following a loss over the past two seasons. That includes a 5-1 ATS mark this year after a defeat.
11. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6) – Quentin Johnston is drifting dangerously close to ‘first round bust’ territory. I don’t like calling it just two years into his tenure, but his drops are becoming ridiculous. He only had a 56.7 percent catch rate and a 7.1 percent drop rate last year – and somehow those numbers have gotten worse this season. Receivers can either catch the ball or they can’t. Johnston can’t.
12. Los Angeles Rams (9-6) – The Rams have posted a 34.1 opponent yards per point over their last two weeks, holding the 49ers and Jets to just 15 combined points. This same defense allowed 42 points to the Bills and 37 to the Eagles, so I wouldn’t count on L.A.’s dominant defense to continue to hold form.
13. Denver Broncos (9-6) – If you play a drinking game where you have to take a drink every time Bo Nix throws a pass within five yards of the line of scrimmage, you will be hammered by halftime. This team’s 9.6 yards per point over its last three games is completely unsustainable.
14. Seattle Seahawks (8-7) – I think Seattle has seen enough of the NFC North. The Seahawks are 0-3 SU and ATS against teams from that division this year after back-to-back losses to the Vikings and Packers. They were blown out at Detroit in Week 4 and Seattle has allowed an average of 33 points per game to teams from the North this year (while scoring an average of 22 PPG).
15. Houston Texans (9-6) – I think it was unrealistic to expect C.J. Stroud to match last year’s performance. Especially regarding turnovers. Stroud has seen his interceptions more than double (5 to 11) in the same number of games and passing attempts this year. Last week was the fourth time Stroud has thrown multiple interceptions in a game. Houston is 0-4 SU and ATS when he throws two or more picks.
16. Miami Dolphins (7-8) – Beware of the must-win teams. This Dolphins-Browns game opened with Miami has a three-point favorite. It has since skyrocketed to 6.5, with around 70 percent of the action coming in on the Dolphins. Must-win teams are in must-win situations because they aren’t very good in the first place. Consider yourself warned.
17. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) – I have absolutely no idea how Joe Burrow wasn’t down on his two-yard touchdown pass to Tee Higgins. I mean, it was a remarkable feat to throw a dart while in a prone position, but his knee was pretty clearly down. Regardless, I have to throw a congrats here to Strike Point Sports for their savvy 8-Unit NFL Game of the Year winner behind Burrow and the Bengals last week.
18. Arizona Cardinals (7-8) – For anyone that doesn’t think that West Coast teams traveling east for 1 p.m. EST start times is a big deal, I submit the first quarter of Arizona’s loss to Carolina last week. The Cardinals had eight penalties for nearly 70 yards in the first 15 minutes of that game. They trailed only 7-0, but by the middle of the second quarter they were down 20-3 and it was clear the Cardinals weren’t ready to play.
19. San Francisco 49ers (6-9) – if you kick out the 38 points that San Francisco scored against feeble Chicago on Dec. 8, the 49ers have averaged just 12 points per game in their last five games and haven’t scored over 17 points once. Their run defense has also been a bit of a mess, and the Niners are getting pounded on the ground. In their last four non-Bears games, San Francisco has faced 148 rushing attempts and allowed 697 yards on the ground. That’s an average of 37 rushes, 174.3 yards and 4.7 yards per rush over the last month.
20. Dallas Cowboys (7-8) – I can’t say enough about how impressed I am with CeeDee Lamb playing through this shoulder injury over the second half of the season. If Lamb makes 15 more receptions over the final two weeks, he will break Michael Thomas’ NFL record for most catches through his first five years in the league. The underdog is just 1-8 ATS in the last nine games in the Eagles-Cowboys series.
21. Atlanta Falcons (8-7) – Let’s slow down on Michael Penix. He was facing one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, he put up a modest stat line, and he had two throws that should’ve been intercepted. He also benefitted from the support of two defensive touchdowns and Bijan Robinson dominating on the ground. I think Penix will be in some trouble this week on the road against a tougher defense.
22. Indianapolis Colts (7-8) – Jonathan Taylor put up 218 yards and three touchdowns on just 29 carries last week. I would expect another heavy workload and monster stat line for Taylor this week. The Giants have allowed the second-most rushing yards in the NFL this year and are No. 30 in the league in yards per carry allowed (4.8).
23. Chicago Bears (4-11) – Caleb Williams was absolutely battling – again – in another blowout loss last week despite losing his starting left tackle and left guard. The Bears punted on their opening drive for the 11th time in 15 games, were held scoreless in the first quarter for the 11th time (four in a row), and the Bears haven’t held a lead since Nov. 24. They haven’t been within a touchdown of their opponent after halftime since Thanksgiving.
24. New York Jets (4-11) – I simply can’t understand how an offense with Garrett Wilson, Devante Adams, Breece Hall and a bunch of nice complimentary pieces can be so sorry. The Jets had averaged 26.5 points per game in the four games prior to last week’s nine-point flop. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in New York’s last six games against the Bills and 7-3 in their last 10 against Buffalo.
25. Carolina Panthers (4-11) – Since Halloween, Carolina is 3-4 SU and 6-1 ATS. They have stayed within six points in games against the Eagles, Bucs and Chiefs. However, they have also played six of their last seven games at home, which has clearly coincided with their hot ATS run. They did play Philly tough on the road on Dec. 8 (22-16 loss). But their other four road losses this year have come by an average of 27.5 points per game, albeit with all coming before their recent surge.
26. New Orleans Saints (4-11) – That Monday night game was bleak.
27. Cleveland Browns (3-12) – Dorian Thompson-Robinson injured his calf last week and is questionable to play this weekend. He shouldn’t. This guy isn’t even a CFL-level quarterback. In 13 games, he has completed 52.8 percent of his passes with one touchdown and nine interceptions. Jameis Winston is a joke. But he at least belongs in this league. The Browns should go back to Winston for these last two games.
28. New England Patriots (3-12) – There is a chance of snow and near-freezing temperatures in New England’s game against the Chargers this week. Generally, you would think that would favor the Patriots against a California team. It won’t. Los Angeles plays a grinding, physical, run-the-ball-and-play-defense style. The cold isn’t going to bother them, so I wouldn’t consider that when handicapping this game.
29. Las Vegas Raiders (3-12) – The Raiders are 4-13 SU and 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games against NFC opponents. That includes a 1-3 SU and ATS mark this year and a 24-0 loss against New Orleans in their last meeting, in 2022.
30. Tennessee Titans (3-12) – My biggest regret of this football season will be that I didn’t bet more – both in terms of number of bets and total money – against this Titans team. Going 3-12 is one thing. But Tennessee is an insane 2-13 ATS this year. That is almost impossible to do in the NFL, where sportsbooks are constantly inflating and adjusting numbers.
31. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) – The Jaguars defense has allowed 8.2 yards per attempt this year. Opposing quarterbacks have tossed 27 touchdowns to just five interceptions and boast a 106.4 passer rating against Jacksonville this year. For context, Joe Burrow’s incredible season has netted him a 108.5 passer rating, and Sam Darnold’s resurgence has produced a 105.4 passer rating. That 106.4 rating would be good for No. 4 in the NFL this year and is better than Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels and Justin Herbert’s ratings this year.
32. New York Giants (2-13) – Drew Lock had an MRI on his shoulder this week, meaning the G-Men may be dusting off recently concussed Tommy DeVito to start this week against the Colts. Tim Boyle is the only other quarterback on the roster. That trio pretty much guarantees that the Giants won’t win another game and will have the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft.
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