NFL Power Rankings Week 16
Remember early in the NFL season when underdogs were a cash cow for pro football bettors?
Yeah, that was a long time ago.
NFL underdogs have covered the number in barely over 47 percent of all NFL games this season. And if you take out the league’s most dominant dog, the Pittsburgh Steelers, then NFL underdogs are beating the number in only 46.7 percent of all games this season. If the season were to end today, then that would be the worst showing for underdog in pro football this decade.
Underdogs haven’t only been bad with the points this year; they’ve just been flat-out bad all around. NFL underdogs have pulled an outright upset in only 66 of the league’s 224 completed games this season, good for a feeble 29.5 percent success rate.
Home underdogs, long touted as the silver bullet in football betting by wannabe sharps, are a putrid 22-65 straight up (25.3 percent) and a jaw-dropping 34-49 against the spread (40.1 percent).
Yes, you are reading that right: road favorites, long considered the “squarest” of NFL wagers, have been hitting at 60 percent this season.
How has this become the norm in NFL betting. The answers to that are a little complicated and overlapping, and I’m not going to give a full dissertation on it now. But I will say that some of it has to do with what I pointed out in this space last week. And that is the fact that the power structure and the tiers in the NFL are as defined and clear-cut as I can ever remember.
The good teams are really good. The bad teams are really bad. And there just isn’t much room in between.
Add in sportsbooks being stingy with the points – due in part to recent historical success of NFL underdogs (and home dogs) and in part of the early success of big underdogs early this season – and it has created a market inefficiency that favors the betting public.
With all that said, remember one of the most important rules in gambling: just because something has been happening doesn’t mean it will continue to happen.
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Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) – I think Patrick Mahomes is going to play this week. I know he has a high ankle sprain. And the spread in the Houston game – the Texans are currently 2.5-point underdogs in Arrowhead – suggests that the sportsbooks are expecting Carson Wentz to start instead of Mahomes. Interestingly, South Point currently has the Chiefs +2.0. So, if you’re in Vegas I would run over and get a moneyline bet on the Chiefs now and then slap down a moneyline on the Texans later for a guaranteed profit.
2. Detroit Lions (12-2) – The Lions are proving once again why championships in the NFL are kind of fluky. If Detroit had its full roster, I think they are the best team in the league and they would likely win the Super Bowl. They aren’t healthy, though. Not even close. They just lost Alim McNeill, another starter on the defensive line, and they lost star running back David Montgomery, both for the year. But so it goes. No one will feel bad for the 12-2 Lions as they head to Chicago to face a rival Bears team that they have beaten four of the last five meetings (0-3 ATS in the last three meetings).
3. Buffalo Bills (11-3) – That was one of the most impressive wins of the season, going into Detroit and mauling the Lions in a game that was never that close. Any critiques seem foolish. However, Buffalo’s tackling is atrocious. It’s been a problem all season. But it was glaring on Sunday. This team doesn’t rally to the ball and their one-on-one tackling is poor. At some point in the postseason, a team has to get stops. Can this defense do it?
4. Philadelphia Eagles (12-2) – That’s 10 straight wins straight up and the Eagles are 7-3 ATS during that stint. Vic Fangio has been masterful with the defense, yet again. They’ve held eight of 10 teams to 19 points or below and the only two that cracked 20 did so in garbage time. The Eagles are also just 3-7 against the total during their streak.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) – Not much to say about that one; the Steelers just played poor football. They didn’t have many penalties – just five for 60 yards – but the ones they had were big ones, either extending Eagles drives or crippling their own. I expect a more buttoned-up effort this week against the Ravens. Also, I would not expect George Pickens to be back in uniform this week as he continues to rest his sore hamstring.
6. Minnesota Vikings (12-2) – There aren’t many nits to pick with a team that just won 30-12 and has a path to the No. 1 seed in the NFC. However, Sam Darnold taking a sack just before halftime on third down with 16 seconds left and no time outs is exactly the type of play that makes me not trust him. A Bears penalty negated the sack and allowed the Vikings to get a field goal out of the drive. But Darnold didn’t know that when he took the sack, and that play would’ve cost Minnesota points.
7. Green Bay Packers (10-4) – Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in four straight games, averaging 32.3 points over the last month. Remarkably, they have gone ‘over’ in only two of those games. Green Bay’s defense has held four of its last five opponents to 19 points or fewer, with the Lions the only attack to top the 20-point barrier. I expect the Packers defense to smother the rudderless Saints offense again this week.
8. Baltimore Ravens (9-5) – This week’s 6.0-point spread in the Ravens-Steelers game is the largest in series since Baltimore was a 10-point underdog back in December of 2020. The Ravens are just 1-8 SU in their last nine games against their hated rivals, and the favorite is just 1-10 ATS in this series going back to 2019.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6) – That is now four straight wins for the Bucs, and they are on a 5-1 ATS run. Tampa Bay is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Cowboys, but they lost their last meeting in January 2023 in a playoff loss, Tom Brady’s final game.
10. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) – The home team in the Broncos-Chargers series has won eight of the last 10 meetings. One of those road wins, though, came when Los Angeles went to Denver in October and punched the Broncos in the face, building a 23-0 lead through three quarters before winning 23-16. The Chargers held the ball for more than 37 minutes in that game and physically manhandled Denver in that game.
11. Seattle Seahawks (8-6) – The Seahawks had the fourth-worst rushing defense in the NFL through their first eight games, allowing nearly 150 yards per game on the road. They made some changes, held opponents to just 91.6 rushing yards per game during their next five games, and surged to first place in the NFC West. Then last week they got bludgeoned for 140 yards on the ground by the Packers. I think whoever wins the rushing battle will in Seattle’s battle with Minnesota this week will dominate the game.
12. Denver Broncos (9-5) – The Broncos have now become the best bet in football this year. They are now 11-3 ATS on the season, and they have beat the number in four straight and six of seven. One of those losses, though: a 23-16 loss as a three-point underdog versus the Chargers on Oct. 13.
13. Washington Commanders (9-5) – All 32 NFL teams have already had their bye weeks, so this is just something to remember for next year. But I’ve been screaming it all season: do not bet on big favorites out of a bye week. The Commanders are just another in a long line of examples of teams coming out of their week off a little flat and not beating the number.
14. Arizona Cardinals (7-7) – Arizona has traveled to Carolina five times in the last 10 years. They are 1-4 SU and ATS in those games and are just 1-6 SU and ATS against the Panthers overall over the past decade. Arizona has covered four straight spreads on the road in the eastern time zone.
15. Houston Texans (9-5) – It shouldn’t be a surprise that DeMeco Ryans has built a Top 10 defense. Houston has been dominating on that side of the ball, currently in the Top 5 in total defense, passing defense and takeaways. Those forced turnovers have helped Houston to the No. 3 slot in yards per point over the last three weeks, meaning that while the defense has been excellent, the offense has been even worse than its mediocre numbers suggest.
16. San Francisco 49ers (6-8) – The 49ers haven’t played in Miami since 2016. They have already made one trip to Florida this year, beating Tampa Bay 23-20 on Nov. 10. San Francisco also won at Jacksonville last year, so they have had a little success in Florida over the past 16 months. The 49ers are just 1-3 SU and ATS this season in games starting at 1 p.m. EST, so they are fortunate that this week’s East Coast trip kicks off at 4:30 p.m. EST.
17. Los Angeles Rams (8-6) – Bad news for the Rams this week: not only do they have to make the long trip to New York for a 10 a.m. PST start, but there is supposed to be 10 miles per hour of wind and temperatures in the 20’s. That has to be an advantage for the host Jets in this one.
18. Miami Dolphins (6-8) – Stop me if you’ve heard this one: last week Miami lost to another team with a winning record. Now, this week they are playing San Francisco, who is below .500. But I would consider the 49ers a good team. Miami doesn’t beat good teams. Do with that information what you will.
19. Cincinnati Bengals (6-8) – The Bengals won and covered the spread last week against the Titans, but there’s no way they could feel good about how they played. The two teams combined for 10 turnovers in that one game, and Cincinnati allowed nearly 400 yards of total offense to a Titans team that can’t walk and chew gum at the same time.
20. Atlanta Falcons (7-7) – The Falcons continue to be the worst bet in football. They are just 9-29 ATS in their last 38 games overall. The last time that Atlanta was a double-digit favorite was Dec. 16, 2018, when they throttled Arizona, 40-14.
21. Indianapolis Colts (6-8) – Jonathan Taylor’s fumble on his way into the end zone was the most impactful play in all the NFL last weekend. And it isn’t as if what Taylor did – literally dropping the ball in celebration before he got in the end zone – hasn’t happened before. I feel like it happens just about every season. How the hell is that possible? How is this not something that coaches have drilled into their players? That was an absolute gut-punch to anyone that had the Colts and the points last week.
22. Dallas Cowboys (6-8) – I’ve been saying it for weeks: this team deserves praise for not quitting on Mike McCarthy and not quitting on the season. Guys are playing hard and they are playing hurt. The Cowboys are just 1-6 SU this season at home. I simply don’t see that trend continuing, and they have two more chances this season to win in Jerry World. I have to think they get one of them.
23. Chicago Bears (4-10) – Throw the ball. Caleb Williams still hasn’t thrown an interception in eight games. That’s phenomenal for a rookie quarterback, since most rookies are turnover machines. But Williams is A) holding onto the ball way too long and missing too many open receivers and B) throwing too many lasers and not enough touch passes. I think he’s been very good this season on a bad team, but there is a lot of work to do with a guy who is barely throwing the ball more than a couple yards past the line of scrimmage each attempt.
24. New Orleans Saints (4-10) – I loved the decision to go for two to try to win the game – which was aided by a horrific mistake by the officials. I hated the play call. Rolling out there eliminates half of the field and the ability for Spencer Rattler to scramble. They basically gave him a one-read throw and a tiny window to put it in. We’ll see if Klint Kubiak learns from that mistake.
25. New York Jets (4-10) – The Jets have gone ‘over’ in four straight games, and their offense has been humming. They have scored 106 points in their last four games, and the oddsmakers are starting to notice. Their 46.5-point total this week is their highest of the season.
26. Cleveland Browns (3-11) – The Browns are leading the NFL in passing attempts, with Cleveland quarterbacks dropping back a ridiculous 546 times this season. Part of that has been due to offensive line injuries. Part of it has been from trailing so much. But last year Cleveland was actually No. 5 in passing attempts at 624 drop backs. Kevin Stefanski needs to reconsider his philosophy.
27. Carolina Panthers (3-11) – The Panthers are just 4-20 SU in their last 24 games overall. They are on a decent 5-1 ATS move, though, and they have beaten the total in nine of their last 12 games. Carolina has scored 20 or more points in four of their last six games. I’m expecting a bounce back effort from the Panthers attack after managing just 30 points over the last two weeks against two top defenses (Eagles, Cowboys).
28. New England Patriots (3-11) – The Patriots will face the Bills twice in the next three weeks. New England is a 14.5-point underdog this week, and that’s the ninth time in the last 20 years that there has been a double-digit spread in this series. It’s just the second time that DD dog has been New England, and the underdog has gone 5-3 ATS in those instances.
29. Las Vegas Raiders (2-12) – We’re going to find out something about Antonio Pierce this week. It would be in Vegas’ best interest to lose this game to Jacksonville to bolster its draft positioning. Will he do that, though? Pierce is a fighter and a competitor. Will he play to win or do the smart thing?
30. Tennessee Titans (3-11) – It’s bad enough that Will Levis had another humiliating effort on Sunday, turning the ball over three more times before getting benched. What put that performance over the top was the fact that his super-hot ex-girlfriend, online “influencer” Gia Duddy, was at the game to see it happen.
31. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-11) – This week will be just the fourth true road game that the Jaguars have played since Sept. 30. They won at Tennessee. But they were down 29-0 at Philadelphia and got buried 52-6 at Detroit.
32. New York Giants (2-12) – Despite the fact that everyone knows the Giants are pathetic, they are even worse than you think. New York is just 1-8 ATS during their current nine-game losing streak. They have been favored only once in that stretch and have been an underdog of four or more points seven times. I think this team is an automatic fade until they prove otherwise.
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