NFL Power Rankings Week 11
Does anyone remember way, way back in the good old days of Week 1 and Week 2 of this NFL season?
Remember when big underdogs were absolutely crushing it for bettors through the first month of the season? Fifteen of the first 17 underdogs of 6.0+ this season beat the number. In the first five weeks of the season, these big dogs were absolutely an automatic play.
Then that trend dissipated. First, the sportsbooks were a little stingier about laying out that many points. Second, the favorites started to pummel overmatched opponents, going 7-4 against big number in Weeks 6-8.
But is this underdog trend back on an upswing?
Underdogs of 6.0+ are coming off a very successful 6-2 week against the number. That record included upsets by teams like Carolina and New England, and near-upsets by Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. Over the last two weeks, these ugly dogs are 10-5 ATS.
Believe me, I know how hard it is to hold your nose and put your cash down on teams like the Panthers, Giants or Raiders. But that’s the point. The sportsbooks know you don’t want to bet on those teams, either. That’s why there’s a spread in the first place!
Understanding when and where you can find value from ugly underdogs is a key facet to NFL betting. No, you’re not going to get it right every time, and there are some teams that you need to leave for dead no matter how thick the spread gets.
I also know how frustrating it is to bet on one of the league’s dregs and lose. That feeling of, “Why the hell did I bet on these idiots?” really stays with you. But this is still a professional sport with razor thin margins of error. And blindly backing big favorites is always going to be a losing betting strategy, no matter what sport you’re talking about.
Nearly half of this week’s games feature spreads of 6.0 or higher. Six of the 14 games on the board involve big, ugly, sloppy dogs. And while no one is going to be sprinting to the window this week to slap money down on the Bears or Cowboys, the recent trend wave is suggesting that taking the points – wherever you can get them – might not be the worst idea.
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Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) – Yes, it is definitely a red flag that the two-time defending champions, currently undefeated on the season and the top team in the league, are posted as underdogs this week in Buffalo. Patrick Mahomes is 11-3 straight up and 12-1-1 against the spread in his last 14 games as an underdog.
2. Detroit Lions (8-1) – The Lions beat the Titans 52-14 as 13-point favorites three weeks ago. Can they do it again to another AFC South opponent? The Lions have played only two home games over the last two months (five of their last seven games have been on the road) and they have scored 94 points in those two games in Ford Field.
3. Baltimore Ravens (7-3) – I could barely believe it, but the Ravens have gotten their clocks cleaned by the Steelers so far this decade. Baltimore is just 1-7 SU against its hated rival. The favorite is just 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and the Ravens are 3-7 ATS in the last 10.
4. Buffalo Bills (8-2) – Surprisingly, the Bills have actually beaten the Chiefs three straight times – in the regular season. Buffalo’s wins in each of the last two seasons – both in Arrowhead – both came thinks to scores in the final two minutes of the game. This is the eighth meeting between these two teams since the start of 2020 but just the third time the Bills have hosted Kansas City (losing both).
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2) – I saw a great write-up detailing the decision for the fake punt on 4th-and-15 from their own 16-yard-line. It was absolutely the correct call given the look that Washington was showing (and it’s a look I bet Washington won’t show again this year). Just like with betting, process trumps results. If you’re making the right decision for the proper reasons, it will work out over time. Don’t get bogged down by one negative outcome.
6. San Francisco 49ers (5-4) – I’m not surprised this team wasn’t sharp coming out of the bye week. Most teams aren’t. And anyone that has read this space over the years knows that I think the bye week is the most overrated handicapping angle in football betting. San Francisco is 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS in its last six games against the Seahawks, with the average win by 14.7 points.
7. Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) – That’s now five straight wins for the Eagles, although they’ve covered the spread only three times in their last six games. Philadelphia’s defense has really turned it on, allowing just 13 points per game during this winning streak. They’ve held five of their last seven opponents to 17 points or fewer, and the ‘under’ is 5-3 in the last eight meetings.
8. Minnesota Vikings (7-2) – Sam Darnold is who we thought he was. The guy is always going to be a turnover waiting to happen. It has plagued him his entire career, dating back to college. He leads all quarterbacks in turnovers (13), and he has thrown five interceptions in the last two games against two of the worst defenses in the league.
9. Green Bay Packers (6-3) – The Packers are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games after a bye week. That includes losing to the Broncos last year as one-point underdogs. Green Bay is 20-3 straight up in their last 23 games against the Bears.
10. Washington Commanders (7-3) – Last week’s last-second loss to the Steelers snapped an eight-game ATS winning streak for the Commanders. Since their season-opening loss at Tampa Bay, Washington is 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. The Commanders are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against the Eagles and 5-0 ATS in their last five games in Philadelphia.
11. Arizona Cardinals (6-4) – The Cardinals head into the bye week on a four-game winning streak. And I’m sure if you asked the Cards, they would rather be playing this week to keep that momentum going. Arizona is currently posted as a one-point underdog next week at Seattle. Let’s keep an eye on this to see if the number changes based on what happens in the Seattle-San Francisco game.
12. Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) – Interesting situation for the Chargers this week. They are posted as a nominal favorite against the Bengals, not even getting the token three points. Despite the short, enticing number for the home team, the majority of the early action has come in against Los Angeles. Bettors are apparently unimpressed by the fact that just one of Los Angeles’ six wins have come against a team that currently has more than three wins.
13. Houston Texans (6-4) – Injuries are still the biggest anchor around this team’s neck. They just aren’t healthy. And that’s why they aren’t playing to their potential. The Texans have lost three of their last four games and still have three weeks to go until their bye. But they should be able to get themselves right against the Triple-A Cowboys on Monday.
14. Atlanta Falcons (6-4) – Twenty-four of Atlanta’s last 37 games have been determined by six points or less, including three straight. During that time, kicker Younghoe Koo has been incredibly clutch for this team. But right now, he is in a brutal slump. He has seven missed field goals through 10 games this year after missing just 14 over his past 66 games. I don’t think the Falcons have any choice but to ride it out with the former Pro Bowler.
15. Denver Broncos (5-5) – Over the past three games, the Broncos have one of the worst yards per point numbers (18.8) in the league. They are No. 23 in the league in third down conversions (35.6 percent) and No. 21 in red zone efficiency (53.1 percent). So can I stop hearing about how great Bo Nix is playing?
16. Cincinnati Bengals (4-6) – I’ve been saying it all year: I’m just staying away from this team. I want nothing to do with them. I’m not in a hurry to bet against Joe Burrow. But I also don’t trust these idiots to come through if I put my money down on them. The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and 5-0 ATS on the road this season.
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) – Tampa Bay is another team that has been shredded by injuries. However, despite missing starters all over the field, they just went toe-to-toe with the Chiefs and 49ers, two of the best teams in football. It’s not a stretch to imagine them winning both of those games. And if that were the case, they would probably be in the Top 10. This is definitely a team to watch coming out of a week off.
18. Los Angeles Rams (4-5) – The Rams are at a bit of a situational disadvantage this week. They have to travel east for an early (10 a.m. PST) kickoff and they have to do so off a short week. Making matters worse, they are doing so with the dark cloud of a frustrating home loss hanging over their heads. This is a very young roster. How they show up in this tricky spot is going to tell us a lot about the maturity of this squad.
19. Seattle Seahawks (4-5) – I think the Tyrel Dodson situation is just plain weird. Dodson was the team’s starting linebacker and leading tackler. They cut him this week. They didn’t demote him or change his role. They just cut the leading tackler on a defense that is allowing 29.7 points per game over their last six games.
20. Chicago Bears (4-5) – Anyone that thinks firing Shane Waldron and elevating Thomas Brown to offensive coordinator is going to spark the Bears offense is kidding themselves. Brown is an idiot. He was a running backs coach bouncing around college football for a decade before taking over as the offensive coordinator for Carolina last year. Ask Bryce Young how that worked out.
21. Indianapolis Colts (4-6) – I really don’t know what anyone thought was going to happen when Joe Flacco took over the Colts offense. Flacco was turnover machine last year for the Browns, too. Everyone looks at him like was a savior last season. He was only a “savior” because the Browns had a Top 5 defense. Flacco has now has 13 interceptions and seven fumbles in his last 11 games under center (nine starts).
22. Miami Dolphins (3-6) – Win on Monday, lose on Sunday. Yes, Miami has gotten healthier and has been playing better football over the last two weeks. But there is absolutely no way that I trust this team to lay more than a touchdown against anyone. They are just 1-4 ATS as a favorite this year after going 9-3 ATS when laying points last season.
23. New York Jets (3-7) – The Jets are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games as a favorite. However, all three of their straight up wins this season have come when they were laying points. New York is still a debacle. and I don’t trust them for a second laying points. However, if you kick out their 25-22 loss to the Patriots on Oct. 27, the Jets have taken losses against a bunch of the top teams in the NFL (49ers, Vikings, Bills, Steelers).
24. Cleveland Browns (2-7) – This week marks Jameis Winston’s return to New Orleans. He didn’t leave much of a mark in his four years in The Bayou, but I’m sure there are some current Saints that would love to get a good hit on Winston. The Browns are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog when playing against NFC opponents.
25. New England Patriots (3-7) – The Patriots have won two of their last three games and have covered three straight spreads. It is smoke and mirrors, though. This team isn’t going to be some kind of spoiler down the stretch. They’ve beaten the Jets and Bears – two teams that are completely off the rails – and they couldn’t beat the Titans, one of the league’s worst. New England has faced only two teams currently in the playoff hunt – Texans and 49ers – and they lost to the two by a combined 37 points.
26. New Orleans Saints (3-7) – Yes, I think that the “interim coach bounce” is going to carry the Saints a little while longer. Darren Rizzi is a genuine character and comes across as an old-school Football Guy. After years of dealing with the mewling quim that is Dennis Allen, I’m sure this locker room appreciates Rizzi’s approach. That attitude still won’t be able to compensate for the injuries that have laid waste to this roster. But there is still just enough talent among the starting 22 for New Orleans to be a thorn in bettors’ side down the stretch.
27. Dallas Cowboys (3-6) – I’m not even going to waste my time with these losers. I will just say that I hope that they start Trey Lance, because that guy is atrocious.
28. Carolina Panthers (3-7) – Imagine for a second that Bryce Young had never started a game for the Panthers until he was called into action a couple weeks ago. Imagine he had the opportunity to sit and learn before being pressed into service. Had that been the case, and then you watched him for the first time these past couple games, you would probably think, “Man, that kid can play a little bit” rather than the common current perception with is, “That kid is a bust.”
29. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) – Just ask yourself: do you really think that a week off is going to help this team at all? Do you think that these players, sitting on a 2-7 team that is going nowhere, spent the last two weeks in Las Vegas doing anything productive or anything that is going to spark some second-half resurgence? Me neither.
30. Tennessee Titans (2-7) – The Titans are an NFL-worst 1-8 ATS this season. Also, despite having one of the league’s best overall defenses and worst overall offenses, the Titans are 3-1 against the total in their last four games and 6-2 on the ‘over’ in their last eight games.
31. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8) – Somehow this dung pile has covered the spread in four straight games. It is ridiculous. The Jaguars defense is pathetic and has allowed an average of 30 points per game over their last eight games. However, they are now 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and one of the scrubbiest covers in the league.
32. New York Giants (2-8) – It’s Tommy DeVito time. The Giants should’ve had DeVito listed as the No. 2 quarterback last week in Germany. DeVito isn’t any good. But he gave the team a spark last year and could do the same this season. Daniel Jones is finished. Kurt Warner laid bare all the wide-open receivers and easy throws that Jones missed last week against a pathetic Panthers defense. Jones should never start another game for the Giants.
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