NFL Power Rankings Week 14
Mama told me there would be weeks like this.
Just because I am a professional doesn’t mean that I am immune to the grotesque and indiscriminate whims of the Gambling Gods.
And I have to say, last weekend was a doozy. I’ve had worse weekends. I’ve lost more money. But this one took a particular bite for some reason.
Please check out some of the highlights and lament with me:
- I’m a Chicago Bears fan. I had been telling people all week that Chicago (+9.5) was the play, and I described the game perfectly: I predicted the Bears would fall behind by around 17-20 points, but then find a way to chip away at the lead and eventually have the ball with a chance to win the game. As a bettor I was vindicated. But as a fan I was forced to watch in horror at those final 32 excruciating seconds. And that’s how I started my Thanksgiving!
- On Saturday, my two biggest college football plays were on Vanderbilt (+11) and USC (+7.5). Watching Vanderbilt race out to a 14-0 lead only to fail to cover was rough, but it happens.
However, the USC beat was an all-timer. Down just 35-28 with under four minutes to play, the Trojans were driving for a go-ahead touchdown. They threw a 99-yard pick six. Horrific. Just gut wrenching.
But then it somehow got worse.
Now down 14 points, USC marched right down the field and had a chance to score a touchdown to sneak in the backdoor and cover the spread in a game that they absolutely deserved to cover. Then what happened? A 100-yard pick six.
That’s right: a 99-yard interception return for a touchdown followed by a 100-yard interception return for a touchdown on back-to-back possessions.
- I figured I was due for some good luck on Sunday. Nope. I did fine with my side plays. But my biggest release in the NFL on Sunday was a daily prop bet on Christian McCaffery to go ‘over’ 59.5 rushing yards. He made it to 58. Then on the next play took a five-yard loss as he pulled up with a PCL strain that ended his season.
I’m not listing all these bad beats because I want you to feel bad for me. It’s gambling. It happens. The point is that it doesn’t just happen to you!
Sometimes the joy of sports betting is in the communal aspect of making some bets with your buddies and watching the games together. Yet, the results of gambling are always very individual. It’s your money. It was your choice on who to put it on. And there are times when it feels like the Gambling Gods are conspiring against you and only you. It can be frustrating and disheartening.
But that’s part of the game. “Buy the ticket, take the ride.” And I’m here to remind you that it happens to all of us.
Not only that, but after taking one kick in the balls after another all weekend, I was convinced that my second-biggest NFL side of the week, a 5-Unit Play on the Broncos on Monday, was dead in the water before the game even started. “Just one of those weekends.”
What happened? Denver used two interceptions returned for touchdowns to steal a 41-32 victory as a soft favorite. That was a game they 100% didn’t deserve to win, much less cover the spread. So it goes.
And now on to this week.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Detroit Lions (11-1) – The Lions just keep winning – and keep having guys get hurt on defense. Three more defensively linemen – Josh Paschal, Levi Onwuzurike and D.J. Reader – are hurt and missed practice this week. It also looks like tackle Taylor Decker is going to miss Thursday’s game with the Packers. At a certain point, these injuries have to catch up with this group. Detroit is 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games against Green Bay.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) – The Chiefs are now on an 0-6 ATS slide, and I don’t know if there has been a less dominant 11-1 team over the last three decades. Their issues at both offensive tackle positions are a major problem and one of the primary reasons for their offensive struggles. The books may have over adjusted Kansas City’s totals, though, as the Chiefs are 4-2 against the total in their last six games.
3. Buffalo Bills (10-2) – That is now seven straight outright wins and a 6-1 ATS run from the Bills, who are staking their claim as the best team in the NFL. I will admit it: I thought this team’s Super Bowl window was closing. However, this looks like their most balanced team, and Joe Brady has been one of the best coordinators in the NFL this year.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) – That is now eight straight wins for what has become the streakiest team in the NFL. Philly is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games but are in a letdown/look ahead situation here. They just sprung a road upset against a fierce Ravens team. And next week they have a date with in-state rival Pittsburgh. Smack in between they are double-digit favorites against one of the worst teams in the league. This is where Nick Sirianni needs to make his bones. He needs to have his guys ready to play.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) – For the life of me, I will never understand why the Steelers ‘under’ 8.5 wins was one of the most popular futures bets this offseason. Sure, all the metrics pointed to them overachieving last year. But why bet against the streak? That is now 21 straight years at .500 or better, including an 18-for-18 mark for Mike Tomlin.
6. Minnesota Vikings (10-2) – The Vikings have beat the number in only two of their last five games. They have also scored over 23 points only once in their last six outings, which seems bizarre given the wealth of offensive weapons that they are working with. Minnesota beat Atlanta 31-28 on the road last year, but that was with Kirk Cousins wearing purple and gold.
7. Green Bay Packers (9-3) – The Packers outgained Detroit 411-261 in the first meeting but lost 24-14 at home in early November. Green Bay fumbled three times, threw a pick-six, and turned three trips inside the Detroit 35 into zero points. They also allowed Detroit to turn two fourth down conversions into touchdowns.
8. Baltimore Ravens (8-5) – If you are expecting the Ravens to figure things out over the bye week, I wouldn’t count on it. Zach Orr is really over his head at defensive coordinator, and this team’s defense is a train wreck. The one thing they were doing well – they were No. 2 in rushing defense, allowing 82.7 per game – has fallen apart as well. Baltimore surrendered 140 on the ground to the Eagles last week and has given up nearly 120 per game over their last three.
9. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4) – The Chargers have lost to the Chiefs six straight times. But like with everything the Chiefs have done lately, most of those wins have come by the skin of Kansas City’s teeth. Four of the six wins have come by fewer than three points or overtime. Los Angeles is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games but just 1-3 ATS this year as an underdog.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) – Tampa Bay is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games against AFC opponents. They have a clear situational advantage this week with the Raiders having to fly cross-country. Eleven of Tampa Bay’s last 16 wins over the past two seasons have come by 10 points or more. This is one of the rare teams in the league that steps on its opponents’ throat.
11. Arizona Cardinals (6-6) – This week is a quick revenge turnaround for the Cardinals. They lost to Seattle on Nov. 24, so this is their second crack at the Seahawks in 15 days. Arizona went 0-for-2 in the red zone against Seattle in the first meeting, and the Cardinals were 1-for-6 in the red zone last week. Trey McBride is dominating and leads the team in receptions by a wide margin (32 catches). Arizona must find a way to work McBride into the red zone attack, as it is unreal that he has zero touchdown catches on the season.
12. Denver Broncos (8-5) – Bo Nix’s laser 93-yard touchdown pass to Marcus Mims was as good of a throw as you will ever see. That was a key 3rd-and-11, in the shadow of his own goal line, and Nix had made a questionable across-the-body throw on the previous down. But he didn’t hesitate on the seam route to Mims, and that play was a game changer. Oh yeah: and Levi Wallace is awful.
13. Washington Commanders (8-5) – Part of Washington’s offensive breakout last week was the fact that they were playing the Titans. Part of it was the fact that Kliff Kingsbury finally changed some things up. He was moving players around, used the pistol formation more, and were aggressive with the running game. I still don’t think Kingsbury is nearly as sharp as a lot of people, but he finally started to play some different cards last week.
14. Seattle Seahawks (7-5) – Some people don’t believe that West Coast teams struggle going east to play in 10 a.m. PST kickoffs. Those people should watch the first half of Seattle’s game at New York last week for yet another example. The Seahawks ended up winning the game and covering the spread, so non-believers would point to that game as proof that the time change and travel don’t matter. But it was obvious that Seattle was still asleep in that first half, and they should’ve been down 28-7. Had they been playing anyone but the joke Jets, they would’ve gotten demolished last week.
15. Houston Texans (8-5) – I have completely soured on this team. The Texans really aren’t very good. And this is yet another example of the team that “wins the offseason” failing to live up to expectations during the regular season. We see it every year in every sport. And Houston’s 5-8 ATS mark and impending first round blowout loss in the playoffs qualify as a disappointment.
16. San Francisco 49ers (5-7) – The 49ers have been outscored 93-37 over their last three games. I don’t know if the offensive breakout is going to come this week against Chicago’s Cover-2 defense, which has long been the nemesis of the Shanahan-Kubiak offense. Also, the ‘under’ is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Chicago and San Francisco.
17. Los Angeles Rams (6-6) – I wouldn’t be surprised to see this Bills-Rams total get over 50.0 this week. The early money has come in on the ‘over’ in this game, and both teams are capable of lighting it up. Buffalo leads the NFL in games scoring 30 or more points, and the Rams are averaging a solid 23.7 points per game over the last six games.
18. Miami Dolphins (5-7) – The Dolphins have owned the Jets over the last four years. Since the start of the 2019 season, they are 8-2 SU and ATS against New York, with their wins coming by an average of 14.9 points per game. Just one of those eight wins has come by less than a touchdown.
19. Atlanta Falcons (6-6) – I think it is smart not to throw Michael Penix into the fire right now. And, frankly, I think Atlanta is doing a great job of handling Penix’s development. What are you going to do, throw a rookie in for his first starts in December in the middle of a division title run? How is that going to help him or the team? Kirk Cousins is making his return to Minnesota this Sunday, and it will be interesting to see how the crowd responds to him.
20. Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) – For the love of God, how many more weeks do we have to listen to football bobbleheads suggest that “the Bengals NEED this win to keep their playoff hopes alive”? It’s been about five straight. This team sucks. Joe Burrow is awesome, but the Bengals are pathetic and can’t stop anyone. They’ve allowed 113 points in their last three games and have gone ‘over’ in five straight and nine of their last 11.
21. Indianapolis Colts (6-7) – For the second straight year, I don’t even know what to make of this team. With the Titans, Giants and Jaguars left on the schedule, they may get to nine wins yet again. But they are still pretty bad. They cannot stop anyone. They are allowing the third-most rushing yards per game (147.0) and surrendered 200 rushing yards to the Patriots. Their last three opponents have crushed them for 6.5 yards per rush – and they have won two of those games.
22. Chicago Bears (4-8) – Over the last few years, we’ve seen teams get a short-term performance bump from mid-season coaching firings. I wouldn’t count on that from Chicago merely because the locker room seems like such a toxic mess right now. I also agree with the people saying that Chicago’s last-second meltdown in Detroit was on Caleb Williams just as much as Matt Eberflus. I mean, you’ve been playing quarterback your whole life, dude. A) Don’t take a sack there and B) watch the clock.
23. New Orleans Saints (4-8) – I know they are playing the pathetic Giants, but I don’t know that I trust the Saints to be favored this week. They are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite dating back to the 2022 season. They have lost outright in their last two games when they were laying points.
24. Dallas Cowboys (5-7) – I honestly forgot that Brandin Cooks played for the Cowboys! He’s been on injured reserve for two months, and his return definitely gave the Cowboys offense a jolt. Also, this team must continue to find a way to get KaVontae Turpin involved. He is too explosive not to touch the ball 6-8 times per game.
25. New York Jets (3-9) – I think one of my favorite plays of the weekend was when Aaron Rodgers was out in front blocking on a reverse and he got lit up by a Seattle defender along the sidelines. Rodgers got up smiling and laughing, but it was still hilarious to see him get put on his ass.
26. Cleveland Browns (3-9) – I swear to God, every time Jameis Winston drops back to pass, I am holding my breath and waiting for a turnover. On Monday, he showed why he will always continue to find gainful employment as a quarterback. He threw for nearly 500 yards and had some brilliant throws. But he also showed why he will always be a loser, throwing two pick-sixes (and a third INT) that were the difference in the game.
27. New England Patriots (3-10) – The Patriots head into the bye on a 4-2 ATS run. Two of their final four games are against Buffalo, and the others are against playoff contenders Arizona and the L.A. Chargers. So, we will see how inflated their numbers will be against far superior competition. They have been double-digit underdogs only once this year, and that was a 30-13 loss at San Francisco.
28. Carolina Panthers (3-9) – This week will be the first time since Oct. 27 that the Panthers have to play a true road game. They have had three straight at home and one game against the Giants in Germany. That soft part of the schedule has aided their recent 4-0 ATS run. They have allowed 5.7 yards per rush over the last three weeks (6.1 last week) and will have their hands full with Saquon Barkley this week.
29. Las Vegas Raiders (2-10) – I’m not sure what changes the Raiders have made along the front seven, but they have been working. Las Vegas is allowing just 3.3 yards per rush over their last three games, one of the best marks in the league. The results the last two weeks have been a game against the Broncos that they could’ve won and a game against the Chiefs they should’ve won.
30. Tennessee Titans (3-9) – So much for being a Top 5 defense. The Titans had a complete and total letdown/meltdown after their upset win over the Texans two weeks ago, allowing 267 rushing yards to Washington and managing only 35 rushing yards for themselves. There is no reason that this team should be favored over anyone this week.
31. New York Giants (2-10) – The squeaky wheel gets the grease. One week after complaining about his role in the offense, Malik Nabers received 13 targets and made eight catches against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. The problem is that those 13 targets yielded only 69 yards.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) – Let’s forget about the vicious, dirty hit that Trevor Lawrence took for a second. The bigger question is: why the hell was he even out there? Lawrence has an AC joint injury on his non-throwing shoulder that needs surgery this offseason. This season is lost. Why are they putting their franchise quarterback at risk in meaningless games? Oh, right, because they are the Jaguars.
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