NFL Power Rankings Week 15
Scarcity equals value. The rarer something is, the more valuable it is. That’s one of the real powers (but not the only one) of the NFL and one of the reasons for its gargantuan popularity.
Because there are fewer games than any of the other sports, every play, every quarter and every game receive enormous scrutiny and outsized analysis.
The reality is that so much of football is statistical anomalies. But because there are so few games, those mathematical quirks don’t always get a chance to correct themselves.
That’s why it is more important to be predictive rather than reactive in the NFL. See, everyone overreacts each week to what they just saw 15 minutes ago. It can be hard for gamblers to avoid that pitfall. And that is why I always want my NFL power rankings to be more about projecting forward rather than just musical chairs of weekly chaos.
Well, I finally feel like, with four games left for everyone to play, that I’ve found equilibrium with my rankings.
I only had to make one change inside the top half of my rankings between Weeks 14 and 15. And basically, it was just a flop of Arizona and Seattle. After that, there were only three other changes, and those were basically rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic of the league’s bottom third.
So, I think we have it. I think we’ve established the NFL’s true hierarchy for the 2024 season. Sure, there can be disagreements over whether Philadelphia should be higher than Buffalo or Minnesota higher than Pittsburgh. But no one would deny that all those teams are among the league’s top five or six.
The same goes for the league’s second tier. Followed by the playoff hopefuls and then the playoff wannabes. Finally, we get into the dregs.
How useful are these rankings? That’s in the eye of the beholder. But this is as early as I can remember finding a place of calm and statis among these rankings during the league’s weekly anarchy.
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Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Detroit Lions (12-1) – I am still holding firm to my belief that the Lions aren’t going to go 17-1. In fact, I don’t think that either Detroit or Kansas City is going to avoid three regular season losses. Detroit is running out of ‘losable’ games, and I think that this week is one. It is also a bit of a red flag that Detroit isn’t even a firm three-point home favorite this week against the Bills.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) – Don’t bet against the streak, right? The Chiefs have now dumped seven straight games against the spread. This team simply has no interest in finding that second or third gear in the regular season, because they are simply saving it for the playoffs. They know that their legacy will be defined by Super Bowls, not regular season blowouts and ATS success.
3. Buffalo Bills (10-3) – The Bills are 12-8 ATS since the start of the 2020 season following a loss and they are 8-4 ATS as an underdog against everyone that isn’t the Kansas City Chiefs. All three of Buffalo’s losses this year have come on the road, and they are just 1-2 ATS as an underdog. Also, Buffalo’s loss last week snapped a 245-game winning streak for NFL teams that scored six touchdowns in a game where they also had zero turnovers.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (11-2) – How can you be on a nine-game winning streak and still be dealing with locker room drama and internal strife? Four of Philly’s wins during that streak have come by six points or fewer, and only three of them have been against teams that are currently in the playoff race. I’m not knocking the Eagles – you are a legit-as-hell football team if you win nine straight games – but I am saying that this team still has some holes in its boat.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) – I’m not going to continue to trot out Mike Tomlin’s insane numbers ATS as an underdog. I will say that they are 14-5 straight-up and 14-5 against the spread in their last 19 games as a dog and that all three of their losses this season have come by five points or fewer.
6. Minnesota Vikings (11-2) – The last time the Vikings won back-to-back games by more than a touchdown was in Week 14 and Week 15 of the 2019 season.
7. Green Bay Packers (9-4) – The Lions are the only team to beat the Packers since the end of September. Green Bay is 5-1 SU in their last six meetings with Seattle and they are on a 7-0 ATS run in the series. However, the home team has won 10 straight between these two teams (8-2 ATS) and the road team hasn’t won outright since 2008.
8. Baltimore Ravens (8-5) – The Ravens are a pedestrian 11-8 ATS in their 19 games after a bye week under John Harbaugh. Also, double-digit favorites in the NFL are 0-5 ATS over the last several weeks, with one outright loss (Dallas over Washington) and a couple near-misses against the Chiefs.
9. Los Angeles Chargers (8-5) – Over the last 10 weeks, the Chargers have beaten exactly one team – Denver – that currently has a winning record. Los Angeles is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games, but most of their success this season has come against bottom feeders.
10. Seattle Seahawks (8-5) – Over the last five years, the Seahawks are just 5-8 SU as a home underdog. They have lost three straight games as a home underdog this season alone, falling to the 49ers (36-24), Bills (31-10) and Rams (26-20).
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) – Mike Evans apparently lit into Jamel Dean and the Bucs defense after they failed to get a key 4th-and-5 stop in the fourth quarter against the Raiders. Tampa’s defense has allowed an average of only 16 points per game over the last four outings. However, this week they will face their first real quarterback in a month.
12. Denver Broncos (8-5) – Both the Colts and the Broncos are coming off bye weeks, meaning that no one has a rest advantage. However, Sean Payton is 10-4 straight up in his last 14 games after a week of rest.
13. Washington Commanders (8-5) – The offseason line on this Commanders-Saints game was Washington +3.0. That shows you how far this group has come. I am always wary of teams coming out of a bye week. However, I sort of expect a lot of energy out of this team in New Orleans. They weren’t expected to be playing meaningful games in December. They are. Let’s see if they come out groggy after a week off or sharp and ready for a playoff push.
14. Arizona Cardinals (6-7) – There is a heavy reverse line movement on the Patriots-Cardinals game this week. This number opened with the host Cardinals around 6.5. Despite nearly 80 percent of the early week action coming in on Arizona, this number has dropped to 5.5 at some books. The Cardinals buried the public last week with their home loss to Seattle. I wonder if bettors are trying to buy back.
15. Houston Texans (8-5) – We are going to find out a lot about the Texans this week. They have been thoroughly unimpressive for most of this season. They are just 3-4 SU and ATS over their last seven games, and their last win over a team with a winning record was two months ago. I’m skeptical that this team will come out of its bye week sharp. And they have two bigger games against the Chiefs and Ravens (over a four-day span) coming up on deck. Are they looking past the Fins?
16. San Francisco 49ers (6-7) – The modest 2.5-point spread in Rams-49ers has a similar feel to it as the 2.5 that was posted in the Seattle-Arizona game last week. It is almost as if the sportsbooks are baiting action on the home team with perceived value below a key number.
17. Los Angeles Rams (7-6) – The Rams are 3-0 ATS in their last three games against the 49ers, with two outright wins. They were catching at least six points in each of those three games, though, and those ATS wins came after a seven-game ATS losing streak in the series. The Rams have won three straight road games, and they are 6-2 SU in their last eight games, with outright upsets over the Bills and Vikings.
18. Miami Dolphins (6-7) – Credit to the Dolphins offensive line. When starting left tackle Terron Armstead went out, they were playing without both starting tackles and with two shaky guards. Miami’s line didn’t allow a sack on nearly 50 dropbacks. I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance this week against a Houston defense that is No. 2 in the NFL in sacks, and I’m expecting the total on this game to drop if Armstead is out this week
19. Cincinnati Bengals (5-8) – This will be the fifth season in a row that the Bengals have taken on the Titans, and this is the fourth straight year they will play in Nashville. The Bengals have won three of the last four in this series, and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven against the Titans. They did lose 27-3 in Tennessee last October, though, and are playing with revenge.
20. Atlanta Falcons (6-7) – The Falcons became the first team in NFL history to throw zero touchdowns and eight or more interceptions over a four-game span while their opponents threw eight or more touchdowns without an interception in those same games. Kirk Cousins is obviously a mess right now – he is a statue in the pocket – but the fact that the Falcons have allowed 11 touchdown passes and 117 points during that span is just as big of a deal.
21. Indianapolis Colts (6-7) – This is a season-defining game for the Colts and could be an early career-defining game for Anthony Richardson. If they lose at Denver, they have less than a 10 percent chance of making the playoffs. If they can pull the upset, then they will be one game behind the Broncos for the final playoff spot with the tiebreaker in hand and a closing schedule that has them facing the Titans, Giants and Jaguars.
22. Chicago Bears (4-9) – I am wondering if we are going to see with the Bears defense what we’ve seen with the Jets defense after firing their head coach. The Jets defense has cratered since they canned Robert Saleh. Matt Eberflus was a loser as a game manager and head coach. But there is no denying he did a solid job as the defensive signal caller. Chicago’s stop unit looked awful without him last week. And with the Vikings, Lions, Seahawks and Packers on deck, it could be an ugly December.
23. Dallas Cowboys (5-8) – The Cowboys have won three of their last five road games. And the two losses were both by six points at Atlanta and at San Francisco, so Dallas has been good away from home. I also have to give Mike McCarthy some credit for the fact that this team has not quit on him and continues to play hard. Also, Dallas’ failure to repeat at NFC East champion means that the division will have a new winner for the 20th straight year.
24. New Orleans Saints (4-9) – Derek Carr is not out for the year. He isn’t going on injured reserve and he could still start this week. He is in the concussion protocol and needs to clear that to be able to play. He did break his left hand but could wear a brace and play through it. Early reports that he was going on injured reserve were wrong. That said, I don’t know if his presence is going to do anything to New Orleans’ offensive performance while costing them some points on the spread.
25. New York Jets (3-10) – On the one hand, yes, it is ridiculous to consider these losers as a potential wager in the road of road favorite. Hell, the Jets arguably shouldn’t be favored over anyone right now. That said, if we scan New York’s schedule, it becomes clearer that these guys have had a brutal slate this year. They have played just one team – New England – that isn’t currently involved in the playoff race. Despite that, just two of their losses – at Arizona and at Pittsburgh – have been by more than one score.
26. Cleveland Browns (3-10) – That is now two more interceptions for Jameis Winston. He has nine touchdowns and nine interceptions over his last five games. And despite putting up some big passing numbers – he is averaging 311.6 yards per game in the air – the Browns have still been held to 14 points or less in three of those five outings. This guy is a proven loser.
27. Carolina Panthers (3-10) – The last time the Panthers were posted as a favorite was Dec. 2022. They lost to the Steelers as 2.5-point favorites. The last time Carolina won and covered a game laying points was Sept. 2021 when they beat the Texans 24-9 as nine-point favorites.
28. New England Patriots (3-10) – I would keep my expectations low for a rookie head coach coming off a bye week. Especially when he is leading a team whose season is essential over. It must be tough to keep this group motivated when they have little to play for but pride.
29. Las Vegas Raiders (2-11) – The Raiders have trailed by double digits in every game they've played this season. They are just the second team in NFL history to trail by at least 10 points in each of their first 13 games, joining the 1986 Colts.
30. Tennessee Titans (3-10) – The Titans are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games. That is bizarre considering how bad this team is and how quickly the sportsbooks usually adjust to that. Tennessee is 2-11 ATS on the season, and five of their last six losses have come by at least 10 points.
31. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10) – At a certain point, the Jaguars have to almost accidentally score some points. They have four offensive touchdowns in four games, with two of them coming in garbage time in a loss to Houston. Jacksonville has a 22.7 yards per point mark over the last month and feel like they are due for some ‘hidden points’.
32. New York Giants (2-11) – No, I don’t think that Graham Gano intentionally missed that game-tying field goal last week. I think that NFL conspiracy theories are on par with any Q-Anon, right-wing nonsense. The reality is much simpler: this is just a joke of a football team that can’t do basic things well.
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