NFL Power Rankings Week 13
It’s Thanksgiving Week, which is the busiest gambling week of the season. As such, I’m going to keep this short and sweet.
Also, this week we will be releasing our football picks at 6 p.m. on Wednesday, Nov. 27, to accommodate the Thanksgiving holiday.
Happy Thanksgiving to each of you and your loved ones and good luck this week!
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Detroit Lions (10-1) – The Lions have outscored their last three opponents 53-0 in the second half of their last three games. The Lions defense has somehow gotten better, statistically, since Aiden Hutchinson went out, and Detroit is No. 1 in passer rating defense and hasn’t allowed more than one passing touchdown in a game this season.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (10-1) – At a certain point, it is kind of eyebrow raising that Kansas City can’t seem to put bad teams away. Where is that next gear? Kansas City is 0-5 ATS in their last five games and 13-18 ATS in their last 31 games laying out a touchdown or more.
3. Buffalo Bills (9-2) – This week will be just the third time this year that Buffalo is favored by a touchdown or more (they are 1-1 ATS). The Bills are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite of 7.0+ dating back to the middle of the 2022 season.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (9-2) – The Eagles and Ravens don’t play often. But when they do, the games are usually rock fights. The last three meetings between these two teams have been easy covers for the underdog, with the games decided by two, one and one point. Philadelphia is now 5-1 SU and ATS on the road this season.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) – There is no way in hell that I’m betting against the Steelers as an underdog. Yes, this week’s spread against the Bengals is an absolute trap line, baiting the public to jump on Pittsburgh. I’m not dumb enough to miss the oddity of that number. But I’m also not stupid enough to bet against Mike Tomlin when he’s getting points.
6. Baltimore Ravens (8-4) – Lamar Jackson is now 18-4 straight up after a loss, winning 10 of his last 11 after a defeat with 16 touchdown passes to just four interceptions. Jackson is also 20-5 SU in primetime games with 59 touchdown passes to just 11 interceptions, and he has never thrown an INT on Monday Night Football, against 25 touchdown passes.
7. Minnesota Vikings (9-2) – Last week against the Bears, Minnesota had a 300-yard passer, two 100-yard receivers, and a 100-yard rusher for the first time in 24 years. That scary part is that the offense achieved all that with Justin Jefferson being held to just 27 yards on two receptions.
8. Green Bay Packers (8-3) – All of the talk after last week’s win over the 49ers was about how San Francisco has fallen apart and the end of their NFC ‘dynasty’. How about some love for how dominating the Packers looked? Their run defense was impenetrable, and their offense is back to feeling like you expect them to put points on the board every time they have the ball. Green Bay is 15-7 SU in their last 22 games against AFC opponents, dating back to the start of the 2020 season.
9. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) – Will the Chargers be able to avoid the letdown this week? They are coming off a disappointing Monday night loss at home. Now they have to fly across the country for the dreaded 10 a.m. start time on a short week versus a team that is out of a bye. That’s a significant situational disadvantage.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6) – Tampa has won seven of their last eight games against the Panthers. The last three have all been battles, though, with the Bucs winning 9-0, 21-18 and 30-24 in those contests. The favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.
11. Arizona Cardinals (6-5) – The Cardinals’ putrid effort up in Seattle is example No. 589 about my long-running NFL theory: teams coming out of a bye week are great fades. Bye weeks help with injury recovery, but they absolutely kill momentum.
12. Denver Broncos (7-5) – This week’s Monday Night Football game against the Browns could be a national coming out party for Bo Nix and the Broncos. They have covered the spread in five of their last six games and eight of 10. The Broncos are No. 3 in the NFL over the last three weeks with a 12.2 yards per point on offense.
13. Washington Commanders (7-5) – Austin Ekeler suffered a significant concussion at the end of that Dallas game and went to the hospital afterwards. He isn’t going to play this week. There is also a good chance they are without Brian Robinson again this week with an ankle injury and could be without two offensive line starters.
14. Seattle Seahawks (6-5) – Will Seattle have a letdown after three straight divisional games? This is a bit of a revenge game for Geno Smith, who is going back to New York after starting his career with the Jets. Smith was able to exorcise some of those demons while beating the Jets 23-6 in Seattle last year. The Seahawks haven’t lost to the Jets since Dec. 2004.
15. San Francisco 49ers (5-6) – That is an 8-Unit NFL Futures winner on San Francisco ‘under’ 11.5 wins. Thank you to my clients that bet and won that one along with me!
16. Houston Texans (7-5) – Stroud has already thrown more interceptions (9 to 5) and taken more sacks (39 to 38) this season than he did all last year. Houston has scored just eight offensive touchdowns in the second half this year, tied for worst in the league with Arizona (who has played one fewer game).
17. Los Angeles Rams (5-6) – The Rams are now 20-25 SU in their last 45 regular season games since winning the Super Bowl three years ago. They have played the Saints each of the past two seasons, with the home team winning by a touchdown each time.
18. Miami Dolphins (5-6) – Before we get too excited about this team, let’s remember that they went 1-5 last year against teams that finished over .500 and played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. Now this year Miami has played the NFL's easiest schedule in 2024, based on opponent winning percentage. The Dolphins are also just 3-9 in their last 12 primetime games and 3-7 all-time in games where the temperature is below 23 degrees.
19. Atlanta Falcons (6-5) – The Falcons have had just five offensive plays of 40 or more yards this entire season. Three of those have come from Kyle Pitts, and two of those were the results of defensive breakdowns and not Pitts’ game-breaking ability. The more I look at the numbers for this team the less I like them.
20. Cincinnati Bengals (4-7) – It is definitely a red flag that the Bengals are favored at home here against the first-place Steelers. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after an ATS loss. And dating back to last year, they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after failing to cover a spread.
21. Indianapolis Colts (5-7) – Penalties were killers for the Colts last week. Indy had plays of 21, 19, seven and 30 yards, as well a fourth down conversion, all eliminated by penalties. They finished with 10 accepted penalties. And you just can’t expect to be competitive when you are constantly punching yourself in the face.
22. Chicago Bears (4-7) – Matt Eberflus is now 14-31 as a head coach. The Bears actually outplayed the Lions in both meetings last year. They were up 26-14 in Detroit with three minutes left and blew that game in the first matchup. Then they hammered the Lions 28-13 at home in the return game. The Bears are 6-4 SU and ATS in the last 10 games against the Lions.
23. New Orleans Saints (4-7) – The Saints have run the ball 55 times for 310 yards over the last two weeks. After watching the Rams get tossed around by the Eagles, I would expect New Orleans to feature a run-heavy offensive game plan this week. Keep those Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill props in mind.
24. New York Jets (3-8) – Do you think that the Jets coaching staff did anything productive with this team during the bye week? Me neither. They have the situational advantage – off a bye, at home, playing against Seattle in a 10 a.m. kickoff – but there is no way I expect them to do anything with those edges.
25. Cleveland Browns (3-8) – It didn’t get much coverage in the broadcast, but it was a brilliant maneuver for Kevin Stefanski to go for two after Cleveland scored to go up 16-6 with 12 minutes to play. If the two-point attempt failed, then the Browns lose nothing; they are still up a TD, extra point, and field goal. However, by converting, they went up 12 and made it a two-touchdown lead, completely changing how the Steelers offense would have to approach the final 12 minutes. So many coaches get those decisions wrong. It was nice to see a head coach that understands basic math.
26. Dallas Cowboys (4-7) – It is always bizarre to me that some guys can be such amazing kick returners but they can’t do anything else on the offense. I mean, the Cowboys have to find a way to get the ball in KaVontae Turpin’s hands more often. Work him into the running game and some short passing stuff. He’s one of their best players; get the man involved. Dallas has beaten the Giants seven straight times and is 5-2 ATS in those games.
27. New England Patriots (3-9) – Only 15.8 percent of Drake Maye’s passing attempts this year have been thrown beyond 15 yards this year. He is also completing just 43.4 percent of his throws that travel more than 10 yards this season.
28. Carolina Panthers (3-8) – This team is showing signs of life and has covered three straight games. I expect them to be kind of game and competitive the rest of the season. Head coach Dave Canales will be going against his former team this week. It will be interesting to see if he has any wrinkles or insights from his time in Tampa that help his team against the Bucs.
29. Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) – The Raiders actually went to Kansas City and beat the Chiefs on Christmas last year as an 11-point underdog. The Raiders are 5-4 ATS in their last nine games against the Chiefs, and I have to feel like if the Panthers and Broncos can throw a scare into Kansas City that the Raiders should be able to hang around with the Chiefs.
30. Tennessee Titans (3-8) – This will be Tennessee’s fifth road game in its last seven weeks. The only two games where they have covered the spread this season were on the road. They are still just 3-10 ATS away from home, though, over the last two seasons, and the weekly incompetence we see from this group – they had three more turnovers last week – makes them a tough team to trust.
31. New York Giants (2-9) – I’m not going to lie: I absolutely love it that the Giants have become one of the biggest jokes in the NFL. Most Giants fans are dickheads, so I love seeing them shackled to this loser franchise.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) – It looks like Trevor Lawrence is practicing this week, so he may not be out for the rest of the year. I am not expecting him to play this week against the Texans, though, and the Jaguars have mustered just 13 points in two games with Mac Jones under center.
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