NFL Power Rankings Week 10
Choices have consequences.
Don’t worry – I’m not here to give you some kind of half-cocked lecture about the election. Like you, I am looking forward to this rotten business being behind us. As much as I am going to miss daily e-mails from Gretchen Whitmer and Marco Rubio, nothing will bring me more joy this winter than being able to watch a full weekend of college and pro football without seeing a single political-oriented ad.
However, I do just want to make my position clear: life is about choices, and choices have consequences.
There’s a great quote from Jason Bateman’s Marty Byrd character at the beginning of the “Ozark” series:
“Patience. Frugality. Sacrifice. When you boil it down, what do those three things have in common? Those are choices. Money is not peace of mind. Money is not happiness. Money is, at its essence that measure of a man's choices.”
Choices have repercussions. They do in your family life. They do with your job. And they do with sports betting. I have always been a believer that people are defined more by their actions than their intentions. Both matter. But at the end of the day, what you decide to actually do is more important than why you did it.
Who to bet on. How much to bet. Which teams to avoid. How to manage your money. When to quit. When to press. These are all choices that gamblers make on a daily, weekly, or yearly basis. And, as you know, those decisions all have both immediate and long-term ramifications.
And you must live with them.
I think sometimes it is easy to make decisions led by emotion rather than reason. I’ve always said that emotion is one of a gambler’s worst enemies. And when we ignore long-term implications and make choices, in any avenue of life, out of fear, or hatred, or spite, we are usually making the wrong decision.
You are, in essence, the summation of your choices in life. We can try to rationalize things after the fact. But the point remains: your decisions actually do define who you are and what you are as a person, a family member, a co-worker a gambler, and a human being.
Don’t take these things lightly. And never make a choice if you’re not prepared to deal with the consequences.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (8-0) – Like so many others, my immediate reaction to Patrick Mahomes coming up lame on a non-contact play on Monday was shock and horror. Fortunately, Mahomes didn’t blow out his Achilles (which was my first instinct). However, that one moment just goes to show just how truly epic their attempted three-peat is and just how delicate it will be.
2. Detroit Lions (7-1) – It is absolutely incredible that this team just continues to clear every bar put in front of it. The Lions have covered the spread in six straight games and they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10. This team is an ATM machine. And at this point, they are pretty much a blind bet until they don’t beat a number.
3. Baltimore Ravens (6-3) – The Ravens have beaten Cincinnati three straight times. But only one of those victories was by more than three points. The favorite is 5-3 ATS in the last eight meetings.
4. Minnesota Vikings (6-2) – Sam Darnold had his first game with multiple interceptions last Sunday. He’s now thrown at least one INT in six of his eight games this year. He is on pace for 15 picks this year, and I still don’t know how much I trust him to hold it together over the second half of the season. Remember: Darnold has never started more than 13 games in any season in his career.
5. Green Bay Packers (6-3) – Jordan Love was 3-of-10 for 24 yards with an interception against the blitz on Sunday vs. the Lions. He has 5 interceptions against the blitz this season. He is 29th in rating against the blitz.
6. Buffalo Bills (7-2) – That’s now four wins in a row for the Bills. They have scored 30 or more points in three straight games and six of their last nine overall. Buffalo has made 17 red zone trips in their last three games, scoring 11 touchdowns, and they are No. 6 in the league in red zone efficiency this year.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) – Picking up wide receiver Mike Williams and linebacker Preston Smith are solid moves that should pay dividends for the Steelers this year. However, don’t look for an instant impact. Players have to learn new schemes, systems and calls, and develop chemistry with their teammates. Don’t overreact to these deadline deals.
8. Washington Commanders (7-2) – The Commanders are on an 8-0 ATS run, winning seven of those eight games outright and with the one loss coming in a competitive game at Baltimore. That said, only one of the seven teams that Washington has beaten this year (Arizona) currently has a winning record, and their last four victories have come against the Browns, Panthers, Bears and Giants.
9. Houston Texans (6-3) – Nico Collins is expected to return this week and give the Texans offense a much-needed jolt. Houston is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games overall. And the more you dig in on their schedule the last two seasons, the more you see a Texans team that has beaten up on a lot of bottom-feeders.
10. San Francisco 49ers (4-4) – Last season, the 49ers had to travel to Florida out of their bye week and they thrashed Jacksonville, 34-3. San Francisco has gone 4-1 straight up in its last five games after a week of rest. They have also hammered the Bucs each of the past two seasons, winning 27-14 last year and 35-7 in 2022 (with both games at home).
11. Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) – I know I’m not the only one that has pointed it out this week, but Nick Sirianni is a stone-cold loser. Philadelphia may have been better off losing that game to Jacksonville, because if they had I feel like Sirianni would’ve been axed the following day for his gross mismanagement of what should’ve been a blowout win over the Jaguars. He is wasting one of the most talented rosters in the NFL with his weekly stupidity.
12. Atlanta Falcons (6-3) – Since going 4-for-8 in the red zone against Carolina, the Falcons have cashed in on six straight red zone trips. They are the only team in the NFL that is 100% in the red zone over the last three weeks, and they are averaging 29.2 points per game over their last five. I still don’t trust the defense at all. But Atlanta’s offense is humming, and this group is 4-1 ATS in its last five and have gone ‘over’ in four of their last six.
13. Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) – Don’t buy in. I’m telling you. The Chargers are tough. They are efficient. They are exceptional at playing and winning low-scoring games. But all of their success this year has come against dregs. They get another one this week when they host the Titans. But after that, the Chargers play six straight games against teams that either have a winning record or made the playoffs last year. This team is average, at best.
14. Denver Broncos (5-4) – The Broncos are just 1-16 straight up in their last 17 games against the Chiefs. They always play Kansas City tough, and their last six losses to them has come by an average of 7.2 points. Denver is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with the Chiefs, and they have been really good on the road this year, going 4-1 ATS away from home.
15. Arizona Cardinals (5-4) – That is now three straight wins both SU and ATS for the Cardinals, who are very quietly positioning themselves as a sleeper wild card team out in the NFC. I love how they keep force-feeding stud tight end Trey McBride the football. But they absolutely must find a way to get Greg Dortch involved in the offense. He is just too explosive not to get more touches.
16. Chicago Bears (4-4) – The talent is there. The culture is not. They had the meltdown in Washington. They spent the week before the Arizona game passive-aggressively trashing the coaching staff. D.J. Moore walked off the field DURING a play last week and gave no real explanation. This is a team imploding, and there is not going to be some kind of galvanizing turnaround for this group.
17. Los Angeles Rams (4-4) – I have absolutely no idea how the Rams held on to beat Seattle last week. I know ‘luck’ is a dirty word in some circles, but that really was a lucky win. L.A. fumbled three times and recovered all of them, benefitted from three Geno Smith interceptions (including a 103-yard pick six), and were outgained. Those are some serious red flags.
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) – I texted it as soon as they scored: “Tampa Bay should absolutely go for two right now.” When you are a significant underdog, on the road, and you have the momentum, you should absolutely play for the win in a situation like the one Tampa Bay faced on Monday night. We will see if the disappointment of that loss lingers this week against a rested 49ers team.
19. Seattle Seahawks (4-5) – Right now, that loss to the Giants is an anchor around this team’s neck. Seattle has really played a brutal schedule. But they have played down to their level of competition, losing to the Giants and needing OT to beat the Patriots. That’s not the mark of a playoff-caliber team. Seattle is 2-7 ATS heading into its bye week and has a lot of problem areas to address.
20. Indianapolis Colts (4-5) – That shot of Anthony Richardson yawning on the sideline last week when the camera cut to him was hilarious. And kind of sums up the Colts quarterback situation. Anyone that thought Joe Flacco was some kind of magical answer for this team is kidding themselves. The Colts are still 7-2 ATS (5-1 ATS as an underdog), though, and have been one of the best bets in the league this year.
21. Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) – At this point I’m still just kind of staying away from the Bengals. There is just no telling what team is going to show up from week to week. They are 3-1 ATS in their last four games. And the more I look at their schedule to this point, the more I see a team that has faced a lot of tough opponents. Remember: they blew a 10-point lead to Baltimore and lost to the Chiefs at the buzzer. This is still a very dangerous team, albeit one that I just don’t trust.
22. New York Jets (3-6) – This team feels like a crazy ex-girlfriend that was really hot in the sack. Bettors are trying to break up with them once and for all, but just keep getting seduced by them. Resist the urge. This is still a flawed, poorly coached team with weak leadership. It took some superhuman plays from Garrett Wilson just to beat a banged-up Houston team. Things still aren’t right with this group.
23. Dallas Cowboys (3-5) – Dak Prescott is apparently worth $60 million on the field and 4.5 points on the spread off it. The Cowboys were 3.0-point underdogs at Philadelphia before it was announced that Prescott will miss multiple weeks with a hamstring issue. Now the line has spiked to 7.5. CeeDee Lamb is also questionable this week with an AC joint injury. Judging by his reaction to getting tapped on the shoulder after a two-point conversion late in the Atlanta game, I would be surprised if Lamb takes the field.
24. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) – Antonio Pierce doesn’t get credit for his “decisive leadership” for firing Luke Getsy and his entire offensive coaching staff this week when he was the one that hired them in the first place.
25. New York Giants (2-6) – It was a mistake for this team not to sell some parts at the trade deadline. But I understand it. The head coach and the general manager know that they are going to get fired at the end of this season, barring some miraculous second-half turnaround. That isn’t going to happen. But it is even less likely to happen with fewer contributing players.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) – Trevor Lawrence leading the Jaguars into the red zone and onto the verge of a miraculous comeback victory only to throw an ill-advised, game-ending interception in the end zone was the most Trevor Lawrence thing ever.
27. Miami Dolphins (2-6) – I feel like the Rams – a small home favorite on Monday Night Football – are going to be one of the most popular bets on the board this week. Miami is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and have lost six of their last seven games outright. But something tells me they are going to have a chance to give the sportsbooks a major win next Monday.
28. Cleveland Browns (2-7) – Just like with the Colts and Joe Flacco, anyone that thought Jameis Winston was some kind of magical answer for this team is kidding themselves.
29. New England Patriots (2-7) – Am I the only one that is not marveling at Drake Maye’s “fearlessness”? The guy already has one concussion this year. He plays with a reckless disregard for his body. That is not what I want out of my supposed franchise quarterback. He is young. He is stupid. And if he gets another concussion, then he’s going to be on the Tua track, and that’s not good for anyone.
30. Tennessee Titans (2-6) – The Titans have two wins this year and in three other games they lost by seven points or less. That defense is good enough to keep them in games. No, they can’t compete with top-tier teams like the Lions and Bills, who blew them out. But mid-tier teams like the Chargers are definitely in Tennessee’s wheelhouse.
31. New Orleans Saints (2-7) – We have seen teams rally in the short term when a head coach gets fired. And the fact that the Saints are facing their hated rivals this week adds an extra layer of emotion for New Orleans this week.
32. Carolina Panthers (2-7) – The Panthers are 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games after a loss. And after winning the first three games of the 2021 season, they have not won games on back-to-back weeks since. (They did win back-to-back games once in 2022, but they also had a bye week in between the games.)
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