NFL Power Rankings Week 12
It is time to pay homage to Mike Tomlin.
I’m not going to deep dive into his coaching achievements and his career. I’m not going to stage the debate of whether or not he’s a “great” coach or why if he’s so great he hasn’t won more Super Bowls. I don’t really care about any of that.
What I do care about, and what deserves to be recognized, is that Tomlin may be the greatest underdog coach in NFL history.
It is hard to find definitive records because spreads and results vary across different sites and record keepers. But one number I have seen has Tomlin as 61-31-3 against the spread in his career as an underdog. I saw 61-35-4 ATS at another site.
Regardless, the guy has been nearly an automatic bet when posted as an underdog.
Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers are 4-0 both straight up and ATS this season as a dog, with last week’s 18-16 win over the rival Baltimore Ravens putting the Steelers in pole position for the AFC North race.
Further, according to ESPN, Tomlin is the only head coach in the Super Bowl era that has coached 50 or more games as an underdog and still posted a winning record. Tomlin is somewhere around 50-41 straight up when his team is taking points.
Now, I’m sure I’m going to wish I never pointed any of this out. And I am willing to bet that just by bringing attention to Tomlin’s astounding success I’m going to jinx him and the Steelers, who will likely go 2-8 ATS in their next 10 games as underdogs. But if you don’t acknowledge greatness, you never get a chance to appreciate it. And for two decades Tomlin has been one of the best bets in NFL gambling history.
Kudos.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Detroit Lions (9-1) – Detroit’s +159 point differential is by far the highest in the NFL (by over 50 points) and they are on pace to post the highest single-season point differential since the 2007 Patriots. The offense is a juggernaut. But not enough attention has been paid to Detroit’s defense, which is No. 5 in the league in points per game (17.7). I was expecting them to back off during garbage time last week, but they never did.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) – The Chiefs are obviously in a bounce back situation here after taking their first loss of the season. However, they haven’t been great as a large favorite. Kansas City is 0-3 ATS as a favorite of a touchdown or more and they are 12-17-1 ATS in their last 30 games when laying 7.0 or more points.
3. Buffalo Bills (9-2) – I am going to be very interested to see how Buffalo responds after the bye week. The bye week is crippling to team momentum. The Bills are also in a bit of a letdown spot after their emotional win over Kansas City. Will the bye exacerbate that?
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2) – The Steelers are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 regular season games following a game against the Ravens. Interestingly, Pittsburgh has covered the number in three straight post-Baltimore games the past two seasons. But prior to that they were on a 1-9 ATS slide after those physical battles. Pittsburgh could be headed for a letdown here on the road, on a short week, off a huge win, facing a division rival.
5. Baltimore Ravens (7-4) – The talent is there. The execution is not. Baltimore leads the league in penalties by a wide margin, committing 110 in their 11 games. The Ravens have had 92 penalties against them accepted for 763 yards. They took 12 flags for 80 yards against the Steelers while Justin Tucker continues his career slide with two more missed field goal. This team just doesn’t do the little things and that makes me wonder if they are a true Super Bowl threat.
6. Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) – The Eagles made this same trip out to Los Angeles to face the Rams last October as a small favorite. Philadelphia won that game 23-14, outgaining the Rams 454-249 and holding the ball for 38 minutes in a nine-point win. The only reason the game was ever that close was because the Eagles went just 2-for-6 in the red zone and settled for three field goals of under 34 yards.
7. Minnesota Vikings (8-2) – Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defense should be able to overwhelm a Chicago Bears offense and offensive line that has been a teetering mess all season. The Vikings have won four of their five road games this season and they are 5-1 straight up in their last six games against the Bears. Minnesota is 6-3 ATS in their last nine against Chicago and have won their last three trips to Soldier Field.
8. Green Bay Packers (7-3) – The line on the Packers game has been moving all week. This number opened at -1.5 but has been bet up to -2.5 for the home team. That movement has come despite a majority of the early action going toward San Francisco. The Packers will want revenge against the 49ers for their playoff losses in 2024 and 2022 and Green Bay is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.
9. San Francisco 49ers (5-5) – The 8-Unit NFL Futures Play that I released to my clients this year was San Francisco ‘under’ 11.5 wins. I would never count my money until the ticket is cashed, but it sure looks like this is another 8-Unit winner. Over the last 30 years, 12 Super Bowl losers failed to make the playoffs the following season. It wouldn’t be unprecedented if the Niners came up short.
10. Washington Commanders (7-4) – Crumbling Kliff Kingsbury is showing up in Washington. Jayden Daniels was No. 2 in the NFL in EPA through the first nine weeks of the season. He is No. 24 over the last two weeks. Sound familiar with Kingsbury? Despite Daniels hitting a rough patch, it isn’t as if the Commanders have fallen off a cliff. They are still averaging 22.5 points over their last four games despite facing the Bears, Steelers and Eagles defenses. They should be able to light up the Cowboys.
11. Arizona Cardinals (6-4) – This is a situation where the bye week could definitely hurt a team. Arizona has won four straight games and had all kinds of momentum prior to their week off. Now they are hitting the road to face a Seattle team flying high after a big upset in San Francisco. Arizona has lost five straight games to the Seahawks and the ‘under’ is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.
12. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) – If you compare the numbers from John Harbaugh’s opening 10 games with his first 49ers team (in 2011) to the numbers from his first Chargers team it is freakish. Both teams averaged around the same number of points (25.6 to 22.0), allowed the exact same number of points (14.3) and touchdown passes (13), and nearly identical offensive EPAs, defensive EPAs, and rushing touchdowns. That 2011 49ers team made it to the NFC Championship Game.
13. Houston Texans (7-4) – Win on Monday, lose on Sunday. Houston’s 34-10 win over the Cowboys was somewhat of a misleading final. Houston only outgained Dallas by three yards. That was an emotional win in primetime against an in-state rival. I would be worried about Houston if they had to hit the road to face the 2-8 Titans. The favorite is just 1-6 ATS in the last seven games against the Titans and six of the last eight meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less.
14. Denver Broncos (6-5) – Sean Payton still owns the NFC South. The Broncos’ win over Atlanta finished a 4-0 sweep by Payton against his old foes, with the Broncos posting a +88 point differential. Denver is just 2-5 with a -36 point differential against everyone else this year.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) – It looks like Mike Evans is going to play this week, giving a big boost to the Bucs offense. An even bigger boost would come from the return of tackle Tristan Wirfs (MCL), who is questionable. I also think the Bucs got a team boost over the bye week by Atlanta losing again and letting Tampa Bay hang around in the NFC South race.
16. Los Angeles Rams (5-5) – The Rams defense has been much better at home this year, allowing 5.4 fewer points (26.6 to 21.2) in Los Angeles. They have gone ‘under’ in three of their last four home games. I’m curious to see how the Rams defense holds up after being forced to play 37 minutes last week in New England.
17. Seattle Seahawks (5-5) – I’m still not certain that Seattle has fixed all of its defensive issues. This team has played ‘under’ the total in four straight games, though, and their defensive yards per point of 16.6 over the last four weeks has them in the Top 10. They did allow the 49ers to go 7-for-11 on third downs but still held the 49ers to just 277 yards of total offense. That’s the first time they have held someone below 300 since Miami in Week 3.
18. Atlanta Falcons (6-5) – This team is soft. Again. If Raheem Morris is ever going to be anything but a footnote in Falcons history, the No. 1 thing he needs to change in this team’s culture is toughness. They are No. 25 in total defense, in the bottom half of the league against the run and the pass, and they have a laughable 10 sacks in 11 games this year. That’s Morris’ side of the ball. And his crew has allowed 27 points per game over their last seven games.
19. Cincinnati Bengals (4-7) – Evan McPherson could be kicking himself to the unemployment line. The fourth-year kicker is hitting a career-low percentage and his two misses last week in Los Angeles were brutal for both the Bengals and their backers.
20. Indianapolis Colts (5-6) – For all the talk about the Colts quarterback situation, watch Indy’s defense. These guys got off to a great start, holding four of their first six opponents to 17 points or below. They are coming back to earth, though, surrendering 25.3 points per game over the last four weeks and have fallen to No. 26 or worse in total defense, passing defense and rushing defense.
21. Chicago Bears (4-6) – The way the Packers bum-rushed Cairo Santos to block that potential game-winning kick, I don’t know if it would’ve mattered if that field goal was from 20 or 50 yards. That still doesn’t excuse Chicago’s decision, with 35 seconds and a timeout in their pocket, not to run more plays and try to get closer. Green Bay was going to send an all-out blitz to try to knock the Bears out of field goal range. A simple blitz-beater and one missed tackle and Chicago doesn’t need to kick. Matt Eberflus is now 14-29 in his coaching career.
22. Miami Dolphins (4-6) – Miami has covered the spread in eight straight games against the Patriots. They are 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 against New England and they have won their last four home games against the Pats by at least nine points (11.5 per game).
23. New Orleans Saints (4-7) – Darren Rizzi has had a positive effect in his two weeks at the helm in New Orleans. But two easy opponents (Falcons, Browns) at home have helped. And nothing has been more beneficial to the Saints than the improved health of their roster. And their overall health should get even better over the bye week.
24. New York Jets (3-8) – This is how bad the NFL is this year. The Jets are a pile of dysfunction and have played horrible football all season. Yet there are still EIGHT teams that are probably worse than they are! Since firing Robert Saleh, the Jets have allowed 26.2 points per game, No. 24 in the NFL.
25. Cleveland Browns (2-8) – The Browns are actually 4-4 SU in their last eight games against the Steelers. They lost tackle Dawand Jones for the year but are hoping to get Jedrick Wills back for Thursday’s game. If the Browns don’t have Wills their offense is going to be screwed against the Steelers pass rush. Cleveland’s offense is dead last in net yards per play this season at -1.4.
26. New England Patriots (3-8) – Just like with the Bo Nix plaudits, let’s slow down with Drake Maye. Maye is coming off a very good game. But he also hasn’t faced a playoff-caliber opponent yet. And his only two games against Top 12 pass defenses (Titans and Texans) ended with two losses, four interceptions, and a combined passer rating of around 75.
27. Dallas Cowboys (3-7) – I honestly can’t argue with Mike McCarthy’s decision making in that crucial third quarter when he took points off the board (poor Brandon Aubrey; it’s now as if that 64-yard-field goal never existed) to press for a touchdown. McCarthy knows he is not playing with a full deck and the Cowboys are one of the worst teams in the league right now. If they are going to win another game the rest of the year it is going to come from being a bit daring.
28. Carolina Panthers (3-7) – Carolina has been a double-digit underdog five other times in the last two seasons, going 0-5 ATS with their five losses coming by an average of 23.8 points per game. The Panthers are 2-8 ATS as a double-digit underdog dating back to 2021.
29. Las Vegas Raiders (2-8) – The Raiders have absolutely dominated the Broncos over the last five years. Las Vegas is 8-1 SU in their last nine games against Denver and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against one of their fiercest rivals.
30. Tennessee Titans (2-8) – It is incredible that the Titans are just 1-9 ATS this season. They aren’t a high-profile team facing inflated numbers. They have actually been favored three times and have only been a double-digit underdog twice. It is just rare to see the markets get it so egregiously wrong on a team in the NFL. At some point regression has to kick in and this team has to almost accidentally cover a number.
31. New York Giants (2-8) – Nailed it. Last week in this very space I called for the Giants to go to Tommy DeVito and now he’s been elevated from the No. 3 quarterback to the starter. How awful does Drew Lock have to be to lose out in a quarterback competition with Daniel Jones and Tommy DeVito? Keep Lock away from sharp objects this week.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) – Jacksonville allowed the sixth-most yards in NFL history last week against Detroit (675) and the yardage differential in that game (+505) was the sixth largest in league history. It was the largest differential since 1979. Jacksonville has a bye this week and then things soften up with four divisional games and games against the Jets and Raiders.
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